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Zogby: Obama tanks in North Carolina polling, loses 7 points in one day.

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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 04:47 AM
Original message
Zogby: Obama tanks in North Carolina polling, loses 7 points in one day.
Edited on Sat May-03-08 04:50 AM by NJSecularist
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1496

Today's Polling:

Obama: 46 (-4)
Clinton: 37 (+3)


Yesterday's Polling:


Obama: 50
Clinton: 34


UTICA, New York - Democrat Hillary Clinton made gains in North Carolina yesterday, drawing within single digits of rival Barack Obama, while the two remain deadlocked in Indiana with just days before Tuesday's primary elections in those states, a pair of new Zogby daily tracking telephone polls show.

Obama leads in North Carolina by a 46% to 37% margin, with 17% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won 43% support, compared to 42% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.

The telephone surveys, conducted May 1-2, 2008, are the latest of Zogby's two-day daily tracking surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 627 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. In Indiana, 629 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll also carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's call center in Upstate New York.

In North Carolina, Obama leads in all age groups with one exception - those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied. But Clinton closed the gap in some age groups, compared to yesterday's two-day tracking report.


Obama is losing support in North Carolina. At this rate, with the way undecideds break towards Hillary, Hillary could get within 5 points. In a state where the primary will have around 35% of the electorate being African American, and he'll probably get 90-10 of that vote, if he can't win by 10+ despite that built-in advantage, it spells trouble for his electability. His inability to court the white working class vote spells doom for our chances in November if he is our nominee.
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 04:53 AM
Response to Original message
1. so you are saying that Obama lost half his support in 24 hours
do you know anything about statistics or polling?

and why are you judging electability now based on one 24 hour period of a poll?

i mean by your standards, yesterday we couldn't pick Hillary because she was down 16 points but today we pick Hillary because she made up 7 points in one day.

are you that stupid? seriously?
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 04:55 AM
Response to Original message
2. at this rate
Obama will lose the Puerto Rico primary and only receive -27% of the vote while Hillary is on track to get 169%.

:wtf: moron.
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SparkyMac Donating Member (288 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:35 AM
Response to Reply #2
17. At this rate -- by Tuesday -- Obama will vote for Clinton
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:04 AM
Response to Reply #17
23. Obama, after all, is a pretty bright guy
--p!
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AZ Criminal JD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #17
49. It will be the first smart thing he did.
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durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:03 AM
Response to Original message
3. Let's hope people are finally waking up and realizing what a Fraud
the Hopium dealer is.
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BeyondGeography Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #3
24. That's funny...Ignorant knuckledragger Gail Collins says Hillary's a fraud
Hillary Clinton, who jumped on the gas-tax holiday bandwagon posthaste, wants to pay for it with a windfall profits tax on oil companies. This makes her plan much more fiscally responsible. Not only does she balance the books, she turns a proposal that was unlikely to ever get passed into one that could not make it through the Senate if Ronald Reagan and John F. Kennedy both rose from the dead and hand-carried it there.

There are few things more satisfying than taking a strong stand in favor of something that is never going to happen. Free pander!

“I find it, frankly, a little offensive that people who don’t have to worry about filling up their gas tank or what they buy when they go to the supermarket think it’s somehow illegitimate to provide relief for ... millions and millions of Americans,” said Clinton the other day. She rammed the point home with a photo-op at a gasoline station while, as The Washington Post pointed out, her own fleet of S.U.V.’s ran their engines patiently right out of camera range.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/opinion/03collins.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
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leftofcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:07 AM
Response to Reply #3
26. They have
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #26
46. I can't wait for the movie "The Bamboozler" to come out..
Where the story of Obama's ascension to politics is told on the widescreen!
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Double T Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:07 AM
Response to Original message
4. HRC is ON FIRE!!!!!!!!!
obama has begun his fade to obscurity.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:18 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. Ask your friend about Indiana. He's slightly ahead of her according to Zogby
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leftofcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:08 AM
Response to Reply #11
27. You mean Zogby the Republican who admits to skewering polls?
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:36 AM
Response to Reply #27
32. Then why are you touting Clinton's slight rise in Zogby's NC poll if Zogby is such a fraud?
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TheDudeAbides Donating Member (240 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:41 AM
Response to Reply #27
36. It's too close to call in both states n/t
Edited on Sat May-03-08 07:42 AM by TheDudeAbides
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:11 AM
Response to Original message
5. You're talking to yourself again -- several times in one thread!
It's amazing.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:13 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Wow- Do You Think NJ Is Every Poster In This Thread?
For the record I think Zo(m)by is a charlatan...
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melody Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #7
58. I'm certain of it n/t
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rodeodance Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:36 AM
Response to Reply #5
18. I wonder if you can read names. ?????
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:11 AM
Response to Original message
6. LOL! OMG! The melodramatics!
This is a one day corrective which brings Zogby's numbers back to where other NC polls are.

Or, if we play your game, she has the momentum and should definitely win NC now. Hell, she's gaining seven points a day. By Tuesday, i'll expect her to be up by 14.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:14 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. Wouldn't It Be Fair To Suggest Zo(m)by Gets The Numbers Zo(m)by Wants
Edited on Sat May-03-08 06:15 AM by DemocratSinceBirth
Oh- I know he nailed PN... But nine or ten was the consensus spread...
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:20 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. His numbers definitely seem to fluctuate wildly, much more than other firms.
I have found myself wanting to give him the benefit of the doubt after PA. Then again, maybe should stick with either the "cooked to the consensus" or the "broken clock is right twice a day" explanation.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:30 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Hillary Wins IN By Around Five And Loses NC By Less Than Ten
That's my prediction... That's the conventional wisdom and that's where I expect Zo(m)by to be at the end...


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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:49 AM
Response to Reply #16
21. My prediction: IN: Hillary 51, Obama 48. NC: Obama 54, Hillary 45, O 1.
Edited on Sat May-03-08 06:49 AM by jefferson_dem
Hillary's dream ends as the media narrative finally starts reflecting the truth about the state of the race, and SDs move to end it for real.
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book_worm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:17 AM
Response to Original message
9. I'm not worried. The undecideds even if they broke 2-1 for Hill would give him a real double digit
win not some 9.2 victory which you spin into a double digit victory. Also black voters are at 17% undecided, they will more likely in the end, like other states, swing heavily towards Obama.

On the other hand, I don't see you talking about the Indiana numbers where Obama is now up one point 43-42. That has to be worrisome becuz if she loses Indiana or barely wins it she's toast.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:19 AM
Response to Reply #9
14. The Numbers Are Neither Worrisome Or Encouraging Because Zo(m)by Is A Charlatan
He shows a race in both states that the majority of other pollsters do not see...
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Yossariant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:17 AM
Response to Original message
10. LOL! Maybe somebody took the calculator away from James.
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GoldieAZ49 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:18 AM
Response to Original message
12. Sounds like voters are waking up
good thing for America
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
52. I'll second that!!! They are awakening.
I'd like to see HRC take both states BIG on Tuesday.
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DemVet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:19 AM
Response to Original message
13. The Obama people all got excited with yesterday's poll.
It turns out that poll was an anomaly rather than Barry losing half his support in one day.
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:27 AM
Response to Reply #13
28. Yeah.. and every poll shows him ahead. You might want
to be concerned about Hillary. She was tied one day in Indiana and the next day he took the lead. Also, I don't know why Hillbots keep calling him Barry in a demeaning way. There is nothing wrong with his name!
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DemVet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:41 AM
Response to Reply #28
35. NO...
there's nothing wrong with the name Barry...unlike Hildabeast and the other names Hillary Clinton has been called on this board. Some of your kind (Obama supporters) said the name "Barry" was a little kids name and was demeaning.

Go figure.
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #13
34. And you got all excitited about today's poll.
Do you get a pattern here? All polls fluctuate from day to day, but there hasn't been one poll yet that has shown Clinton ahead in NC.
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DemVet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:42 AM
Response to Reply #34
37. I am well versed...
...in the Decision Sciences.

Interestingly enough, Obama polls BETTER than the primary result and Hillary polls WORSE. We'll see how NC and IN turn out.
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #37
51. I can think of at least one state, Wisconsin, where it was the other way around.
But in states where Obama does do worse than the polls, I wonder if it might be the Bradley effect. I hope not because I would hate to think that so many Democrats are racists.
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Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:36 AM
Response to Original message
19. It depends on where they're polling.
I just read another article about heavy early voting in an Obama-favored area.
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ecdab Donating Member (834 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 06:46 AM
Response to Original message
20. yeah, yeah - and according to the Zogby poll in Indiana Obama increased his
lead by infinity.

Going from a tie to a one point lead.
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d00mzday Donating Member (111 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:02 AM
Response to Original message
22. Objects in the Rear View Mirror May Appear Closer Than They Are
“Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?”

Robert Orben
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Mudoria Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:06 AM
Response to Original message
25. Polls this primary year have been all over the map
Edited on Sat May-03-08 07:06 AM by Mudoria
from what I've seen. I've really gotten to where the only attention I pay to them is when they show a race getting closer, in which those have been fairly accurate. As far as who actually wins, well, thats been another story as far as accuracy.
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Bensthename Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:33 AM
Response to Original message
29. Umm, you may want to look here for better polling data
Obama is up in all polls

Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 04/26 ----05/02 -- 48.8 41.8 Obama +7.0
Zogby --------------- 05/01 - 05/02 46 37 Obama +9.0
Rasmussen 05/01 ----- 05/01 05/02 49 40 Obama +9.0
InsiderAdvantage----- 05/01 - 05/01 49 44 Obama +5.0
Research 2000 04/29 - 04/30 500 LV 51 44 Obama +7.0
Mason-Dixon 04/28 --- 04/29 400 LV 49 42 Obama +7.0
SurveyUSA 04/26 ----- 04/28 727 LV 49 44 Obama +5.0

Today from real clear politics.
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:40 AM
Response to Reply #29
33. The trend is downward
On RCP, a week ago, Obama led by 10%; today, 1.3%, and a few more polls with Obama in the lead will drop off the roster on Monday.

The trend is worrisome. At least worrisome enough to cause a general Obama supporter freak-out on DU.

Quick! We need at least three more delegate defections AND a photo of Hillary with wrinkles!

--p!
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nyccitizen Donating Member (309 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:23 AM
Response to Reply #33
39. 1.3%? You looked at the wrong average

1.3% is what he leads in the *National* RCP average... He leads by 7% in North Carolina. Down by 3%, not an 8.7% drop.
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:34 AM
Response to Original message
30. Yesterday some Clinton supporters called Zogby unreliable when he had Obama up by double digits.
But now that Clinton has picked up a bit in this latest poll, suddenly Zogby is the greatest thing since sliced bread. And what about Indiana? Obama actually picked up a point there overnight to pull ahead (while still well within the margin of error) and you don't even mention that. Yet most observers agree that Obama can survive a narrow win in NC, whereas Clinton cannot survive a narrow loss in Indiana. So really, which campaign should be sweating bullets right now?
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onenote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 07:35 AM
Response to Original message
31. so your premise is that the white working class that supports HRC will not vote for Obama
Does that also mean that the AA populatoin and young voters will abandon HRC is she's the nod? Because if that's the case, we're screwed either way, aren't we?
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SwampG8r Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #31
44. the white woking class
thinks hillary is a turd
and they are right
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godai Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:05 AM
Response to Original message
38. Clinton's at 37% and you're happy?
NC will be an Obama victory, around 6-10%. You need to worry about Indiana. If Clinton loses Indiana, this nightmare is finally over.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 11:47 AM
Response to Reply #38
42. Obama should win North Carolina by 20% with the size of the black population.
Edited on Sat May-03-08 11:50 AM by NJSecularist
Hillary will probably win 45%+ of the vote.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #42
43. He'll win NC by more than the 9.2% "blowout" she had in PA.....
...
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dtotire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
40. If Hillary is Nominated
Obama should accept the VP slot. This would be a winning combination. Obama should be prepped for 2016 election. It is more important that McCain does not become President. (I prefer Obama)
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #40
56. Wouldn't that be more like "Assistant Vice President"?
Because, let's get real here, wouldn't Bill really be her de facto vice president?
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Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
41. OH NO!!! OBAMA MOVED WITHING THE MOE!!!!
Thats what its there for.
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Hoof Hearted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
45. I don't trust ANYTHING Zogby does, especially anything with Obama in it.
He's too far in the tank to be credible.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 12:21 PM
Response to Reply #45
47. Agreed, but for Obama to lose this much support in 1 day should be troubling to his supporters . n/t
Edited on Sat May-03-08 12:23 PM by NJSecularist
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Hoof Hearted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #47
48. True, I just don't trust Zogby's motivation. Ever.
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Tellurian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #48
50. Right, especially where Zogby Jr..
is involved in the Obama Campaign...
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barb162 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
53. Great!!! HRC for President!
and K&R
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depakid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
54. Does anyone really believe that Zogby reflects reality?
and that Obama actually "lost" 7% of his support in a day? -or anything even close to that?

If so, I know a bookie or two who love to meet you....
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Spiffarino Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 02:24 PM
Response to Original message
55. You are so funny.
:rofl:

Seriously, you're killing me!
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SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 02:31 PM
Response to Original message
57. ATTN; NJS
time to switch back to Obama after the Guam win today...
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