Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Simple MATH and Graphs: What Obama needs to Clinch

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread		 This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 03:44 PM
Original message
Simple MATH and Graphs: What Obama needs to Clinch
Edited on Sat May-03-08 04:44 PM by tiptoe
Source: The Excel Delegate Calculator by TruthIsAll, May 3, 2008

For updating with latest Primary data + Graphs: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.xls

Obama currently leads Clinton by 1490–1336 in pledged delegates.
In order to gain a majority (1627) of pledged delegates:
– Obama needs 137 (34%) of the 408 remaining unpledged delegates
– Clinton needs 291 (71%) of the 408 remaining unpledged delegates.

On Feb. 20, Clinton led Obama by 81 super delegates (246–165).
She now leads by 20 (269–249).
Obama has won 84 (79%) of the last 107 super delegates.

If Obama wins 50% of the remaining pledged delegates,
he will need 82 (30%) of the 277 uncommitted super delegates to clinch the nomination. 

 
     1490 Pledged, Current Obama Delegates
     +204 Pledged, Projected Obama Delegates (@ 50% of 408 Remaining)
     ----
1694 Pledged Delegates, Current + Projected
  
     +249 Super, Current Obama Delegates
     + 82 Super, Uncommitted Obama Delegates (@ 30% of 277 Remaining)
     ----
 331 Super Delegates, Current + Uncommitted
----
  
2025 Total Delegates - Obama Clinches Nomination


Pledged Delegate Projection -

Super Delegate Trend -

Super Delegates Needed by Obama to Win Nomination, by various projected primary vote shares -

Obama Total Delegate Projection, Pledged + Super -


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
RiverStone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 04:00 PM
Response to Original message
1. I like the trends!
Thanks for sharing.:hi:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. 188 of 408 remaining unpledged delegates up for grabs Tuesday, NC & IN:
Edited on Sat May-03-08 04:59 PM by tiptoe
North Carolina Dem Primary polls

Indiana Dem Primary polls
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
speedoo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-03-08 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Meaning that Obama will be that much closer to clinching Tuesday night. nm
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. Obama should get the 1627 pledged delegate majority in Oregon on May 20
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
here_is_to_hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 10:35 AM
Response to Reply #4
15. But the AOL poll says she is up by 25%!!11!!1!!! SERIES!! n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #15
26. I think that AOL now stands for All Old Lesbians
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
KansasVoter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:41 AM
Response to Original message
5. Great Post!!!! She is DONE!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. She sure is!
: )
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 01:34 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. and all the *Co media only can do is attempt to destroy Obama with Rev Wright trash:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5803358&mesg_id=5803358">The Media Is Doing An All Assault on Obama This Weekend
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 01:46 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. while says NYT: OBAMA Eminently Electable with NO sign of Backlash with White Voters due to Wright
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5798932&mesg_id=5798932
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 01:51 AM
Response to Original message
9. Obama is expected to net about 5 SDs on Monday
3 IL add ons alone
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TragedyandHope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 04:16 AM
Response to Original message
10. It's all in the numbers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 04:21 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. LoL!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 04:21 AM
Response to Original message
12. Looking good!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
liberalla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 07:02 AM
Response to Original message
13. kick!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #13
19. appreciated!

Kicks and Recommends always helpful! Thanks.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-05-08 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #13
34. k
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 09:54 AM
Response to Original message
14. Obama should clinch the nomination just after the final primaries on June 3
see Delegate Calculator "Obama Delegate Projection" (at the bottom)
-Download the Excel Delegate Calculator to input your own percentages
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/DelegateCalculator.htm
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #14
21. The delegate calculator is broken.
Hillary keeps losing! :grr:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #21
25. and that Kantor video was doctored!
Edited on Sun May-04-08 01:41 PM by tiptoe

Whom can you trust?!
:sarcasm:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 03:53 PM
Response to Reply #25
30. Non sequiter.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
9119495 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 10:59 AM
Response to Original message
16. nice
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #16
17. thanks for that!
Kicking and Recommending is appreciated!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Johnny__Motown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #17
22. K&R
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 02:04 PM
Response to Reply #22
27. alright!..thnx nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Bonobo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
18. Now if you can make it into a cartoon, maybe the remaining 10% on this site will get it. nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
muryan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #18
28. LOL n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TBF Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
20. Nicely done - we're almost there. Go Obama!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Kaleko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 12:32 PM
Response to Original message
23. K & R for appealing to reason via simple facts
:patriot:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 01:02 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. but of course!
Thank you! :toast:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DMorgan Donating Member (363 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 02:43 PM
Response to Original message
29. Look and all the Clinton supporters contributing to this thread...
Edited on Sun May-04-08 02:44 PM by DMorgan
They don't DO math, they do wish fulfillment thinking, Obama trashing, and name calling to fellow Americans who think Clinton is a fraud and a panderer.

Thankfully, so far, at least, fewer voters have believed all that. The trend continues, as Clinton continues to lose Super Delegates.

Now she needs over 70% of remaining Primary voters in order to come close, and almost 80% to really put it away.

Any Clinton supporter here want to tell us how that is going to happen?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
sfam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 03:55 PM
Response to Original message
31. Yet another elitist math post. Next thing you'll be asking us to listen to economists...nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-05-08 02:04 AM
Response to Reply #31
33. kick! nt
:)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
gObama08 Donating Member (14 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-05-08 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #31
35. you knew it was coming
all your maths are belong to us
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-06-08 06:53 AM
Response to Reply #35
36. k!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-04-08 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
32. K/R
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Wed May 15th 2024, 05:58 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC