Delusion and Denial

McCain has bipartisan appeal (and a track record of it) which will attract indies and the Reagan Democrats.

Obama loses 20% of whites in the dem party (according to PEW Research and that was in Feb before Wright and San Fran comments)





So if Obama is the nominee, we will have President McCain.




On what the Obama followers consider 'the bright side' they vow the black dems will not support Hillary, (no poll I have seen supports this claim) so there goes most of 10-12% of black voters, resulting in President McCain also.

For a year that was a given to go democratic, it looks like McCain (who didn't have the support of the far right of his own party) is going to skate right into being POTUS.


Historical election wouldn't you say?


So what do you dems say are we going to have a united party or implode regardless of who the Super Delegates 'select' (because neither can win without those pesky seemingly undemocratic SD votes)?

I didn't think so, politics is normally so personal and identity politics sucks.

I'm no polling expert, so please explain to me how something conducted between Feb 20-24, 2008 has relevence on 5/4/08? Just minutes ago someone tried to foist off a week old poll as something brand new http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5814883 Are you people stupid, or do you think we are?

I may be wrong, but wasn't the John Edwards campaign still active on Feb 28? Wasn't Mike Huckabee still campaigning? Wasn't this before anyone really knew about Rev. Wright or sniper fire? What possible relevence could this have. I'm not trying to be snarky...I'm just amazed that this is the best poll out there.

Huckabee was still around but being ignored by the media and McSame. The relevance is Pew offers the most detail, at least to the public. Perhaps others offer more detail to subscribers. Pew gives the most in depth data to the general public.

The Wright thing was addressed in Goldie's post. His numbers are surely worse now than they were then due to pastorgate I and II and his condescension toward small town folks.

Here is how the RCP GE poll average has changed since the end of February...

2/28: Obama 47.5, McSame 43.4
Current: Obama 45.8, McSame 44.7

2/27*: McSame 46.6, Clinton 44.7
Current: Clinton 47.2, McSame 43.8

Clinton gained over 5 points during this period while Obama lost 3 points. Obama now is significantly weaker as a GE candidate and Clinton stronger than two months ago.

*I used 2/27 because on the rcp poll chart you can't see the numbers for 2/28 since Clinton and McCain overlap.

...if I understand you correctly, this Feb 28 poll is to be thought of as a departure point...and events since then would seem to indicate (though with no actual numbers to verify) that Obama's standing with white voters would have deteriorated to the point that those voters would all (more? most?) vote for McCain in the General Election. Do I have that right? If this is more than just conjecture, it would be significant. I don't mean to sound cynical, but why hasn't this been a really big story?

The question is how many? If the 20-25% figure some polls have found holds he is toast. You can't surrender such a large portion of your base, especially since Obama has nowhere to make it up since he is lousy with Latinos, and win a general election. See hello to Barack Dukakis.

Let's use some common sense. His GE numbers have went down over the past two months. His black support never wavers. So where is his decline coming from? Whites and probably also Latinos, although the movement is too large to be solely from Latinos (Latinos are 7-8% of voters. They can't cause a 3% decline nationally unless they move en masse and I doubt that happened regarding Obama.).

What makes Pew so good is they break things down into a zillion categories. Most polls just give the basics.

Because of the number of Clinton voters who would not vote for Obama?

Any Dem who is to have a shot at the White House needs roughly 90% Dem support. Even Dukakis got 87%.

understand the numbers. Like I said, this is something that needs to be looked at closely...far more significant than Rev. Wright. Thanks again.

:hi:

do you think all the info about Wright in March won over or lost more of them?

Same with calling them Bible thumping gun toting bigots, do you think it might be higher than 25% now?

No? here have another glass of O juice :beer:

since this poll was taken. You are saying the number of white dems refusing to vote for Obama may be more than 25%.....but none of the other conclusions have changed? How does that work?

yes a lot has changed, Obama has gone from losing 20% to 27% of white Dems.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

is what you called them
not him
stop lying
it makes baby jesus cry

im an obama supporter and his teflon is my teflon

sorry it is over your head

The person who gets 2024 delegates is the nominee and we live him or her. As long as there is no fucking nuclear option I support and work for the nominee.

is if some sort of nuclear option is excercised by Senator Clinton...I'm out of here.

If your trying to win friends and influence people...telling them they are delusional or in denail isn't exactly the best way to go. I read a book on that somewhere I can't remember what the title was though...mayb How to win friends and influence people.

started a new job, not much time left for this amusement

Politics would evemtually impode the Party.

we came to that point at the moment a trancendant identity candidate was around

if what you say is correct then we have bitten the bullet and survived.
we have reached a place finally where race and race alone are not factored into the selection of our president.

american history is replete with examples of american men and women rising to the challanges of their times
this nation,if it is blessed by god,is blessed, historically, with always having the right people in the right place at the right time.

of course its just my opinion and i could be wrong

Don't forget the down ticket races.

Get it over it.

just to make you feel like poor bama has a chance?

I would too, if my DLC shill of a candidate was getting beaten by a Junior Senator.

your loss

if the superdelegates choose someone else. Which I hope they do.

Democrats will implode, and we will have President McCain, if either Obama or Clinton secures the nomination.

Or the NAFTA meetings paper trail.

Or the fact that the mother died IN the hospital WITH insurance.

First, Obama is unelectable. Period.

Secondly, if (God help us) Obama becomes the nominee, I cannot imagine a much weaker opponent than McCain.

Could be the golden opportunity the Ted Kennedy crowd has dreamed about. My guess is Obama would lose his ass.

O followers are not the whole party, we all know you think you are, but you aren't

Will you be here if Obama wins the nomination?

That she didn't win this in a stroll, points to her deep flaws as a candidate and campaigner. However, it's impossible to predict what the world will look like in 6 months. And that will really influence who gets elected. If the economy continues to slide, McCain is very unlikely to get elected. If the economy dramatically improves, so do his chances. If there's a terror attack, McCain's odds improve. If Iraq continues to deteriorate, his odds go down. The vagaries of actual events are given too short a shrift here.

you'll recruit SOMEONE one of these days.

she's toast. The sooner you get that, the easier it will be.