The Endgame Cometh: How Hillary will become the Nominee!

I posted something like this a week or so ago and hardly anybody noticed. But with talk of the Clinton camp preparing to go nuclear, I thought I'd roll it out again, because it's perfectly in line with my prediction about her endgame strategy. That strategy has three parts!


Part I. WIN OUT

She's COUNTING on victories in: Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico.

She's MAKING A SERIOUS PLAY FOR either squeaker surprise victories or narrow loss "moral victories" in: NC and Ore.

If she can pull PART I, that entitles her to move to PART II.

PART II SOW DOUBT!

If she wins out, then she uses that fact to raise serious doubts in the uncommitted superdelegates -- and maybe even a few persuadable already committed supers -- about Obama's electability. Her aim is to make Obama limp into the convention having lost or barely won all of the remaining major contests. She'll concede South Dakota and Montana, but that's about it.

If she succeeds in raising enough doubts, she needs to also offer the Supers a legitimate seeming way out.
That leads to PART III of the endgame.

PART III. FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN AS COVER

Obama supporters keep talking about how hard it will be for Clinton to overtake him in pledged delegates. But that misses a crucial point and a crucial element in her endgame strategy. As she sees it, through the remaining primaries, she really only needs to get the delegate count to a point that WITH Florida and MI included, she either overtakes him or reduces his margin to something morally insignificant. By "morally insignificant" I mean something under a hundred, but more likely in the 20-25 range. If Florida and Michigan would either bring her into the pledged delegate lead or bring her within 20-25 delegates, then whatever claim Obama has to "speak for the people" will be essentially eviscerated. In that case difference between them will be smaller than the predictable amount of "noise" introduced into the measurement by the electoral process.

Indeed, if the ONLY rationale that the Obama forces can offer for keeping FL and MI out is that seating them would tilt the nomination (unfairly) to Clinton, that will be a sure sign of collapse of the Obama narrative. It will mean that Obama will have become very damaged goods and that his other arguments for the nomination will have been undermined by Clinton's successful execution of Part I and Part II of the endgame strategy.
If it comes to that, the supers will be LOOKING for a way to dump Obama. If Clinton has undermined his candidacy, there is no way that FL and MI will be excluded. What would be the point? To hand the nomination to a demonstrably unelectable candidate -- out of fairness? Fairness to whom? The party he would take down with him?
On the other hand, if seating Florida and Michigan would indeed tilt the nomination to Clinton, then that gives the party apparatus "cover" for doing just that. It makes the selection of Clinton look not like a brokered, backroom deal sort of thing, but like a bow to the will of the democratic electorate at large. The narrative would be that once the party actually enfranchised the good voters of Florida and Michigan, Clinton emerged as the clear choice.
So to sum up. Clinton is counting on three things: (A) getting the delegate count close enough that with FL and MI she will either outright lead or reduce Obama's lead to moral insignificance; (b) on beating Obama down over the course of the remaining primaries; and, finally, (c) on Florida and Michigan providing cover under which the party apparatus can swing in her favor and against Obama without being charged of giving it to her in an illegitimate backroom deal.
If that all happens, she's the nominee (and it will be a spring and summer of very old-fashioned politics.)

Is it a stretch? Clearly yes. First, it's a strategy with lots of moving parts. If she fails to execute any step, it's hard to see what the back-up plan would be. Second, it's about as brass-knuckled a strategy as one can imagine. Some of the apparatchick may lose nerve and try to dissuade her.
On the other hand, if all goes as planned, I think she really does have a very strong chance of becoming the nominee. A very strong chance indeed. But it's clearly a big if. So call it a high-risk, high yield strategy.

If Clinton sweeps tomorrow -- which I give her a 50% chance of doing -- she will have gone a long way toward executing the strategy!

Nuke the party....yes you see what a popular idea that is around here.

You think we are going to just sit here and allow that to happen?

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And Hillary is Bush-Lite.

I don't really think Nader got 25% of the vote in 2000.

Woot woot!

You do realize if that if she attempts this, whether it works or not, it will be the end of her political craeer.

It'll be the beginning of her presidency! You can't really believe that Florida and MI are going to be relegated to the sidelines, just to placate your sense of "entitlement." This is about winning elections, not about making party activist feel good. Check out this piece by Susan Estrich, who explains the point of having automatic delegates very nicely!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_goal_is_to_win.html">The Goal is to WIn

re-read the post I'm replying to you'll find out...

then you won't mind me saying that if she "wins" in this way, I PROMISE YOU that I will leave the democratic party.

take it to the bank.

LIKE HER.

Half the party thinks she's cheated...of that half decide to bite their lip pinch their nose and vote for her the other half stay at home, write in Obama, or vote McCain.

With 15-30% of your reliable voters gone McCain wins 45-50 states.

Hillary makes Mondale look like a winner and she spends the next 3 years in the Senate with no one to talk to till she loses her senate seat in a primary challenge or decides to retire.

How can you view this as fair or justified? This sort of a 'win' will destroy the party and lead to a McCain presidency. The Dems could lose the black vote for many years to come also-far more reliable than working white voters who often go Repub.

Obama VOLUNTARILY took his name off the ballot. It's not something that was done to him. It's something he did to himself. He was trying to curry favor with IA and NH and South Carolina democrats. He was trying to deprive Hillary of a victory he saw coming. It was a purely tactical decision on his part. Why should a purely tactical decision on his part now be used to justify disenfranchising the voters of Michigan.

Shows you what a manipulative, double dealing little Chicago Pol OBama really is at heart.

New Politics my arse!!

You got a problem with Michigan, take it up with your queen, who seems to change her mind on the issue whenever it suits her.

by taking his name off the ballot? It's the DNC that did that when they held the Michigan state party to the stated rules regarding their early primary. Obama was just complying with the spirit of that rule...as HRC should have done but didn't.

Obama and Edwards both KNEW that if they'd left their names on the ballot, Clinton would STILL win. Indeed, they knew she'd give them a royal whipping. Taking their names off the ballot was a tactic to "delegitimize" an expected Clinton landslide and then to curry favor with the early states.

But there was never going to even BE a Clinton victory in Michigan because as everyone knew in advance, Michigan was going to have all its delegates stripped because the state party violated DNC rules. In hindsight it would have been far better for HRC to have removed her name as well because then she could at least claim something more like a fair contest between her and Obama if neither of their names were on that ballot. As things stand, it's not a valid election on its face. Was it a tactical decision on Obama's part? Could be, maybe not, although you seem to have some sort of insider knowledge on the subject--either that or you're telepathic. But the point is, it doesn't matter why he did it; at *worst*, he was taking advantage of an already doomed situation. The *seemingly* proper thing to do was withdraw from that race, and that's what he did. Too bad she didn't, because it would be better for her right now if she had.

45% of the vote went to the 'other than Hillary Clinton' side in Michigan. If Obama had campaigned in Michigan, he could have won. The point is all candidates agreed that Florida and Michigan would not count because these states broke the rules. As for double dealing, I think this describes Hillary. Say what you will, if Hillary is the candidate, McCain will win. She can not win legitimately and any other sort of win will destroy the party.

In the first case his name was on the ballot. He went along with the strategery of the other boyz who thought that by ganging up on Hillary and collectively removing their names from the ballot they could make Hillary look like a loser -- she beat 'em all!

In the 2nd case, he was offered a revote in MI and refused.

fantasy in life?

It means it will most likely destroy... nuke... the party. But that is okay because it would give Hillary a tiny chance to be Pres, right?

presidency.

The ONLY elitist in this race is Hillary Clinton, who believes that it is more important for her to be the nominee than for the next president to be a Democrat.

The insufferable ARROGANCE of Hillary and her supporters is as bad as, actually worse than, the arrogance of the right-wing Republicans. The Republican condescension is based on their proven ability to divide and defeat Democrats, and, while obnoxious, is based on their proven success.

They are the enemy. Clinton is a Democrat. Her tactics are not those of a clever foe, but the back stabbing by a supposed friend, and that makes it worse. Hillary Clinton is not to be admired, but rather is to be despised.

At the beginning of the nominating process, I was ready to support any of the candidates who won the nomination. Up until recently, I was prepared to hold my nose and vote for Hillary in November. However, in the last few weeks, I have become so disgusted with her lying, flip-flopping, pandering, backstabbing, condescenscion that I am seriously considering not marking my ballot for president. Hillary has shown that she is NO better than McCain.

If Hillary steals the nomination, it will prove that the Democratic party is grossly incompetent for allowing her to get away with it. I will quit the party. I will not spend time or money on a political party that lets itself be bulldozed by such an incompetent fraud as Hillary Clinton.

If she is the nominee, not only will McCain have a greatly improved chance of winning, but she will take down Democrats for other races as well.

Someone recently suggested that Hillary and her campaigners are a Trojan Horse working for the right-wing to disrupt and divide the Democratic Party. More and more, such a notion is looking to be an accurate description of her candidacy.

African-Americans = 90% Democratic; no Democratic canndidate can win a national election without African-American voters. The ARE the Democratic base; the most reliable, loyal, and consistent voting bloc the party has. And Hillary has succeeded in alienating a sizeable enough portion of them that she has no chance in hell of getting elected should she steal the nomination. It won't happen.

What you didn't legitimately earn is not yours!

Michigan and Florida earnings are not counted because they were not legitimately earned. Simple, really! So stealing them to establish your earnings, NO, does not compute.

Michigan and Florida weren't legitimately dropped from the primary cycle --and that Howard "48 States" dean screwed the pooch with that move.

She the DNC chair be a unitary executive? Your logic seems to indicate so.

since it's "Gore won Florida" and you apparently support Obama's gaining the nomination by not counting Florida

I recall them not wanting to follow the rules.

It doesn't mean they were right. On the other hand, the argument for including FL and MI delegates changes the rules set before those races, and does not include some contrived rules after the event.

If you want to make an argument please make it.

in fact there are rules on how to seat them that aren't being followed

and they stripped them per DNC rules that allowed for a minimum of 1/2. The voted to increase it to 100% loss. This was done prior to either contest.

If you have a valid argument, please make it.

then there wouldn't be rules on how to seat them.

they have no delegates.

and then we can discuss them --right now you're just wasting my time.

Take a look at 20.c.5 and 6 for starters.

I keep asking to see the rants these hill followers posted about MI and FLA back when they were striped of delegates.

Obviously her supporters who are so upset, must have been angry back when this happened, right? They must have posted rants about how unfair it was at the time it was happening.

Yet oddly all the rants and poutrage over MI and FLA only showing up AFTER Hillrod started losing?

who was so polite as to respond to you civilly, and in detail.

please knock the table over once for yes or twice for no ...

Looks like we'll have to try the ouija board

Don't give in to the hype!

to Tom Dashle moments ago on MSNBC, he said that isn't something any Undecided SD's would agree to, in fact they are calling him and saying they think this is dead wrong and won't support it. What it is doing is raising the anger of the undecided SD's who will turn against Hillary for such a disastrous move. Hillary is once again all about herself, the party and voters be damned.

gets to decide. If they don't do it, the Credentials committee can. If they don't do it, a minority report can be taken to the floor.

Hillary will not give up on this. And she's got the better argument on her side. The ONLY rationale Obama can cite is that it would disadvantage him and possibly take away the nomination to which he somehow feels "entitled"

But once Hillary wins out and sows doubts, the supers will be looking for cover. Florida and Michigan will provide them with cover.

If Hillary wins out, Obama is sunk.

Sorry. (well, not really)

and no arguemnt for Michigan...you do this and she'll be the nominee of the equivalent of the bull moose party.

DNC RULES: MI & FL 50% - Read it for yourself http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/5/165556/6581/939/509605

that's slightly more likely than my winning the lottery, but it's still vewy unlikely to happen.

...but she can "steal."

Part of me almost hopes that she does - because then she'll lose the election to McCain and that will be the END of her Presidential ambitions.

Then Obama can run again in 2012 with a big bucket of "I told you so's." And no Hillary to get in the way this time.

Hopefully he'll just win the nomination and I can finally sing "Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey hey, Good Bye!" with a big smile on my face and curse Hillary out proper. lol

I'm sorry, but I can't wish for a McCain victory, I just can't. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

just like hilly could have if she hadn't blown it.

So she has long ago conceded it.
Does she plan to concede it all over again?
Would that help her?


As you say in your OP, it's a stretch. You are correct about part.

Have a hard time keeping those peopleless expanses out West straight!

When people are calling for her to drop out after Puerto Rico and you're huffing and puffing about how the good people of Montana MUST! NOT! be denied their chance to vote.

nomination and the state.

All this stuff we are doing is just a formality at this point, though we pretend it's dead serious.

But it's fun. We have a very good shot at being the state who puts Obama over 2024. Our last in the nation status is finally paying off.

Now some S. Dakotans may try to horn in on our glory, but we are on Mountain Daylight time and half of SD is in Central Time. So technically we are last!

from Clinton. If this were a basketball game, Obama would be 15 points ahead with 10 seconds left on the clock. The game isn't over, and Clinton might still score a 3-point basket to make it closer, but when the buzzer sounds, Obama will be victorious.

http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/

Millions of dems that are thinking once again about dropping out of the process altogether or forming a third party, is that what billary has brought this party to?

If candidates like billary keep up the derision, the division, the phony pandering and the usual political tricks we get cycle after cycle and then expect us to fall in line, do you think true dems will continue to participate in the destruction and the division of the dem party because we are conditioned to feel guilt ridden over the appointment of future scalias or alitos hanging over our heads?

Howard Dean has signed on to try to save this party from the likes of charlatans like billary, joe lieberman and zell miller, but he can only do so much. It is now up to us to wrench our party away from the very people that would make us a clone of the repub party.

All you describe is a guarantee that McSameAsBush becomes President -- so why don't you do the honorable thing and rename this string "The Endgame Cometh - How Hillary Wins for McSameAsBush."

Give it UP, Hillbots. She's LOST, and if she STEALS THE NOMINATION -- still and forever the ONLY WAY she even gets the nomination -- she will become THE MOST HATED PERSON IN AMERICA.

Deservedly so, as well.

Get it yet, Hillbots?

for president. Period.

NO ONE I know will vote for her if she does this like Rove would.

NC is in the bag for Obama, at a 5% minimum, and more likely 10%. Oregon and Montana are Obama states, along with the entire Northwest.

The only sweeping will be of her campaign into the dustbin.

showing that Obama has a narrow 5pt lead and barely breaks 50% means the "win-out" part of the endgame strategy is still alive and kicking going into tomorrow.

Amazing. :wow:

As an Obama supporter, I think that Michigan and Florida must be counted. The voters cannot be punished for the antics of their politicians -- not if the Democrats want to have a chance to win in FL and MI in the fall.

It is my expectation that Obama will end the primary season June 3 with a pledged delegate margin of about a hundred votes.

Shortly thereafter, I hope to see the DNC and Obama's campaign will announce they will recommend that the credentials committee seat the Florida and Michigan delegations selected at their state conventions, giving Clinton a 60 net delegate gain. Obama will continue to lead the total pledged delegate count by about 40 votes.

A few hundred superdelegates will announce their committment to vote for Obama at the convention. Obama will be the presumptive nominee, AND Michigan and Florida will have been counted in the total.

If the situations were reversed, and Clinton was ahead by any number of pledged delegates, she would be the nominee. To do anything else would leave her supporters feeling severely alienated and cheated. The Democrats won't do that to either side. Since Obama will almost certainly be in the lead, he will be the nominee.

I hope that the Democrats can then unite around Obama, our nominee, and win in November.

His campaign will be on life support. Hillary will be surging! It won't really be a matter of "mathematics" but of psychology and politics. Obama will be reveal as damaged goods. The supers will be looking for a way to dump him.

Eight Belles.

Because, you might as well launch a missile to be landed on Mars before November, collect samples of life, and bring them back to Earth and show us Obama supporters that Martians are registered to vote for Hillary.

That's the kind of wishful fantastic fantasy you are spinning here.

Get back to Third and Fourth grade addition and subtraction lessons, ok?

You seem to have lost touch with reality about where Star-Trek meets up with carrying the one to the tens column.

this 'hillary vs. obama' stuff has been what they've selling from the start, so why would they stop it now?

I hope these numbers translate into real numbers tomorrow because they s-p-e-l-l...

LANDSLIDE!

Wow.

What a Crock Of SHIT!!

You are delusional!!

I love a little hallucination every once in a while.

Not saying this post is though.

Part 2) ??????
Part 3) Profit

I've yet to see a scenario for Hillary winning the nomination that is better explained than this.

:rofl:

If thats the case hillary pledged that florida and michigan wouldnt count for violating rules that 48 other states followed. She made the choice. She was pandering to the lead off states as well. Is it ok to toss the rules out. she is seeking this same party's nomination. Maybe she should just pull a Lieberman.

One FACT that I know about "the right wing" since I live among them is that: THEY DO NOT EVER FORGIVE.

IF HRC snags the Democratic Nomination, both HRC and BUBBA will be handed "their political asses." She won't even come out of it WHOLE enough to win her next Senate race, much less the Presidency.

Remember all the times that WE defended the Clintons through the 1990s? There's PLENTY MORE MATERIAL that is inflammatory and NOT all of it is contrived.

The Clintons and The Bushes are cut from the same "morally bankrupt" cloth, i.e., spoiled rotten by TOO MUCH power and privilege.

HRC may steal the Nomination BUT she will LOSE the G.E. long before the first vote is cast in November.

Take that TRUISM to the bank. :nuke: