Hello guys and girls!

Time for the post on the second of tomorrows contests.

I give you

North Carolina

According to the http://www.ncdp.org/files/2008_NC_Delegate_Selection_Plan_FINAL_appr_by_SEC.pdf">Selection Plan for North Carolina the pledged delegates are distributed as follows:

1. District-Level Delegates: 77 - distributed over 13 districts of varying size allocations.
   
2. Pledged PLEO Delegates: 12
   
3. At-Large Delegates: 26
   

For a total of 115 pledged delegates at stake in tomorrows primary.

Lets have a look at the districts. I am going to work from the different predictions I have been able to find on the different blogs out there.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/29/131157/114/756/505712">PsiFighter37 at dKos
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/north-carolina-prediction-obama-by.html">fivethirtyeight.coms computermodel
http://electioninspection.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/election-inspections-final-north-carolina-projection/">Elliot at electioninspection - he won the prediction contest on PA at TheField.

Contrary to the Indiana districts there is quite a few districts with an odd number of delegates. That makes it quite a bit more important who gets the popular vote, even if by a little, in a given district.
As you go down over the districts remember to marvel at display after display of gerrymandering at its absolute finest.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

50% AA population combined with low income, old whites. The 58,333% should be guaranteed for a 4-2 split for Obama. As PsiFighter37 points out he did come close to the 75% in neighbouring Virginia districts, so the 5-1 might be in reach - if a bit of a stretch.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

The guys at 538 says this could go 4-2 Obama, even though we are dealing with some poorer areas, since its split evenly among the demographics - and is the one of the youngest and most male district. The two others think he will have problems breaking the 58,333% barrier. I'm keeping at 3-3.



4 Delegates -- Split percentages | 12,500% | 37,500% | 62,500% | 87,500% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 2

Young, middleclass whites and a lot of rural area. Not enough to carry either over 62,5% for a 3-1 split.



9 Delegates -- Split percentages | 5,556% | 16,667% | 27,778% | 38,889% | 50,000% | 61,111% | 72,222% | 83,333% | 94,444%
Prediction: Obama 6 Clinton 3

High income, highly educated, two universities. representative David Price is an Obama endorser. Obama will break the 61,111% to get a 6-3 split. 7-2 is viewed as unlikely, but not altogether impossible.



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

White lower middle class Appalachian district. Clinton land. But not enough to get Obama under 30%, which will get him the 2 delegates.



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

Described as CD#5 with a better education. Clinton win, but not a 70%+.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 3

58,333% to get a 4-2 split seems to be to much for either. Slight favour to Obama though, due to a good base of high education and 21% AA population - could bring him near the 4-2 split.



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 3 Clinton 2

30% AA population and large part urban areas. Obama did fine in neighbouring SC districts. Should be a solid 3-2 for him.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 2

Upper white middle class. Our predictors seems a little split on which way it could go. PF37 says Hillary has the better chance of the 4-2 split. 538 says Obama will make with a few % to spare, and Elliot says he will make the 4-2 no problem. Slight favour for 4-2 makes it our guess. :)



5 Delegates -- Split percentages | 10,000% | 30,000% | 50,000% | 70,000% | 90,000% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 3

Another Appalachia district like CD#5 that will favour Clinton, but probably not bring her past the 70% for a 4-1 split.



6 Delegates -- Split percentages | 8,333% | 25,000% | 41,667% | 58,333% | 75,000% | 91,667% |
Prediction: Obama 2 Clinton 4

Good area for Clinton. But Asheville is apparently a place for the more liberal, Dennish Kucinich voting, democrats which might affect the vote in favour of Obama enough to avoid the 75% for Clinton that would net her a 5-1 split.



7 Delegates -- Split percentages | 7,143% | 21,429% | 35,714% | 50,000% | 64,286% | 78,571% | 92,857% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 3

Look at that picture again. Is a beauty of a district, won't you agree? :)
Urban district with 45% AA population. That along with a high level of education should easily bring Obama over the 64,286% mark for a 5-2 split.



7 Delegates -- Split percentages | 7,143% | 21,429% | 35,714% | 50,000% | 64,286% | 78,571% | 92,857% |
Prediction: Obama 4 Clinton 3

Well educated middle class and 27% AA population will win this for Obama. 64,286% for the 5-2 split is within reach and could happen.


That gives us a total on the district level delegates of:

Obama 42 - Clinton 35

Seems like Obama is closer to expanding that than Hillary is to contracting it. But the totals look relatively solid +/- 2 either way.


Statewide delegates

Realclearpolitics have a average on the polls atm at just under 7% for Obama. Personally I think it will be higher than that, so lets play with 8%.
That gives us:

Pledged Party Leaders and Elected Officials (PLEOs)
12 Delegates
Split percentages from 3 to 11 | 20,833% | 29,167% | 37,500% | 45,833% | 54,167% | 62,500% | 70,833% | 79,167% | 87,500% |

Obama 6 - Clinton 6

A tad more and Obama breaks this 7-5. 8-4 would be a 25 point win. Not likely :)

At-Large Delegates
26 Delegates
Split percentages from 9 to 17 | 32,692% | 36,538% | 40,385% | 44,231% | 48,077% | 51,923% | 55,769% | 59,615% | 63,462% |

Obama 14 - Clinton 12

If Obama goes double digits, a 15-11 split is close.


But all in all out numbers give us a grand total of:

Obama 62 - Clinton 53

A 9 delegate win for Senator Obama. I still have a feeling Obama is underestimated in the above, but there you have it. 5 more than
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5820291">I have in Indiana for Senator Clinton.


Anyways - there you have it. What do YOU think?

:shrug:

to get it to look that good!

:P

Some history for you: http://www.senate.mn/departments/scr/redist/redsum/NCsum.htm

Plus, it's represented by the formidable Mel Watt


http://watt.house.gov/

Nah! Not here! Never...never mind the fact that the district lines drawn by the legislature were taken to court (by someone from Wilmington district, but filed in Smithfield district, over actions in the Wake County district) to get a "friendly" judge to throw them out. He then ordered the lege to redraw them "splitting fewer counties." They did, and he threw them out too. Then he imposed HIS solution which split more counties than the map he had just thrown out. THATS Politics!

12 was supposed to split for the repugs...it hasn't. 13 was supposed to split for the repugs...it hasn't!

:bounce:

with the intention of going to the polls (next door) and helping the Obama people hand out flyers, go on lunch runs if needed, bring water, etc.

I looked out my window and there weren't any cars at ALL over there. I of course thought it was Tuesday, so it'll have to wait 'til tomorrow.

I'll go on runs and bring H20 for the Hillary folks, too, but I'm NOT going hand out flyers! :hi:

just sayin' it took a bit to load.
thanks!
:hi:

Was looking at shrinking the pictures a bit. But its a bit of work and the loss in quality wasn't really made up by a gain in size reduction.

Will keep it in mind. Hope it was worth it though. :)

bandwidth!

:hide:

:thumbsup:

K&R for the hopeful news!

:bounce:

:party: :toast:

I was guesstimating a 54-46 win for Obama, and +11 net delegates. Your +9 is more reasonably arrived at (mine was on a percentage basis).

Once again, I'm saving your work! Big :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: !!!

:hi:

Thanks!

Elliot predicting a 19 point Obama win in NC makes me feel much much better tonight.

These threads are very helpful. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

:kick:

PA not so much after I was swayed a bit to much by the late and very positive PPP poll for Obama. ( I was close in the first version though at 8% and 8 delegates for Clinton)

But generally the honour befalls the people that have done the predictions I base this stuff on - thats why I make sure to include links to their predictions. I am more of a compiler of their work into DU. :)

K&R

Thank you.

You just dropped a gold watch in the Port-O-John.

K&R.

that affects your analysis. (Fayetteville has had huge early voting.) Other places where early voting has been boffo: oraange county, durham county, guilford county, and mecklenberg county. All in all, early voting in NC has been 400K for dems, 40% af-am.

great analysis.

than actual research. My knowledge of much the US demographics is limited, but I have tried to compile what I can find to service the DU users.

So what do you think it means? :)

:kick:

There is honestly more great information here than there is on any of the cable news shows.

You and Chuck Todd should have your own show.


Again, thanks for the insight. I hope your predictions ring true!

I caught Chuck Todd saying something before PA, that I knew was mathematically impossible after spending 5 mins on my spreadsheet for that contest.
(And I am from fraking Denmark and had spent one day getting to know the rules.)

I won't have him tarnish my name. :)

Seriously though, he seems like one of the few that try to put stuff like this into the debate. You know, actual facts and important details. He likes numbers - and seem to treat them with some level of seriousness - so I kinda like him. :)

And I think he will land somewhere between 8 and 10 points up.

and this has been my hunch.

The Triangle may be high income, and highly educated.........but they still talk like John Edwards. The educated white vote in the Deep South was no more likely to vote for Obama than any of the other votes. Basically, among Southern whites, he has some young people, that's it.

I personally think that Obama will underperform in Raleigh because while these people may be wealthy, they are still Southerners, and I would assume that there is some anger in the white community in that area for the frame up they attempted on those boys at Duke. There's a reason that Nifong got his office stripped from him.

They may be educated, but alot of those educated people are Southerners who have come from other parts of the south to take advantage of the economy, cause the Deep South states haven't exactly been known for economic productivity. Whenever someone grows up in the rural South and gets a college degree, they can't just go back home with that degree and get a high paying job, so they move to Southern cities.

Obama has underperformed with educated whites when they are of Southern origin, so I think this whole talk of 70 point margins in Raleigh might be a bit excessive. Because while there are a lot of yankees there, there are also a lot of educated Southerners and they still remain reticient towards him.

:D

Wake County (Raleigh) is full of state gov't officials and tends repub in the nationals. Durham and Chapel Hill are on a different, much more liberal planet.

So, don't forget, Raleigh is only 1/3 of the equation around here.

I have a Ph.D., am a southern white guy, age 40, and support Obama. I'm an Edwards guy, and many of the folks I know from the Obama campaign are Edwards folks, too.

All of the people who live here know that Obama has nothing to do with Mike Nifong, so I'm not sure what your point is on that score. Lots of people have mixed feelings about the lacrosse case. It's not just that those boys were white: they were also from New Jersey. They were yankees who come down here to hire strippers and barf on people's lawns. If they had been good boys, they would never have been in that situation. Believe it or not, a lot's happened here since the Duke Lacrosse case. It's not really at the top of anyone's mind. It's not like it was the Duke BASKETBALL case. If basketball had somehow been involved, it would have been seared into people's brains for 1,000 years. But it was just lacrosse, which we have to bring boys down from New Jersey to play, because we don't play lacrosse.

Also, many of those educated people are not southern. Many have sold their 500 square foot condos in New York and bought 5,000 square foot mansions here with the proceeds. Many of these folks are Democrats.

I have no idea why it is you think North Carolina whites are reticent about Obama. I've been working with many people, white and black, to help Obama. From what I see, white Democrats here like Obama even more than they liked John Kerry. We are talking about Democrats here, many of whom are liberal. Sure, some folks are socially conservative, but that does not mean they are automatically against Obama. I have had more than one voter mention to me that they did not like Clinton because of her "open marriage." They may not particularly like Obama, but don't for a minute think that folks feel like Clinton deserves their vote. Lots of Democrats have strong reservations about her.

NC is not like my native state (I was born in NC, but my family is from SC) of South Carolina. There's a long progressive tradition here. Obama will carry Wake, Orange and Durham. Mecklenburg? Not so optimistic about that one. Those people are educated, have good incomes, and work at banks. Bankers may drink latte, but most of them are not liberal.

This is exactly the stuff I hope for when making these threads. Thanks a lot.

the first thing I thought was, "Is this poster from Alaska?" --as you seem to know so little about NC. Then I looked at your profile and it says "Ala"...so would that be Alaska or Alabama?

What's the meaning of "The Triangle may be high income and highly educated....but they still talk like John Edwards." :wtf: do you mean? People who talk like John Edwards are all conservative (and racist, is that implied as well)?!?

You also say, "Basically among Southern Whites, he has some young people, that's it." I think you'll see
that's not true today, and also in November in NC and VA. If we can get even more election reform in NC, you'll see it's not really as red as you think.

"Obama has underperformed with educated whites when they are of Southern origin" (source?) I know a LOT of educated whites of Southern origin, probably the majority of people I know. They seem to be voting Obama for the most part.

I think your broad brush generalizations are somewhat dated. When was the last time you visited NC or VA?

great post ty

I can assure you of that. Whether we have the numbers to swing the 11th, we'll see, I think we do.

by Bruce Mulkey..

"Make Your Voice Heard!"
"I urge you to vote for Barack Obama for president and for Cecil Bothwell and Holly Jones for Buncombe County Commissioner. You can find additional recommendations for progressive candidates for county and statewide offices by clicking here. You can review a sample ballot by clicking here. Regardless of who you intend to vote for, however, exercise your responsibility as a citizen and make your voice heard.

Voting details

Polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. Vote early and enjoy the rest of the day knowing your vote is “in the bank.” If you must vote later in the day, know that as long as you are in line when the polls close at 7:30 p.m., you have the right to vote.
Vote at your regular polling location (PDF list of locations or find your polling location).
If you are registered as Unaffiliated, you can vote in either the Democratic or the Republican primary.
If you are a first-time voter who registered by mail, make sure to bring a current and valid photo ID (like a driver’s license, student ID, employer ID or government ID), or a document that shows your name and address like a utility bill, bank statement, or paycheck.
If your name is not on the voter list, first make sure you are at the correct polling place. If you are, ask for a provisional ballot.
If you moved within the same county before April 6, 2008, vote at the polling place for your new address.
Thanks for your participation in the electoral process!"

YES WE CAN!

http://www.brucemulkey.com/

:kick:

:thumbsup:

maybe I missed it but what kind of popular vote percentages are we looking at, for the whole state, 54%-46%?

I assume an 8 point win. I think it will be more. But the polls don't quite support that atm. :)
That part is also more of a guesstimate than the districts I think.

I would also predict 62 delegates in NC and 34 delegates in IN, based on the compilation of all polls.

Guess we'll have to see what the actual voters do though ;-)

of North Carolina..I use to live in Asheville..such a beautiful part of the Planet.

I can't wait for this all to be over, it's working my nerves.

I hope you're right on all counts. Excellent work!

:yourock:

hate that I'm off tomorrow. At least if I was working I would not think about it. Then I have to take my son to soccer for 2 hrs beginning at 6 pm. That would keep me busy. Oh well...Just going to try to stay away from the tv.

I'm off tomorrow, too, and I'm going to write some cards..go to the post office, work out..just occupy my time with anything other than DU. I never get on during these Primaries.

Good Luck to Obamaicans

Thats why I am doing this. Have learned a ton of things doing this - and provides me with a lot of interesting local trivia.

It's all going in to planning my next trip to the US. :)

K and R

http://www.citizen-times.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080505/NEWS01/80505116

It seems highly likely this will go to Clinton.

I'm in the 5th, and the 10th is next door, so to speak. NAFTA is remembered around here very strongly, and rightly or wrongly, the Clinton name isn't terribly popular because of it, and other reasons. This area has had a very bad time with outsourcing, particularly to China; our main industry is/was furniture. The 10th also has a something of a college base, with a couple of private colleges and also a couple of large community colleges that pull students from several of the surrounding rural counties; many of those students move into the 10th because it's more of an urban area than their rural hometowns.

Thanks for your predictions...I'll come back later, when the numbers are in, to check on your accuracy! :P

where the fabric mills once were thriving not so very long ago...now the towels and sheets all come from China or South America. A lot of people lost their jobs. Many voted for Bush, hoping things would get better but they got worse. Those voters are up for grabs for sure.

I think you're very close to being right about NC. I'm thinking it goes 10% Obama but that's just based on irrational premonitions...

:thumbsup:

http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/3388/en/reports.html

CD#9 is not quite breaking 4-2 for him though. Close but not there yet.

He is RIGHT on the edge of going 6-1 in the 12th. Less than .1% needed at this point.

Al that remains is to see where the pop vote ends up.

We can probably predict a 7-5 split in the PLEOs (over 54,167% but under 62,5%)

If we assume low double digits we will prob look at a 15-11 split in the At-large.
All in all we could be looking at 13+ delegates for Obama. Minimum 11 at this time.