We all have to admit- Hillary mismanaged her campaign, and Obama is a political genius.

At this point, fellow DUers, we all know the reality of the Democratic race: Barack Obama has won the nomination, Hillary lost it and she will drop in the next few weeks (probably May 20th). It's a reality they both know, and it's a reality we all need to face, accept and embrace. It's time to save our country from John McCain and the Republicans- we can't let GWB have 4 more years through McCain.

Now, I believe we all need to sit down for a moment and contemplate, ponder about and understand what has just happened here. Basically, how did Barack Obama, a young, black, unknown senator with a Muslim/African name managed to defeat one of the most powerful political families in the history of American politics and position himself to become the first black president of the USA? Also, how did Hillary Clinton, one of the most recognized, powerful, respected and capable candidates that this party has ever had managed to lose a nomination she pretty much had in the bag to an unknown candidate who, technically, could have waited to run 8 more years if he wanted to?

Let's consider several factors:

1) Overconfidence- Hillary Clinton knew she was the favorite to win the race. She knew she had the name, the power, the connections, the intelligence, the capacity and pretty much everything a politician needs to succeed, especially against a field of opponents who included several old-school senators (Biden, Dodd, Gravel), longshots (Kucinich, Obama) and known, respected but, let's be honest, somewhat weak, flawed candidates (Edwards, Richardson). She knew she could win it fairly easily. Only that she gave for a fact she was "going to win" about 3 or 4 months before the voting even started. Her staff saw Obama as a phenomenon that was going to fade quickly, and Edwards as damaged goods. They felt they had it so easy that expected the race to be over even before Super Tuesday (although they did have a Super Tuesday plan, just in case). Smaller states that voted after Feb 5th would automatically vote for her, and Florida and Michigan were not going to be a problem. Cash was everywhere, but it was not going to necessary to spend too much- so money could be spent lavishly...

In other words- The Clinton camp acted like a boxing champion who decides not to train too hard for a belt defense against a supposed "bum"- the "bum" was supposed to be KOed fairly quickly. Of course, a terrible mistake in boxing... and in politics. Great champions know they have to make sure they train hard for every opponent- in order to get rid of the "bum" quickly and effectively, and to last the distance with the tough opponent, if necessary (apart of realizing that sometimes apparent "bums" and "longshots" are indeed the toughest opponents... and the real champs...).

2) Message- Hillary Clinton did not realize what kind of election this was, which is kind of puzzling for someone as politically saavy as her, who also is surrounded by political heavyweights (including former champ, Bill Clinton). This was a CHANGE election- it became evident in 2006, when Americans basically grew tired of GWB and his policies, and started to get rid of him by voting for a Democratic congress. The message COULD NOT BE "REMEMBER THE 90s", but Hillary and her team tried to sell just that- "The Clintons brought peace and stability in the 1990s, and they will bring it again".

Hillary needed to understand the historic nature of her candidacy and the historic moment we were living in- SHE NEEDED TO RUN AS AN AGENT OF CHANGE, AS SOMEONE NEW- NOT AS THE FORMER FIRST LADY. She needed to run as an independent woman who was trying to break with the mistakes done by Bush and, yes, her husband- she had to embrace the CHANGE mantra, new ideas, a new vision, and she needed TO RUN AS A LEFTY. As a TRUE LEFTY. As a REFORMER. Washington is the reason why things are going so badly, so it needs to be reformed by a woman who has seen what is wrong with it, and now is asking for a chance to fix it.

I still don't know why Hillary chose to run as a fairly conservative Democrat, appealing to nostalgic democrats, older voters and right leaning independents, appealing to them by standing by her Iraq war vote and sounding as a hawkish politician ready to blow the Middle East up if necessary. AMERICANS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM EVERYTHING GWB AND THE WHOLE WASHINGTONIAN CULTURE REPRESENT, and Hillary did not distance herself enough from those things. She embraced the typical "experienced" and "tested" mantra- the same mantra that helped destroy Rudy Giuliani (apart of his bizarre political tactics, of course) and gave John McCain, to a certain extent, the Republican nomination.


2008 is the year of the grassroots, the young voters, the year of CHANGE, the year of big reform in all senses of American life. Things are changing, and you can sense it. The politician that could embody that, that could tap on the hopes of the people, that could exploit the outsider image as much as possible, the person that could inspire a nation that is right now in the middle of a recession and fighting an endless war in Iraq... the person that could symbolize what this country has achieved and can continue to achieve; that was going to be the Democratic nominee, and will be the next president.

Barack Obama did just that, and that's why he won the nomination and will win the presidency.

My salute to both Hillary and, my candidate, Barack Obama. Great people both of them. Excellent politicians. True champions for America...

It's just that the best of them won in a major upset.

Go Obama Go !!!

not as big an insider as is hillary and mccain.

Oh and she has run a pretty crappy campaign, don't you think those folks she owes money to deserve to be paid?

:kick:

campaign. I, like many others, believed she had the background, politically speaking, advisers with previous expertise, funding, she had everything it would take to win yet, from the very beginning, big mistakes were made, mistakes once made were VERY difficult to overcome.

Wrong message
Wrong assumptions
Overconfidence

followed by

over-compensating
over-reacting

I still, at times, shake my head in disbelief at what has happened.

Edited to correct spelling errors

it has been the most amazing train wreck of a campaign I think I have ever seen and the tallent was certainly there.

It may have been an issue of too many chiefs and not enough indians.I am not sure but the string of blunders has been a crazy thing to watch.

was damaged goods from the get go. Hillary I thought was actually an awesome candidate and then she not only imploded but actually completely alienated me. It was hers to lose from the get go and the way she has gone about it has been an amazing display of dysfunction.

They really weren't expecting Obama to win by as much as he did. I think it took them off their game plan and they weren't prepared. I don't think they anticipated how strongly Obama was going to appeal to Democrats.

in the bag on Super Tuesday, they spent money like there would be no tomorrow and yet tomorrow arrived and so did many tomorrows afterward. They, imo, did not understand the thirst for change, REAL change not pro-forma change aka same message from a different body and they paid the ultimate price for both the over-confidence and the lack of understanding.

As shocking as Iowa must have been to the Hillary camp, they no doubt dismissed it as a fluke. The good news is that she went on to win NH. The bad news is that she won by less than four points: I think that shocked the Hillary camp even more, because it produced two unwanted results: Iowa not being a fluke anymore, and the emboldening of Obama's supporters--"Hey, this 'Yes, I can' stuff really DOES work!"

:headbang:
rocknation

And last night was the equivalent of Appstate beating Michigan.

b*stard. I hate you with the burning intensity of a billion malfunctioning microwaves for being the first person who has thought of ANY way to dampen the joy I have been feeling since last night.

Can't we let that game go? Michigan beat Tebow like he was Dan Quayle in a spelling bee.

I went to Appstate for two years when that game was played and a girl I dated and was still very close to went to Michigan...

The trash talk was epic on my part after that game...surprised she still talks to me.

from my phone contacts, my authorized email list, my life.

Hey, must be pretty cool for you, you beat a team that actually went on to have a pretty decent season and kicked one of the big bad SEC teams in the teeth. In Florida, no less.

Anyway, it was the game that ushered in the new era of Michigan football. There was a Florida State game that did the same about twenty years ago, and that yielded very positive results. I'm feeling pretty good that this will be similar.

short for Phenomenon

Obamenon?

and is now prepped to tear him down. once he's the nominee, wright was just a taste of what he's going to face between now and November. The media will hand mccain the white house.

Are we media creations? You're so condescending.

On what planet? Why did we hear nothing about wingnut Hagee or that whackjob that leads Clinton's prayer group?

whats a tuzla?

--a lie that she repeated THREE TIMES after the YouTube video establishing that it was a lie had more than a million hits. McSame will love making fun of the totally fake military street cred.

and be bringing up bill's sex life, blue dresses, etc...


neither can win

On what planet? Why did we hear nothing about wingnut Hagee or that whackjob that leads Clinton's prayer group?

guns on him.

Now that's some propping up.

I WAS WRONG!!!!!!!!!

WOOHOO!

:woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

but along came Obama who quickly laid down some tracks and blew his train straight through her town. To her shock, people she thought were with her jumped aboard his train! Lucky them, it was a one-way ticket to the Whitehouse. There's still plenty room for more, so jump on board. We've got complimentary Kool-Aid available 24/7! :rofl: ;)

wannabe (and exiled) latte liberals out in North Dakutah and Hither Montidaho to show up, DOZENS at a time -- at some tumbleweed CAUCUS. Not that hard to do when the nightlife highlight for the latte liberals in the wilderness is the twice-monthly open mike at Starbucks.

As your strange new god would put it: "Understand this:" in the General Election? THERE'S NO CAUCUSES!

But we need to stand united to beat the Republicans in November.

a bunch of wall-to-wall latte liberals.

They're bitter, elitist, latte-sucking liberals from the world 'go.'

Quit being an ass

better suited to the times and the needs of the nation now than her gifts are, and your analysis about her overconfidence, which is exactly correct IMO, doomed her chances.

His team planned for the length of the primary calendar. Her team arrogantly assumed they'd have the nom in the bag by midnight Feb. 5th.

They didn't.

and david turned him down because he wanted to stay in illinois..hillary had david make her senate campaign videos. he ran edwards bid for the presidency...

david and barack were two forces that converged at the right time and they are perfecting dean`s 50 state strategy.

except that she and her campaign didn't know how to handle the phenom that is Barack until far too late in the game.

Obama's people were smart enough to capitalize on them.

Hillary hired people to make her president. Obama hired people to either HELP HIM become president, or to make him president while PRETENDING to help him become president. Either way, he's always appeared to be in charge, and more important, to be the go-to guy on accountability.

:headbang:
rocknation

If she had run in 2004 before the war had become so widely despised, she could have run on a platform based on the Iraq War vote, except to her benefit. She could have said she supported the war and voted for it, but that Bush was too incompetent to win the war, rather than Kerry's weak-ass strawman position of voting for it but being against it. But by waiting that extra 4 years, she doomed herself with the Iraq War vote.

She made that vote thinking it would help give her macho credentials in her anticipated run for the White House. In a way, she was right. She just misjudged WHEN to run for office.

their strategy drastically for the GE they are going to badly lose what should have been a gimme election for dems.

as a middleaged gay female, I was very excited about Hillary's run for president. I was going to get to see a woman president in my lifetime! I bought into the "over by Feb. 5th" meme, and looked forward to us having our nominee and the Repugs self-destructing in the search for theirs. When Rudy dropped out so soon, I was amazed that he'd run such a bad campaign, putting all of his hopes into Florida, and being one of the first candidates to drop out. As more and more information is getting out about the Clinton campaign, I'm even more amazed, and for many of the reasons you outline in your excellent OP.

I will happily vote for her should she overcome the tremendous odds and become our nominee, but I am excited and enthusiastic about Barack Obama. I just want to make that clear.

You've got to be kidding.

There is simply no way whatsoever even with the brilliant campaign run by Obama that Hillary should have been beaten.

He should have made a damned decent showing, but been forced to leave the race no later than February.

No, the other side of Obama's success was the fact that the Hillary Campaign was run by a bunch of idiots who simply assumed she would win and did nothing to insure it.

had Hillary Clinton chosen anybody else who understands the rules of the Democratic Primary, she would have been the nominee in February.

They would have shut Obama down in Iowa if they had played retail politics instead of depending solely upon name recognition.