Barak Obama is the second coming

of Michael Dukakis.

Take a look at http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May08.html">this map, which shows McCain vs. Obama. Note that Indiana is going to be won by the Republicans. Note also that there's nothing about the map (beyond Indiana) that's obviously going to flip from McCain to Obama. Note further that McCain can probably flip at least one of those industrial states where Obama is weak.

WE ARE PROBABLY GOING TO LOSE IF OBAMA IS THE NOMINEE.

Then take a look at http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May08.html">this map, which shows Hillary vs. McCain. Note that the map has McCain winning MI and WI against Hillary, which simply isn't going to happen. Fix those, and Hillary beats McCain 318 to 220. Even if the Republicans somehow flip Florida, they still lose. Even if they flip Florida, Iowa, and Missouri, they still lose. Republicans have to run the whole table against Hillary to even keep it close.

And, again, I realize my candidate is probably going to lose. But this just pisses me off. I'm going to be stuck with McCain in 2008 because of craziness with caucus states, because MI and FL were excluded, because Obama won Texas by getting fewer votes, etc. I'm going to be stuck with another Republican administration because of a primary system which I really think is deeply illegitimate. I really, genuinely don't think that my candidate was legitimately beaten, and it doesn't matter because I'm still going to be stuck in the water after you Obama supporters ram this supposedly unsinkable party into an iceberg...

And that just depresses the hell out of me.................

:-(

Doesn't ring a bell.

they face each other. Take the map and put it back in your knapsack. And stop shilling for McCain. Anyone saying Obama can't win is shilling for McCain as far as I'm concerned. Save your spew too if you don't agree. It is only a forum on the internet after all. The country is kicking away the log jam that stands between Obama and the white house. thank god.

Obama is a great candidate. We will win in November.

The Campaign against McCain hasn't even started

Because I don't (beyond NM). It seems much more likely that McCain will flip Penn.

Obama is not going to win Virginia, North Carolina or Indiana unless he wins the popular vote by 10% or more.

No Democratic candidate has won Virginia since LBJ's blowout in 1964. There is not enough growth in Northern Virginia to turn VA Democratic anytime soon. A Blue Dog Democrat is the only type of Democrat that has any remote chance of turning this state blue.

No Democratic candidate has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Kerry lost the state by 12 points despite having the native son on the ballot. Democrats already get 90% of the significant black population in the state. To win the state, you need to tap into the rural parts of the state that are typically controlled by the Republicans. Neither Democratic candidate will do that.

Indiana? Are you joking? Tell me why a state that hasn't went Democratic for decades will go Democratic? How will a state that went for Bush by 20 points go Democratic?

There is no chance in hell of Obama winning South Carolina and Texas. They are solid Democratic states, and have been for a while. The big black populations in these states already vote overwhelming Democratic. To win Texas, you need to tap into the large white population in the state that is almost entirely controlled by the Republicans. In addition, you need to get Latinos out to vote and get them to overwhelming vote Democratic. Not likely considering Obama's lack of success with Latinos and McCain's great support with Latinos.

Please tell why you think Obama has a chance in any of these states. Really. I'd like to know. You just threw names against the wall.

I'm going to be honest... you don't know what the fuck you are talking about. Is this your first election? Do you have any idea about state trends?

...

which, btw is tough to find out there....

It will happen because we say so.

Gee, what infallible logic!!!!!!!

WE'RE F'IN DOOMED WITH YOU CADRE OF NEOPHYTES. AFTER YOU CRASH AND BURN, I WANT MY PARTY BACK FROM MODERATE PUKES. IT IS TIME FOR THE ADULTS AND THE LEFT-WING AGAIN.

Then winning the state at the presidential level for a Democrat.

Not to mention the fact Jim Webb is a Blue Dog.

Obama is not a Blue Dog. He's a liberal Democrat. He is not going to win the state regardless of whether Webb is on the ticket or not.

are the people of this country going to vote for a 100 year war...you can play all you want with your maps, but the truth is mc cain has lots of baggage..he has got a terrible temper and no one want to see his finger on the button...

You give Grandpa too much credit. He's benefiting now from the Dems fighting.

Get out and read a bit before you concoct this stuff. Rendell is governor in case you don't know. Of Penn.

Maybe you should be looking at her instead of 3 million other piss poor excuses.

Also, its polls in May. They are as meaningless as, say, a poll in 2007 showing Hillary winning in a landslide.

THIS map PROVES Obama will lose!

and THIS map PROVES Hillary will win! As long as you change the information on the map! So obviously, Hillary wins!

Maybe we should take a look at your logic...

Kerry only won it by 11,000 votes. It's not a given for either candidate. I think Obama will run a little stronger against McCain there because he's from Illinois and most polls have shown him running a little stronger there. Same-day registration helped him a lot in the primary, enabling students to register on election day, and that will help him in the fall as well. I think same-day registration is one of the main reasons why he overperformed the polls by such a large margin in the primary.

we can win. And this: I really, genuinely don't think that my candidate was legitimately beaten Gimme a break. You think he stole it? Please... He ran a better machine than she did.
She compared herself to Rocky. Well if she's Rocky it's the Rocky who got his ass handed to him by Clubber Lang because he thought he would be a push over. Obama was hungry. Hillary thought she had it locked, and because of that didn't work as hard or as smart as Obama. Now she's paying the price.

A seat the GOP had for 34 years?

Did you know a Dem took Hastert's seat?

This year the GOP will be CRUSHED.

There is no way in fucking hell McCain can win.

Obama will win Virginia, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, PA, Ohio, Missouri.

Texas and Georgia will be close.

Dukakis was trying to defeat Bush who was the VP of a POPULAR President.

Bush is the worst President in history and McCain is running on his policies.

Howard Dean's 50 state plan has been building Democratic infrastructure in red states that never existed before.

We have had no Obama/McCain debates, we don't know who the VP will be and at least 1/3 of the Democrats are pissed at Obama or Hillary right now to the point of staying home.

How on earth can you ignore all of this?

That's Delusional with a capital "D"

Virginia would require over a 9 point swing from 2004 -North Carolina would be over 11 points!

Not gonna happen.

Governor Kaine

Do you understand what is happening in this country? Do you? Did you read my post?

I am delusional when Virginia elected a Dem to the Senate 2 years ago and they are likely to elected another Dem to the Senate this year and the GOP continues to offer NOTHING to the American people????

Why am I delusional and you are not?

and likely inexperienced. Electing state and local Dems is a very different deal than looking at swings in presidential elections (which is what we're counting here).

Absent an meltdown by McCain, the Dems will not overcome a 9 point swing. That's just the reality of the situation.

You seem to forget that his grassroots organization is by the far the best we've seen in a long time. Hes in essentially a statistical tie in Florida, which is a state he hasn't even campaigned in yet. How many states was Hillary projected to win large, if not by double digits, and he closed the gap to win it in a relatively short amount of time?

and I said as much last summer and throughout the fall.

Primary elections (ESPECIALLY this year, with the African American influence) have a completely different dynamic to what will happen in the GE.

If you can honestly sit here and tell me that you expect the poll numbers as of now (most of which are favorable to both candidates) will hold steady or shift in McCains favor, then I'd say you are completely wrong.

How many African Americans vote in Republican primaries?

Very few

What's the influence of that Demographic in a general election in southern state Obama won?

Far less.

Have been pulled down in the polls by the infighting. Once thats over, the two candidates will be standing on somewhat equal ground. Then the race comes down to two things, fundraising and turnout.

and you won't be able to post this any more.

McCain will get the White House.

While America wasn't watching, the M$M cooked up this "Let's Make History!!!!" show and ran it 24/7.

And now we will make history. It just won't be the story we wanted to write.

John and Cindy will probably paint the White House Republican Red.

one candidate who won't win, and one who will. Fortunately, the one who will has just about clinched the nomination.

McBush will crash and burn. Obama should debate him every week just to make sure we get 90% of the vote!

Any of the other candidates would have been a MUCH worse choice... because they lost.

Why don't you do some background research on how Obama won in Chicago and get back to us

(New voters so far 3.5 million)

If Hillary was as electable as you would like us to believe, she would have wrapped it up, as she expected, on Super Tuesday. Why couldn't Hillary close the deal? Why isn't she rolling in money from a million and a half small donors like what's-his-name? And say zero about Michigan and Florida because she signed the original document that made their votes invalid. She only cared about them when it was apparent she needed them.

is going to beat McCain.

Now get used to it, get over it, and get into beating McCain.

I think Obama can win but I am under no illusion that it will be easy. We need all hands on deck if we are going to have a shot. So instead of moping about McCain winning as if it's a foregone conclusion, come out this Saturday and help register new voters near where you live, or in a swing state if you live in a state that isn't competitive. This will benefit down-ballot Democrats as well as the presidential nominee. The more new Democratic voters we can register between now and November the better chance we'll have. So stop moping and help with our 50 state effort! Trust me, you'll feel a lot better if you do. I wanted to sit around and mope after PA when I thought it might be over for Obama, but I picked myself up and went to Raleigh to help the campaign, and it made me feel a lot better.

I'll take a "probable" loss over a certain loss, though I don't agree with your assessment of Obama's chances.

Now THAT depresses the hell out of you.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5878759&mesg_id=5879666

And here's the link that the post refers to, in the event you want to cut to the chase:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/5/122655/5037/101/509418

Why does everybody put their fingers in their ears and ignore this? There are months of campaigning, conventions, debates, and all sorts of other things that will drastically change the electoral map.

One way or the other.

The same states with low differentials will determine the outcome this time as with elections past.

With that in mind, the thread is useful, because it pretty well shows who has credibility here- and who's been drinking kool-aid.

If you don't think things can change, give Mike Dukakis a call and ask him what happened to his 17 point lead in the polls. Or call Jimmy Carter and ask him about losing most of a 30 point margin in the polls to Jerry Ford but managing to hold on because Ford put his foot in his mouth in the second debate, held just a month before the election.

Or, maybe call Hillary Clinton and ask her how you can go from the presumptive nominee with a commanding lead in the polls in the fall of 2007 to losing most of the primaries and the nomination just few months later.

The only thing you know for certain about the outcome of the election in November is that you don't know anything for certain about the outcome of the election in November.

from 2004.

Absent (as you noted) a complete meltdown by one or the other side.

The electorate is too polarized- and Republicans are too well reinforced by the corporate media.

Banking on 9% swings in, say Virginia is wishful thinking at its finest. 2008 will be won or lost in pretty well the same key states as we've seen in the last two elections.

And at present, that doesn't bode too well.

In 2004 you had an incumbent running.
You had a country that had not yet realized how big a mistake the war was.
You had a country that largely viewed the economy as okay, if not great.
You had a country that hadn't yet learned of the depths of republican ineptitude, incompetence and corruption, as epitomized by the handling of Hurricane Katrina, of the Abramoff and Cunningham scandals.

Two years later, things had changed so dramatically that the Democrats recaptured the Senate and House.

We enter 2008 in a situation where the republican party is not unified, where they have to decide how to run against the last 8 years of a republican control of the white house, with a candidate that is viewed with great unease by major elements of the republican base. You have even greater concern about the economy, a war that ebbs and flows, but appears nowhere near resolution. You have a Democratic electorate that has been energized -- that has seen an influx of millions of new voters.

Does it mean that its in the bag for Obama? No. NOr would it be in the bag for Clinton. Much can happen. BUt much HAS happened and comparing this election to 2004 could be as mistaken as comparing the election of 1976 to the election of 1980. (And no, I'm not suggesting a Reagan-esque landslide is likely or even possible for the Democrats -- just that big shifts can and do occur, even in a four year period).

Many Southerners were still Democrats- and Westerners often voted Republican.

Different sorts of Dems and Republicans in those days.

In addition, the brazen far right dominance of the corporate media hadn't yet occurred.

Then, there's the deal with electronic voting machines in key districts...

Now, you make some interesting and salient points as well- and I think in large part we agree that a LOT can and likely will happen in the next 5 months. Even so, the major electoral voting blocks of Red vs blue states will remain- and the election will in all probability be rest on about 7-8 key states.

But as you well know, Bill Clinton was behind Ross Perot and Poppy this time in 1992. The electoral map changed enough that he was able to win by a comfortable margin in many states, some of which hadn't been carried by a Democrat since 1964.

People don't make up their minds in May, they make up their minds in September and October. The polls at this point are pretty much meaningless except to tell us very obvious things like what solid red states will be and solid blue states will be.

So, it seems closer to Gore and Kerry than Dukakis at this point, and it is during a divisive battle for the nomination. This map is just fine.

In fact, the only state that Obama does not win that Hillary wins is Florida, and it is in the margin of error. In addition, Obama puts Indiana in play, according to this map.

And, of course, we are still 6 months away from the GE, which means these numbers are meaningless.

And that's just not going to happen. Click on the state, and you'll see it's just one strange poll...

and thats not what I saw, you have either changed those numbers.

I DO expect him to win. He will hang on to the traditionally blue states, and there are several states Bush won in '04 that should go blue this time around, CO and IA in particular. If you look more closely at the state-by-state data, you'll see that McCain has but a single-digit lead in OH, ,SC, NC, TX, NM, NV, NE, MN, MO, FL, IN, AZ (!) and AK. Given Obama's demonstrated ability to close leads, his superior resources and fundraising ability, and the simple fact that he hasn't yet BEGUN to take his real shots at McCain, all leave me feeling warm & fuzzy about Obama's chances in the GE.
Add to that that Obama's already beaten the most formidable candidate out there (Clinton - let's face it, McCain isn't in her league), and I see Obama winning handily.

Poll Shows Dukakis Leads Bush; Many Reagan Backers Shift Sides

By E. J. DIONNE JR.
Published: May 17, 1988

LEAD: Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the Presidential election in November, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr. Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters.

In the latest poll, Governor Dukakis of Massachusetts led in all regions, but he ran especially well in the Northeast and Middle West. The poll found Mr. Dukakis with very substantial advantages over Mr. Bush among women, union members, Roman Catholics and blacks. Shift Since 1984 Election.

Strikingly, 28 percent of those who said they voted for President Reagan in 1984 said they preferred Mr. Dukakis over Mr. Bush this time; only 9 percent of those who said they backed Walter F. Mondale in 1984 switched to Mr. Bush. Mr. Dukakis was also far ahead among those who said they did not vote in 1984, and he scored well even in groups where President Reagan continues to be popular - notably among voters under 30 years old.

Polls taken six months before ELection Day cannot be taken as predictive of the ultimate election outcome. Robert Teeter, Mr. Bush's poll taker, said that polls taken now may be overestimating Mr. Dukakis, since voters know little about him except the largely favorable news that he has won a a string of primaries since March. In the latest survey, Mr. Dukakis led his only remaining opponent, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, by a margin of better than 3 to 1 among Democratic primary voters.

In theory, a poll taken among as many people as were involved in this one should accurately reflect public opinion within three percentage points in either direction.

The survey did contain some hopeful signs for Mr. Bush and the Republicans.

Many voters, for example, worried that Mr. Dukakis may lack the exprience to be President, and the electorate as a whole sees Republicans as safer than the Democrats on foreign policy and defense.

In addition, half of the country's registered voters said they did not yet have an opinion of Mr. Dukakis, giving Republicans an opportunity to stir public doubt about his capacity to handle the Presidency.

More: http://209.85.173.104/search?q=cache:sWZblm36RYUJ:query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html%3Fres%3D940DEEDD1F3EF934A25756C0A96E948260+dukakis+polls+1988&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us

then someone pointed out it wasn't a thing, but a person...

too bad...i think i know someone who knows a cure for the disease i was confusing with the person...

flame on, austinitis, flame on...start a second thread, soon please...

but I think these maps are very accurate for my state. McCain is quite unpopular here, having come in dead last in the Republican caucus, but Hillary is even more so. Although the map shows McCain slightly ahead of Obama, I could easily see it going the other way. Not a chance if Hillary is the nominee, however. I realize we only have three itty-bitty electoral votes, but it could make a difference.

of the ticket or the vp all these folks that are insulting you will come back in here and tell us all once again that the next election we need a fighter......well, maybe we will come 2012 and hrc decides to run again....but without her the dems will lose.....and remember where you heard it first. if mccain on november 4th is declared the winner in Pa. turn out the lights the partys over.

smashed into tiny bits before your very eyes ... You're angry, and bitter, that Hill's campaign is going down in flames. So you post this crap. What a sad, sad little man you are.

:rofl:

You depress the hell out of me. I'm sick of this crap.

Lead, follow, or get out of the way. But quit whining.

The republican party has been praying for a hillary candidacy for years. If we lose in November it will be because of those hillary supporters who stay home, vote 3rd party, vote for McCain or actively work to defeat Obama. Do you have any idea how fucking ridiculous it makes you look when you say that your candidate , who was easily defeated by Obama is the stronger candidate? It makes you look loony tunes.

... for me to give a rat's ass.

So, it's all good.

Obama makes up 5 points in a poll within a week or two of campaigning.

So our odds are much better with Obama.

McCain is going to get his tired ass kicked. Watch and learn.

A lot of folks outside the fan club choose to analyze things objectively and realistically- yet too often, our posts are met with this:

Keep in mind that, unlike you, I happen to think that both HRC and Obama are able to defeat McCain. And also keep in mind, that unlike you, I recognize that the number of factors that can and will influence the outcome of this campaign that are unknown and unknowable at this point are legion. But the fact is that Dukakis was 17 points ahead of Reagan early in the campaign and managed to lose overwhelmingly. So things can and do change.

But you posted a thread for rational adults.

The Obamites are neither. :)

If you have problems with the primary system, take it up with the DNC. If you can't support Obama and work your heart out for him, then I don't know what to tell you.

Every time I doubt Mr. Obama, he comes back stronger than ever before. There are a THOUSAND reasons not to vote for John McCain and a THOUSAND reasons why people want to vote Barack.

We have a lot of work to do, for sure. But we have a new, young, enthusiastic volunteer base we never had before. With his campaign so readily able to focus that energy, the Republicans are scared.

We can sit here doubting or we can get to work. I choose to make this happen.

Barely a victory. That's how tough Virginia is.

If Democrats had been really intent on winning the White House, they would have run Webb. He would wipe the floor with any Repub candidate. And as a former Republican, he would have drawn moderate Repubs like flies to honey. Webb felt he had to serve his term, though, so there you have it and there we are.