New West Virginia Poll - Clinton - 63 / Obama - 23. Clinton +40

http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200805050638



Wow.

Go Hillary!

That said, she will win there.

She is going to win West Virginia, the most important primary ever held in the history of the United States.

We must give her the nomination now.

:rofl:

But the whole gas tax issue and then Obama's stunning performance on Tuesday got me back in the fold. I'm so proud of him and sorry that I ever doubted him. And I never really stopped suppporting him in my heart so I don't feel all that bad about wandering off the reservation for a while.

for my volvo's mocha latte holder.

:WTF:

They will cite this poll and claim she lost.

To surpass Obama in pledged delegates.

Most Obama supporters don't because of their immaturity. Hillary is showing she appeals to the base of the Democratic party and Obama doesn't. It is nothing to do with delegates. The delegates in Denver will have make a decision whether they want a general election winner or not.

She has a mammoth lead of historical proportions. In the coming years there will be poets commissioned to write of the great historical victory that Clinton had in Indiana. Operas will be commissioned to elevate the populace with images of the mastadonic herculean feat. Armed only with an Indiana Senator and the vestigages carried by her husband who once occupied the most powerful office in the world she single handedly reminded the people of Indiana how she is the inheritor of the role of defender of 'our people' and 'people like us' while her husband spoke passionately about the divisions in America between ordinary people and the 'elitists'.

So formidable is her lead that she is now expected to take Indiana by 30-40 points, an epic win is secured of Brobdingnagian proportions. It is expected that her pythonic win will literally eat virtually all of the delegates and the she will walk away with a delegate lead of at least 40 delegates.

Should Obama somehow manage to comeback and land within 45 points of Clinton it would have to be considered a miracle.


Please remove Indiana and put in Kentucky or W Virginia or whereever we are talking abuot.

:headbang:


:rofl:

We have to help you until you can help yourself...

:rofl: :rofl:

wouldnt look good for Obama at all...

it is West Virginia after all.


That said, the gap will close some even if he doesn't visit the state.

It's not embarrassing, it's not a race, it's over.

The SDs are going to put their feet down, now, and we need to get after McCain and his enablers.

Unless you think Hannity and Limbaugh are what America is all about.

She will win WV and KY big, and it won't do shit to her mammoth pledged delegate deficit.

There's a reason people make "Deliverance" jokes about West Virginians.

I was going to go to West Virginia, but I also want to help with the Obama campaign's voter registration kickoff Saturday, and as this poll demonstrates, West Virginia is a lost cause. Obama supporters, what do you think? Is it worth going there or should I stay home and help with voter registration?

He wont win, but its a lot closer than that spread.

because it will prevent Hillary from hitting her "magic number" of 86% of the vote, and he'll need fewer superdelegates. PLEASE CHOOSE WEST VIRGINIA!!!

:headbang:
rocknatio

You will only hurt yourself by clinging to false hope.

Try real hope this time.

He's already won it.

Write that state off.

It still won't a goddamn difference.

:boring:

:party:

Cause we are voting Obama

nvm

:hi:

:toast:

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And we're supposed to be making nice to you?

:dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce: :dunce:

Please Phonebank!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

no doubt she'll win big there but not 40

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She needs 86% of the vote--in WV and in ALL FIVE of the remaining contests--to get past Obama!

:headbang:
rocknation

They won't help her beat Obama.

The End.

:headbang:
rocknation

by the night of the election it will have become '...a hard-fought battle to overcome the massive out-spending done by her opponent who for months has been saying that W.Va. was all sewn up for him...and this victory proves not only is her opponent unelectable, but that the momentum of the entire primary contest has firmly swayed in her direction.'

...or some such shit....

I moved the bar real low so as to avoid disappointment.

ahh, for the rosy days before 02.05.08...

Go Hill! :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

A "presumptive nominee" doesn't lose a state by 40 points.

Individual states don't decide the election on their own. Clinton killed in Arkansas also.

Kind-of expected.

Especially with "the machine."

If you had 9 people at every site and in 75% of the sites, 5 out of 9 were for Obama, does that mean that 75% of caucus-goers wanted Obama?

And it had CLOSED caucuses, unlike WV, which can be infiltrated by Non-Democrats.

Apples & Bricks.

:thumbsup:

Both states won by every Democratic president since long before Hillary started talking about these kinds of metrics.

A defeat like that would say more about West Virginia than the state of the race, and the state itself isn't a big-state game-changer. Nice try though.

.. but huge losses in Idaho, Utah, South Carolina, North Carolina, et al not be embarrassing for Clinton?

This is getting just completely ridiculous.

And Idaho, Utah, SC & NC are probably not going to be in our column this time even if Obama is the nominee.

It would take a 56-44% win over McCain to even start shifting those states blue.

I don't know how else to put it to you that primary results are about the worst indicator of how one would do in a general election.

Trustworthy, approval ratings, et al would be much better indicators and I don't like them either.

The best indicator? Won more delegates. Won more states. Won more votes.

Game Over.

Kerry won 43 States and 75.9% of the delegates.

Gore won EVERY state (even NJ) and 90.6% of the delegates.

Bill Clinton won only 52% of the popular vote in the primaries....

Why is this so impossible for you to understand? 2008 is the most unique election and circumstances of our lifetimes. Hillary's old arguments for staying in are growing ever more cynical.

Shocking

:eyes:

History makes Obama's case for him! More States, Delegates, etc.

No. Not by a long shot.

And believe it (or not) the convention used to be where the nominee was selected. Not coronated.

I can stick to an argument, and I'm right to begin with. But you've proven for months that you're just too circular and embedded. It's pointless.

Not sure what "cornoneted" means, but, coulda fooled me.

So more delegates & more states won equals much better general election results? Or not?

Cutesy metric!!! Please apply the Dukakis Model to your standard. The results will be fascinating.

All I know is, if she had the majority of support from Democrats nationwide, than she should be the nominee. That's how we decide. She does not have the majority of support, and she can not recover or in the last minute "make up" that support. If she lost us, I don't see how she holds onto you and gains us in the general. Why does this make sense to you?

I am sure that she is done. She is going to go out with fireworks.

But as far as you GE electibility argument, it just doesn't hold water. At all.

Losing the Democratic nomination does not make one more electable among Democrats.

Going out with fireworks is what I expected George W. Bush to do, though. If she beats him to the punch, well, it is what it is, eh?

Honestly though, She would still win the state if she had quit in March.

If it takes that kind of victory to make her supporters happy, then great. Says quite a bit, but, you know, great.

I guess it's too much to ask for her to stop stoking this shit though, huh?

I know you do. But it isn't going to happen.

I'd like to see Hillary realize what has happened. I'd like to see her and Bill and Chelsea standing together with Barack and Michelle and Sascha and Melia. I think that would be the right thing, I think that would be the best thing.

I know you don't want that, and I also know that you're more likely to get your wish than I am mine.

See? I can play your cynic's game, too.

Wanting to end on a high note?

Wow, just so damn cynical!




And I would not be bothered at all by them all standing on the stage together. In Denver.

Will you feel you've won, if we only get unity when the Clintons say we do? Will that be somehow satisfying to you, if the Clintons get to call the shots, if they get to decide when it's "over" long after the rest of us have moved on and taken this fight to McCain, while the rest of you shout from the sidelines? It's an election, and she and her side lost. It happens in politics every day. Someone has to lose!! Be bigger than all that. Sign on to defeat McCain behind the nominee, or get out of the way. We've been more than patient about this.

I've held off long enough, but this just sounds more and more like the exact kind of stubbornness we've been laboring against for eight years. This kind of poison needs to be purged, and this kind of argument just isn't important anymore. A few weeks ago, it mattered. Now, it just doesn't.

Feel free to respond, please labor forward with your kind. But I'm finished talking about this with you, foolish taunts be damned.

FL has cost us the election twice.

Telling them they don't matter now - November suicide, politically.

But do go on with your scenario.

Entertainment.

It begins and ends with the West Virginia vote - no other state matters! GIVE ME A BREAK.

A huge win will be a nice way to go out.

Or how much of a victory it actually is.

Nah it'll be 25-30.

And it will be a nice night for her supporters.

Don't complain about it being 'just one poll' after starting an OP about what a great lead she holds.

But it sure would be nice!

or it won't help her overtake Obama. And by the way, that also applies to all five of the remaining contests.

:headbang:
rocknation

This is West Virginia not the carnival.

you'll kill it in W.Va....

But your idea is better. :-)

Fuck. Maybe I should run for office. TheDonkey, are you available for hire as a Campaign Manager, or is your dance card full? :-)

It won't change who gets the nomination and will only have a negative impact on the nominee, the GE, and the Democrats' chances in the Fall.

The WV and KY primary have no upside for Clinton (as it won't change the nomination calculus at all) and only downside for the Democratic party. Not something to be celebrating.

I'm not going to grudge her a victory there or in Kentucky, and I know she needs to retire that campaign debt. I just don't want to see it used as an excuse to undermine and diminish Obama's achievment over the last several months.

in the Fall.

I heard John King of CNN say that Clinton was favored in WV because it was an almost entirely white state. I wanted to to throw my book at the television when I heard that. I was thinking what about Maine, Utah, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, Washington, Wyoming, Oregon etc? It's as if those states never existed, they've so bought into this "the whites vote for Clinton, the blacks for Obama" idea...which the more it's repeated, the more of a self-fulfilling prophecy it becomes.

I don't think Clinton supporters appreciate the damage that is being done right now and the damage their candidate has done.

It just shows the base of the Democratic party, the working class, has never wanted Obama and still doesn't even though he is the presumed nominee. Hillary has won most of the contests since the end of February. There is buyers remorse in the Democratic party.

And the "snooty" States.



J/K







:hide:

4½-4½ if you split Texas.

05/06/08 Ind. Primary Clinton 51% 38
05/06/08 N.C. Primary Obama 56% 64
04/22/08 Pa. Primary Clinton 55% 85
03/11/08 Miss. Primary Obama 61% 19
03/08/08 Wyo. Caucus Obama 61% 7
03/04/08 Ohio Primary Clinton 54% 74
03/04/08 R.I. Primary Clinton 58% 13
03/04/08 Texas Primary Clinton 51% 92
03/04/08 Vt. Primary Obama 59% 9


Eta: Guam! So 5-5 or 5½-4½!

considering the people voting in Feb and before and the people voting after ARE DIFFERENT PEOPLE!

How much is anybody's guess, with a 6% MOE, but whoever thinks she will not have a substantial victory in double digits in WV is a fool. If she does only win in single digits or low double digits, it will be a counterperformance.

now instead of waiting. The same reason Obama took his name off the ballet in WI...afraid he's lose. He's chicken...just like George...in spite of his big lead.

Whoo-hoo, I am so happy we have such a strong candidate.

yay.

about him.

kitchen sink strategy.

Hypocrisy, thy name is Hillary supporter.

She will also win KY, a state that we obviously should win in Nov if she is the nominee :sarcasm:

and he will win OR, MT, and SD, two out of which we may have a chance in November, and Puerto Rico is up to grab.

So, I am sure you are happy for Hillary, but this is all.

It will just be nice to have a huge win.

Plus it will connect a Pacific to Atlantic trail of States that went Hillary.

She does need to go. Go away!

Let her have a big win and I am sure she will drop out and start campaigning for Obama. (If he is the nominee)

She should stop because she's $20 million dollars in-the-hole-broke and can't catch up.

That is like 3 weeks and 2 days away.

And I love the 7 different figures I have heard today regarding the "math."

WV & KY loved Bill Clinton.

They even voted for him.

Pity he's not running for President then. Would they love Hillary Rodham as much?

Oh the West Virginia hills
How majestic and how grand
With their summits bathed in glory
Like our Prince Immanuel's Land
Is it any wonder then
That my heart with rapture thrills,
As I stand once more with loved ones
On those West Virginia hills?

Oh, the hills, beautiful hills
How I love those West Virginia hills
If o'er sea o'er land I roam
Still I'll think of happy home
And my friends among the West Virginia hills.

:hi:

They like the N word a LOT!

That closes her 150+ gap by a whopping 12 net delegates.

Now, he's only 138 ahead of her. Break out the champaign! Woo Hooo!!!!

By then, he'll have made up half or more of that 12 in super delegates, anyway.


Go Hillary. Go home.

The democratic "nominee" is going to loose big time in a solid democratic state (up until the last two elections, could definitely be brought back into the fold this year)

WV = UNDER BUS

Please make a note of it.

And West Virginia is a "solid democratic state" like New Jersey is a "solid Republican state."

WV '88: Dukakis (52.20 - 47.46) = + 12.46% Democratic
WV '92: Clinton (48.41 - 35.39) = + 7.46% Democratic
WV '96: Clinton (51.50 - 36.76) = + 6.21% Democratic
WV '00: Bush (51.92 - 45.59) = + 6.84% Republican
WV '04: Bush (56.06 - 43.20) = + 10.40% Republican

NJ '88: Bush (56.24 - 42.60) = + 5.92% Republican
NJ '92: Clinton (42.95 - 40.58) = + 3.19% Republican
NJ '96: Clinton (53.72 - 35.86) = + 9.33% Democratic
NJ '00: Gore (56.13 - 40.29) = + 15.33% Democratic
NJ '04: Kerry (52.92 - 46.24) = + 9.14% Democratic

I can't wait to hear about Clinton's "surprise, come from behind" victory amongst the only people who matter (whites) in a "swing" state that Democrats "must win" and she is the only one who can win it.

I could be an awesome Clinton campaign manager.

The Democratic Governor, the 2 out of 3 Democratic House Members, the Democratic WV House of Delegates and the Democratic WV Senate.

the two Republican senators in Maine and New Hampshire, and the various Republican politicians in states that will never vote for a Republican president. We can play this game all night. The only way WV will be won by a Dem president is in a LBJ like landslide. The fact that Obama will be the nominee won't make one difference in WV, and Hillary's landslide primary victory in WV means nothing except she will get to roll out the "tide is turning!" fantasy for a few days. Of the states that Kerry lost, there are about 10 that will be easier for us to win in 08 than WV.

WV has voted Democrat in many elections that were Republican landslides. Clinton 2x, Dukakis (yea that was an LBJ style landslide lol), Carter in 80 (WV was one of 6 states to vote Democrat), also '76, '68, '64, and '60. Maine did not vote Democrat between 76 and 88. Clinton brought it back into the fold. NH did not vote Democrat in 2000 and from '68 to '88. Kerry only won by 9,000 votes.

So let's re-cap. Since 1960, WV voted Democrat 8 times (out of 12 elections), Maine voted Democrat 6 times, and NH voted Democrat 4 times. Now which one is more solidly Democrat?

Let's do a little thinking before we make such sweeping declarations such as "states that will never vote for a Republican president."

Valuable information, short & sweet.

Thanks!

What do you think about the PVIs in WV and NH? You analysis is as intelligent as saying "Dems won the south for 100 years, the south is Dem." Trends change. And let me know your insight into those PVIs please.

Remember?

Please look at them.

What I don't know is what that has to do with this coversation.

WV was an untapped resource in 00 & 04.

in the fall.

+AR +WV +OH + NH

Way more than enough.

It's all decided.

... which actually has more delegates than Oregon. Go figger.

:dem:

Obama is still the nominee of the democratic party!!:toast::applause:

I guess there are not enough...

young,

successful,

high IQ,

college educated,

non-bigoted,

worldy,

intelligent,

people with all of their teeth in the state for Obama to win!

Exit polls tell the story. The older, less educated, less successful, more racist and dumber you are... the more likely you vote for Clinton.

There are simply not enough Obama voters in West Virgina............... TYPICAL!!!


Does anyone have a tooth brush..... ya-ll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm an Obama supporter here in WV, but your comments about the residents of my state reminds me there are asses on both sides of the contest.

Just because an election isn't going your way doesn't give you the right to condemn a whole state. That's pretty damn childish.

I stand corrected. In retrospect those previous comments were wrong. I really appreciate your hard work in West Virgina to help our country.

We are never going to unite everyone by appealing to stereotypes.

I'm sorry.

Dividing people by race, class and culture is not what the Obama campaign is about.

I can't wait to hear Hillary spin this as another "come from behind victory!"

Ever...ever...ever... nope! She came from behind... I mean...

:puke:

would bother a non-racist, blue collar, white worker in West Virginia.

n/t

"I've ALWAYS been a Mountaineers fan..."