Did Obama and clinton have an even playing field?

Why Hillary Will Probably Win

George Will doesn't get very much right anymore, but when he told George Stephanopooulos the primaries were "already in the fourth inning," he was on the money. It may only be February, and most voters may not be planning to tune into the election for another year, but Hillary Clinton already has a sizeable advantage that lesser candidates will find nearly impossible to overcome. There's a little wiggle room for Obama and Edwards, but not much, and it's going to fade fast. By summer, we will be in a two-person race with a dark horse candidate (ala Dean '03) trying to hang on.

The reason? Money and resources. Primaries require vast infusions of cash for advertising and staffers on the ground. This will cost millions for every state primary a candidate seriously competes in. There are only so many people who can give that kind of money, and a relatively small pool of staffers with the kind of chops to win elections. And so, while it may only be February, Hillary is doing her best to corner the market and deliver an early coup de grâce to her competition:

Last night, the New York Democrat invited about 70 top fundraisers from around the country to a reception at her Washington home. The guest list included such major Democratic donors as Haim Saban, a Hollywood studio investor, Alan J. Patricof, a New York financier, and Kevin O'Keefe, a Chicago lawyer.

The high-dollar rainmakers committed to collect at least $250,000 each during the presidential campaign for Clinton, and many have pledged $1 million, participants said. In addition, each agreed to raise $50,000 by the end of this month to bolster the campaign's first-quarter report due at the end of March.

Hillary has enormous institutional advantages: thanks to Bill, her Rolodex Razr has the number of every major Democratic donor and political hack in the country. Money is attracted to power, not ideals, and Hillary is very strong. Being an early funder for the next president gives the kind of access the big players want. And of course, the more Hillary raises, the more she looks like a sure bet. By summer, major donors will have selected their (wo)man and candidates who aren't considered serious will find that the wells have gone dry. Finally, at a certain point, the Democratic establishment will have to pick sides, and if team Hillary is far out in front, she will be able to count on institutional party support, PAC, and special interest backing.

http://www.blueoregon.com/2007/02/why_hillary_wil.html (2/2007)