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Obama strategy on Tues. night

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MattNC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:04 AM
Original message
Obama strategy on Tues. night
Anyone else think the Obama campaign should announce a significant number of superdelegates on Tuesday evening right around the time the WV primary is being called for Clinton? Seems like a way to try and offset Clinton's positive new cycle from the expected big win in the state. Sure it will steal Clinton's thunder, but after her behavior in the last few days I don't care quite too much about acting delicate toward her campaign.
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TwilightGardener Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:13 AM
Response to Original message
1. I don't know that anyone really gives a shit about WV, besides the Clintons and WV.
I think since she's expected to win, it's just not going to be a threat to Obama's nomination chances, and since she made her awful race comments, she's tainted her own victory there.
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Blue_Roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:16 AM
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2. Is he campaigning at all in WV?
Haven't heard ...
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. He'll be there on Monday
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george_maniakes Donating Member (831 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:20 AM
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4. whats the delegate split if she wins 70-30? n/t
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Hawkeye-X Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. If Hillary wins 70-30, then...
it'll be only 20-8, with only a net gain of 12.

WVA has 28 delegates at stake.

Obama can counter that with Pelosi Club endorsements (9) plus 3 more SD's. Obama is very close to hitting the Pelosi Club number.

Hawkeye-X
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SoFlaJet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
6. that's a damn smart idea Matt
maybe have a PC with about 8 newly pledged SD's behind him that night
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-10-08 11:44 AM
Response to Original message
7. It's been his strategy all along...
Every time Hillary wins a few more delegates than Obama in any given primary, a few more SDs announce for Obama... Hillary tries to counter with her hole cards (her SDs in reserves) and Obama trumps that with a few more.

Probably better than announcing them all at once (which Brokaw and the media assumed he would do).

He still will declare victory after Oregon puts the pledged delegate race to bed once and for all... and then I expect at least 79 more SDs by then OR the day following Oregon. 79 is what most calculators come up with as the OUTSIDE number to clinch, even if he loses WV, KY and Puerto Rice badly (70-30 in each) and wins OR, MT and SD narrowly or ties in each.

79 more SDs and the worst results possible in the rest of the primaries and Obama has 2025 or more. At that point I would expect to see a lot more SD defections from the Clinton camp, which will make the "nuclear option" inoperable.
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