From comrade Fred Barnes:The political environment isn't as bad as it was in 2006 when Republicans lost both houses of Congress and a lot more. But it's close.
More than 80 percent of Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Democrats have steadily maintained the 10 percentage point lead in voter preference they gained two years ago. And President Bush's job performance rating is stuck in the low 30s, a level of unpopularity that weakens the Republican case for holding the White House in 2008.
There's another piece of polling data that is both intriguing and indicative. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC survey last month, John McCain fared better with Republican voters (84 percent to 8 percent) than Barack Obama did with Democrats (78 percent to 12 percent). McCain was also stronger than Obama among independent voters (46 percent to 35 percent).
These are terrific numbers for McCain. But they aren't enough. In the overall match-up, McCain trailed Obama (43 percent to 46 percent). The explanation for this seeming paradox is quite simple: The Republican base has shrunk. In 2008, there are fewer Republicans.
"It's the erosion in party affiliation that's pulling McCain down," says a Republican strategist, and it could doom his chances of winning the presidency. The strategist fears Republican leaders and McCain campaign officials "don't realize the trouble they're going to be in."
The worst news for Republicans in recent weeks has been the capture by Democrats of two Republican House seats in special elections in Illinois and Louisiana. Poorly chosen candidates were responsible for the defeats, Republicans insist. Maybe, but success in special elections usually foreshadows success in the next general election.
McCain must overcome a "generic" presidential preference for a Democratic president of 51 percent to 33 percent (in the WSJ/NBC poll). He'll have to appeal more strongly than Obama to independents, moderates, and soft Democrats. The good news for McCain is that 20 percent of Clinton supporters in primary exit polls and other surveys say they'll vote for him over Obama.
Republicans need a minimum of 45 senators to pursue a filibuster strategy and block or alter Democratic legislation. They currently hold 49 Senate seats, but at least 7 of those are in jeopardy this year. Only 41 votes are required for a successful filibuster, but a few Republicans always defect--thus the need for 45.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/096pstor.asp