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After Tuesday's WV primary, Hillary will likely be behind Obama by more than the remaining delegates

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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 03:14 PM
Original message
After Tuesday's WV primary, Hillary will likely be behind Obama by more than the remaining delegates
Obama currently leads Hillary by 167.5 delegates.

In the remaining states' contests, there are only 217 pledged delegates who have not yet pledged.

After Tuesday's WV primary, there will be only 189 pledged delegates who have not been assigned.

Hillary will win WV, but both Obama and Hillary will be assigned pledged delegates.

Obama will also accumulate additional super delegates between now and Tuesday night.

If the pledged delegates Obama is awarded out of WV plus the additional super delegates he wins between now and Tuesday night total just 21.5, Obama will lead Hillary by an amount that is more than the remaining pledged delegates who will not have been pledged. Once Obama reaches this number, several uncommitted delegates -- including Nancy Pelosi -- will pledge to Obama.

I have been thinking that the contest would end on May 21. It might end a week earlier.
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rsmith6621 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 04:09 PM
Response to Original message
1. Please.......


...no more MATH....please Ive got a headache.
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indimuse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 04:14 PM
Response to Original message
2. Get out Hillary ...So Obama can WIN! hahaha!
Not gonna happen! Obama does NOT ahve enough!

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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 05:47 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I didn't say anything about Hillary getting out of the race; she (and Ron Paul) can stay in all the
way to their respective party conventions for all I care.

There are only 2 differences between Hillary staying in the race and Ron Paul staying in his party's race:

(1) Ron Paul has the class to refrain from attacking his party's nominee or insulting many of his party's voters along racial lines, and

(2) Ron Paul's campaign is awash in cash and not in debt like Hillary's.

Frankly, I only care about the first distinction; if Hillary wasn't running a negative campaign, I would be glad she was still running.
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Larry in KC Donating Member (465 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. Ridicule works better without gross misspelling.
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dionysus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:22 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. nice projection, i like it...
:rofl:
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 06:18 PM
Response to Original message
4. Obama just picked up another super, so he needs only 20.5 to lock it down!
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
5. that is totally bogus math
you are forgetting that she will get delegates too so the margin will likely go down, not up, even with SD. I will say she has lost barring some stampeed of superdelegates that is currently unforseeable, but she won't be mathematically eliminated before Oregon.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 09:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. The total number of pledged delegates from all states and territories will not go up or down. Obama
will have a number of delegates such that his delegate lead is a numerical value greater than the numerical value of the total of all of the remaining pledged delegates who remain unassigned because those states have not had their primaries yet. At this point, several unpledged super delegates -- most notably, Nancy Pelosi -- have said they will then pledge for Obama once he reaches that threshold. My point is, Obama may reach that threshold with the delegates he wins from WV even before the race makes its way to OR and KY.
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-12-08 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Your numbers only work if you assume his lead stays static
which it won't. His lead will be cut after WV, presuming she gets more delegates than he does.
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Stop Cornyn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:17 PM
Response to Original message
8. k
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