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Bad Polling News for Clinton Out of KY Ruins Another One of Her messages

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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 09:35 PM
Original message
Bad Polling News for Clinton Out of KY Ruins Another One of Her messages
Edited on Sun May-11-08 10:14 PM by hnmnf
Edit for new thread subject

In a new poll out of KY by research 2000, Hillary beats Obama 58-31. That was expected. But the problem for Hillary is that she claims that she will win in KY in November (WV too). Well, this poll puts that to rest, as Clinton loses to McCain 53-41 in Kentucky. I guess KY wont be that swing state she thought she could make of it.

http://www.kentucky.com/254/story/402089.html
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crankychatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 09:37 PM
Response to Original message
1. k/r - right on - n/t
yup
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 09:41 PM
Response to Original message
2. Agree with your read on this. Also think there's a good chance that McCain
will lose it. Lose the election, certainly, but I mean lose it. I'm talkin' hooby-shooby lose it -- the cheese flying off his cracker and his staff having to straitjacket the old kook in the basement.

Obama is quite a bit younger but also quite a bit more resolved and settled. McCain presents as explosive and ill-prepared all at once, and possibly ill.

These folks are angling for a mighty difficult job and I'm just not seeing anything in John McCain that suggests he has the talent or the temperament to handle it.

Strong point, Nance, well-made, and necessary to boot. Thank you.


:hi: :thumbsup: :dem:
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charlie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:29 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. It looks to me like McCain
might be easing into the state of dementia that wasn't so apparent in Reagan until after he was shot. McCain's been cycling through past personas and positions the way Reagan used to relive his movies out loud. If he gets worse, he could be easy pickings.

OR... losing his marbles could sand the prickly edges off him and turn him into a genial boob like Reagan and he'll enjoy a 50-state landslide. I just don't know anymore. Not in this bag of bent impulses the country has become.
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powergirl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #2
18. Hooby Shooby - I'm adding that to my lexicon!
Whew! That is funny. I'm a southern gal and have not heard this euphemism. My husband is a Michigander and has never heard it. Love it! :toast:
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 11:16 PM
Response to Reply #18
28. I stole it from Joni Mitchell. Cheech and Chong -- of all people --
speak it in a description in one of her songs on COURT AND SPARK.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:14 PM
Response to Original message
3. Kick for new thread subject.
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CreekDog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:15 PM
Response to Original message
4. also, the coalition she said was "growing" is shrinking
her lead is down from 40 points.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:24 PM
Response to Original message
5. This was a very telling comment, imo...
"Clinton, meanwhile, is banking her survival in the race on big returns in Kentucky, as well as on Tuesday in West Virginia and Puerto Rico on June 1. The goal, Clinton strategists have said, is to overtake Obama in the national popular vote.

Depending on voter turnout May 20, a 27-point advantage in Kentucky could yield Clinton at least a 100,000 net gain in votes to cut into Obama’s 710,000-vote lead.

But Clinton’s campaign expects the race in Kentucky to get closer in the last week."
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:26 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. I've been trying to figure out turnout for WV, KY, and OR, but I havent been able to
She is going for the popular vote, and Id like to see her not get it.
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. For any gains she makes from WV and KY, OR will mostly negate. {nt}
uguu
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. I would assume turnout would be very high in Oregon because its a mail in ballot
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ORDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Yes, that's been one of the benefits of mail-in balloting here.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:30 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. For the popular vote...
It may hinge on Puerto Rico? From what I have read, Hillary is very strong there? It is expected to have about 2 million voters in their primary. It is possible that Hillary could overtake Obama there in the popular vote. But the popular vote doesn't matter? Right?
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Obama has won this thing, but as long as Hillary thinks she can get the pop vote, she'll be here.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. That's her game.
If she can somehow pull out the popular vote, she will say that she closed the 700,000 vote lead by Obama in the last 6 races and the momentum is with her. It would be foolish for the Super Delegates to vote for who had the most delegates - they should vote for the popular vote winner...
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Obamamaniac_25 Donating Member (74 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:51 PM
Response to Reply #11
24. Exactly-n/t
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high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #9
16. Popular vote is invalid
Edited on Sun May-11-08 10:40 PM by high density
Few if any of the caucus states reported a popular vote. The Clinton campaign has been successful in injecting this metric into the race, but it is biased towards them in this regard. If the race somehow gets decided on popular vote, it will mean that caucus states like Maine will have less influence over the race than Puerto Rico, which doesn't even have electoral votes.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. A conservative guess for WV is 350,000 or so in total turnout. That's what it was in 2004
in a non-competitive race. I think maybe 400,000 is possible, but not much more. Kentucky was only about 200,000 last time, but I think it could be about 70% of our GE turnout from last time so maybe 500,000 or so. Oregon could well be 500,000 to 600,000 or more.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:43 PM
Response to Reply #12
19. If those numbers were close to reality..
it would mean that Hillary could win by about 100,000 votes in both WV and KY. Obama could take a big chunk of those back in Oregon? Then Hillary would look to cut about 400K - 500K votes from Obama's total in Puerto Rico. Not much left in the other states, what are those, MT and SD??

Even if she did not come out ahead in the popular vote but managed to cut Obama's lead from 700K to 200K, she would say that she has cut his large lead because she has the momentum. That would be her argument to the super delegates that are still uncommitted. That's all she wrote, Dear John, I sent your saddle home...
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. then she would argue for the popular vote out of Michigan and Florida.
But her getting a big popular vote win in PR would not sell SDs
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Bingo !
And that is why she wants Obama to commit to resolving MI and FL now. In her advantage, of course.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:50 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Well, she turned down the 69-59 solution because it didnt contain the popular vote.
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AllentownJake Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
13. She will still say it.
She wasn't supposed to win Indiana remember?
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
14. I think Obama can get another 10 points added to that by Primary day
Every day is a disaster for Clinton from here forward. And I think by the time the smoke clears. Obama will be down only 10 in Kentucky and up by 10 in remaining states.
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Obamamaniac_25 Donating Member (74 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 10:50 PM
Response to Original message
23. Awesome!!!!
If he can keep Kentucky to within 20, his popular vote lead is even more likely to hold up. That's what I'm focused on more than anything else right now.
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 11:01 PM
Response to Original message
25. Obama should be brutally frank and honest with KYians and WVians.
When Republicans are in power, jobs are lost. When jobs are lost, the depression hits KY and WV first. Think before you vote. That is all. Thank you very much.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. I dont think that will stop them from voting for Hillary
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kentuck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. They think Hillary will return them to the good ol' days of the 1990's...
But it ain't gonna happen. This mess is much worse than anything Bill had to deal with. She will inherit her old enemies and all the old arguments and stalemates, I fear. We need to make a clean break with the entire gang. Just my opinion.
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democrattotheend Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-11-08 11:17 PM
Response to Original message
29. 58-31 is not that bad
I was expecting a 40 point spread...27 points is not as bad as I had expected.
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