So That "double digit" Ohio Win?...didn't happen

No double-digit OH win for Clinton?
by brownsox
Mon May 12, 2008 at 06:45:38 AM PDT
Diarist svotaw1992 reported on this Friday in a recommended diary (major props for discovering this).

It appears that the official results for the Ohio Democratic presidential primary are in, and Hillary Clinton did not win by double digits after all.

Unofficial results from the Secretary of State's office reported Clinton with 1,212,362 votes (54.29%), compared to 982,489 votes for Barack Obama (44.00%).

Thus the "10-point Clinton win" we've all been hearing about.

It seems, however, that official results have decreased her margin quite significantly, by roughly 1.5 points. The Secretary of State's office has not added the statewide totals, so far as I can tell, but they list the official results by Congressional district here.

One can add those numbers relatively easily, and they show Hillary Clinton with a total of 1,259,620 votes in Ohio, or 53.5%, compared to Barack Obama's 1,055,769 votes, or 44.8%.

So it seems that Clinton's margin of victory was, in fact, slightly less than 9%, rather than clearing 10%.

There is quite a disparity between the unofficial and official results, over 120,000 votes (with the bulk of that going to Obama). It's likely that a good bit of this can be attributed to provisional ballots being counted, although that can't be the only reason; just under 100,000 provisional ballots were actually approved for the election, and presumably some of those were requested by Republican voters.

The fine people at The Green Papers have updated their numbers, and they state that there shouldn't be any change in delegates for Clinton or Obama.

We're looking into the source of the discrepancy, and have attempted to contact the Ohio Secretary of State's office regarding this.

not quite 10%, put Ohio in the Obama column, that's only fair

Fun with numbers.

I say to them don't shoot me I'm only the messenger

would account for the disparity. I see no reason in the world why Ohio would vote Republican this year... In 2006, they underwent a massive party shift and that will probably carry over.

Oh wait, since Hillary won, I guess this isn't like Indiana.

Wait, did I say tie-breaker for Indiana? I meant it's going to be close, but no not tie-breaker. :eyes:

Indiana has now been shaved down to less than one point once the provisional ballots were counted.

Obama will have to get another rewrite if that keeps getting shaved down.

why not?

I went over the numbers too, and in the statewides, PLEOs and At-Larges, there was no shift in delegates. If anything Hillary had been close to a shift her way before these votes.

And in the districts there was perhaps one that was close enough that it might had been affected by this - but alas no cigar.

:hi: