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The Clinton Camp will not be Happy with Tonight's Victory

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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:24 PM
Original message
The Clinton Camp will not be Happy with Tonight's Victory
The only metric they care about anymore is popular vote. Terry McAuliffe said they were expecting as much as 500,000 voters in West Virginia. The problem: Much less than 500,000 voters showed up to the polls. Instead of getting the 205,000 vote margin she would have gotten with that turnout and these percentages, she will net probably 150,000 votes. That will put Obama's lead in the popular vote at 570,000, and that doesnt count 5 or so caucuses that would actually make his lead about 675,000 votes. The lower turnout for the first time really worked against Hillary tonight. With Oregon and KY she may still get some more popular votes, but not very much at all in the next two states. by Next week, Obama should still be up by more than 500,000 voters and dont expect the popular vote to be seated out of Michigan and possibly not Florida. Her last metric that she has clung to will go out the window too.


Oh and congrats to the Clinton supporters for your victory tonight.
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. That's why tonight was a bit of a pyrrhic victory for her---the popular vote metric didn't
happen the way she needed it to.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:26 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. She needed at least 50,000 more votes.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. She needs a similar win in Kentucky and to tie him in Oregon while getting Florida
to count. If he wins by 10 points in Oregon, which seems likely, she really can't do this.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. She wont win by 40 in KY.
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. Exactly. I think it'll be 15 points in KY
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Nah, I think it will be more like 22 points
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. just to nitpick a bit....Why would she gain any popular votes from OR?
there's no way she'll win OR
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:29 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Her win in KY could be bigger than his in OR
so with those two added together, she could potentially net more votes.
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blitzen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. oh, i see what you mean...Yeah, that could be.
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DesEtoiles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:29 PM
Response to Original message
8. Chuck Todd said lower - 130,000
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. considering shes up 138,000 right now, Id say Chuckie's wrong
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sfam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-13-08 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
12. Why do you think last week's metric will relate to next week's metric? Its the swing states, dammit
Edited on Tue May-13-08 11:36 PM by sfam
Don't you know that? The only states that truly matter are the swing states - and of course the swing states are those states which Hillary won. We should ONLY care about them, because that's where elections are decided.

All this nonsense about delegates and total votes is all hogwash. Its only because we Dems have such a flawed campaign process that we don't recognize this.
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Skip Intro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:05 AM
Response to Original message
13. The popular vote doesn't get "seated." But MI and FL should, at the very least, count toward the pop
vote.
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emilyg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
14. I'm happy. Thank you.
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jazzjunkysue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:22 AM
Response to Original message
15. Plus, do the donors or Super's really care all that much about WV?
They're not fools. They know the demographic. The'll see immediately that Obama took away a bunch of votes from that state without even campaigning there. That's what will impress the donors and the supers.

It's only proof that he'll keep taking the 30-35% he needs to tip it in a couple more races.

It only confirms his nomination. This black man took a whopping chunk out of WV without even trying.

At this point I think the remaining supers are waiting for the May 31st rules committee meeting to hide behind. They ned to tell her they stayed "open" for those results. They can't afford to totally piss off the Clintons-They're letting her play out her ego fix until the bitter end, when they'l write her notes apologizing with phrases like "For the good of the party and unification..."

That's what they're waiting for.

I don't know what CLinton's waiting for.
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:23 AM
Response to Reply #15
16. Donors will donate, SDs will endorse Obama
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thoughtcrime1984 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-14-08 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
17. Popular vote means nothing anyway, right?
States wouldn't have these awful :sarcasm: caucuses if popular votes were the metric used for the nomination, and the candidates would have focused more on the heaviest populated areas. Amazing how campaigns work to win the metric that they are told will give them victory, huh? Of course, the rules are made to be changed re: MI/FL and also what constitutes winning the nomination, right Hil?
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