THE MATH – Wednesday, May 14 – After West Virginia

THE MATH – Wednesday, May 14 – After West Virginia

2:15 p.m. Eastern Time (US)

Delegates needed to win nomination – 2,025.0 (considering status quo)
Pledged Delegates in – 3,064.0 of 3,253.0 – 94.2%

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THE MAGIC NUMBER

Here’s what we have after considering the information in the Polls section below and adding well-known add-on superdelegates for both candidates:

Senator Obama’s Magic Number – 11 of 180 remaining superdelegates needed, or 6.1%
Senator Clinton’s Magic Number – 188 of 180 remaining superdelegates needed, or 104.4%

The Huckabee Index – -8 (or -4.4% of remaining superdelegates needed)

The “Huckabee Index” is the number of any combination of superdelegates and convention/caucus delegates that the Obama campaign needs (or the Clinton campaign loses) to make it mathematically impossible for the Clinton campaign to win the nomination, based on current delegate count and polls for upcoming contests. (Disclaimer: This is meant to poke fun at Mike Huckabee, not Hillary Clinton)

Spreadsheet (Feel free to download)



PROJECTED END-RESULTS OF PRIMARIES BASED ON POLLS:

Projected Pledged Delegates at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 1,693 (66 above HALF) <--- Expected to reach halfway mark on May 20
Hillary Clinton – 1,542 (85 below HALF)



Projected Hybrid “Popular” Vote at the end of the race:
Barack Obama – 17,442,858 (+545,472)
Hillary Clinton – 16,897,386



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TOTAL DELEGATES

Estimated Total Delegates as of May 14:
Barack Obama – 1,889 (136 short)
Hillary Clinton – 1,720 (305 short)
Remaining Total Delegates – 421

SUPERDELEGATES

Superdelegates (highest reported for each candidate):
Barack Obama – 287 (Source: AP 5/14/08)
Hillary Clinton – 276 (Source: NBC 5/14/08)
Remaining Superdelegates – 233

PLEDGED DELEGATES

Estimated Pledged Delegates as of May 14:
Barack Obama – 1,602 (25 short of HALF) <--- This is the Pelosi Club number
Hillary Clinton – 1,444 (183 short of HALF)
Remaining Pledged Delegates – 189
(Source: CNN 5/14/08)

OVERALL CONTESTS WON: Barack Obama – 32; Hillary Clinton – 18

PRIMARIES WON: Barack Obama – 17; Hillary Clinton – 15

CAUCUSES WON: Barack Obama – 14; Hillary Clinton – 3

BLUE AND RED STATES WON:
Barack Obama – 11 Blue, 17 Red
Hillary Clinton – 7 Blue, 10 Red

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HYBRID “POPULAR” VOTE (for informational purposes only)

Disclaimer: The purpose of votes in a primary election cycle is to select delegates. Superdelegates may use a hybrid total of votes as a method of choosing which candidate to endorse, but doing so doesn’t justify the universal existence of such a method.

Status Quo, as of May 14:
Barack Obama – 16,353,368 (+674,969)
Hillary Clinton – 15,678,399
(Source: Wikipedia plus WV results 5/14/08)

With Florida only added, as of May 14:
Barack Obama – 16,929,582 (+380,197)
Hillary Clinton – 16,549,385

With Florida and Michigan added, as of May 14*:
Barack Obama – 16,929,582 (+51,888)
Hillary Clinton – 16,877,694
*Uncommitted – 238,168 (Michigan only, Obama wasn’t on the ballot)

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 50/50 SPLIT

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 191 of 180, or 105.8% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 186 of 180, or 103.1% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 178 of 192, or 92.4% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 174 of 192, or 90.4% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 50/50:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 9 of 180, or 4.7% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 24 of 180, or 13.3% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 12 of 192, or 6.0% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 28 of 192, or 14.6% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

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SUPERDELEGATES NEEDED IF REMAINING PLEDGED DELEGATES ARE 55/45 CLINTON

All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.

Hillary Clinton needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Clinton needs 181 of 180, or 100.6% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Clinton needs 176 of 180, or 97.8% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 168 of 192, or 87.5% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Clinton needs 164 of 192, or 85.4% of remaining SDs

Barack Obama needs #/% of remaining superdelegates if remaining pledged is 55/45:
1. Status Quo – Obama needs 18 of 180, or 10.0% of remaining SDs
10. FL Half-count, MI not seated – Obama needs 34 of 180, or 18.6% of remaining SDs
11. FL not seated, MI Compromise – Obama needs 21 of 192, or 10.9% of remaining SDs
12. FL Half-count, MI Compromise – Obama needs 38 of 192, or 19.5% of remaining SDs

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

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FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN SCENARIOS REGARDING PLEDGED DELEGATES

These are the possible scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and what it would require for Senator Clinton to catch up to Senator Obama in pledged delegates. These scenarios are for pledged delegates only. Superdelegate counts are not included. (Note: All scenarios (2 through 9) showing Florida or Michigan being seated as is or holding new elections have been removed.)

The “Florida Half-count” would net 52.5 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 33.5 pledged delegates for Senator Obama. The “Michigan Compromise” would net 83.0 pledged delegates for Senator Clinton and 73.0 pledged delegates for Senator Obama.

Scenario 1 – Status Quo (without Florida and Michigan)
Senator Obama needs 8.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 91.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 10 – Florida Half-count, Michigan not seated
Senator Obama needs 13.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 86.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 11 – Florida not seated, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 10.8% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 89.2% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

Scenario 12 – Florida Half-count, Michigan Compromise
Senator Obama needs 15.9% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to stay ahead
Senator Clinton needs 84.1% of all pledged delegates in remaining contests to catch up

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Latest Polls:
Oregon
Kentucky
Puerto Rico
South Dakota

More Links:

Brokered Convention

Official Delegate Selection Rules for the 2008 Democratic National Convention

Link to the spreadsheet (feel free to download and create your own scenarios): Spreadsheet

Link to my journal … Click on the link to view all past editions of THE MATH:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

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(thanks, dbmk!)



Please keep this thread bumped for easier access in GDP.



.

Thanks!

... by the end of the primary season to 2,026. (see downthread)

That was a terrific win for us, wasn't it? :D

:toast:

Mr. Edwards.

Funny thing, when Florida and Michigan are finally seated (August), it will be at half delegates according to Rule 20.C.1.a. They can't be certified in compliance, so the penalty will stick.

2025 (or 2209) will become 2112. Obama is projected at 2033 now.

Even Clinton's nuclear option will fail.

:P

We're beyond math.

Quantum mechanics or string theory at this point.

19 delegates would look like:



We have an official nominee!

I am granting permission for everyone to use any of this information, in whole or in part, in other threads here on DU, and anywhere on the internet.

- phrigndumass

Have a good day, DUers!

mmmmmm, dark chocolate bon bons! :D

especially if your face is smeared with chocolate. :hi:

cuuuuuuuuuuute!

Great work!

Truly appreciated.

:hi:

:rofl:

Thanks to dbmk! :toast:

works for me :D

Great work and thanks for posting.

K&R

... que yo sepa

gracias, el Atomico Gatito!

:P

what would happen if Michigan and Florida were seated "as is" with unpledged and Edwards delegates going towards Obama?

It seems like even if that happened, she'd still be WAY, WAY behind. :shrug:

Thanks for these updates. :hi:

}(

So why not just give her Michigan and Florida to shut her the hell up? :shrug:

I wrote a post about this yesterday :) ... First the Rules Committee on May 31, then a recommendation to the Credentials Committee after the primaries.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5953269

:hi:

:hi:

at heart. Nixon would have stepped down in a Republican primary long ago. As a matter of interest, who wouldn't have?

but it's a coup that will fail.

:hi:

* 2,026 is what's needed to nominate now -- one higher than yesterday after Dems won the congressional seat in MS-1.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/14/1020793.aspx

They're adding 1 to the halfway mark, when they should be adding 1/2. The total delegates before yesterday was 4,048, and adding 1 would total 4,049. Half of that is 2,024.5, and a majority would be 2,025.

Thanks for pointing that out, though! :)

(side note: DemConWatch had been slamming MSNBC this year for keeping lousy track of superdelegates)

:hi:

Thank you for spending your time to bring us this
information, already bookmarked.

Peace!!!


:thumbsup: :hi:

:hi:

especially when all the equations simplify so beautifully!!!

but lo and behold, someone will come along and look at the math and suggest Obama has no chance (lol)

:hi:

which many people just don't have.

:thumbsup:

and kick.

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:toast:

:toast:

(Obama is up by 20 points in Oregon!)

:hi:

Edwards delegates

very close to Pelosi

7 pledged delegates, and Obama will win those easily next Tuesday! Supers may flood us in force now that Edwards has endorsed Obama. Gore is next!

:woohoo:

I'll admit it. !!

Give it an hour or two, hopefully someone new will join the Pelosi Club.

"fuck yeah!"

Obama needed only 11 as of noon today, and 18 would project him at 2,032!!!!!

:hi:

It will be interesting to see the Edwards effect in the next few days.

He will be the nominee.