Is today the day? Obama leads by 185 delegates. Only 189 voter-selected delegates remain unpledged.

source: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

Once Obama's lead over Hillary exceeds the total number of voter-selected delegates who remain unpledged because their states or territories have not yet conducted their primaries, the only way Hillary can win is with the remaining unpledged super-delegates flipping the result.

That will not happen.

This race has been over for more than a month, but when Obama gains just 4 more delegates, we can officially bury the corpse.

P.S. - I like Hillary even though I think her campaign has been too negative for too long. If I could draw all of her supporters a hot bath and pour them all a nice cup of tea, I would. When Edwards dropped out that's all I wanted: a hot bath and a nice cup of tea.

but Hillary can still beat him fair and square--all she has to do is win all five of the remaining contests with at least 85.5% of the vote.

:headbang:
rocknation

You could say "Obama doesn't clinch the lead until he gets 2025 delegates" ...

or you could say "he doesn't clinch the lead until he gets 24 more pledged delegated and claims the majority of pledged delegates" ...

or you could say "Obama doesn't clinch the lead until his overall delegate lead is greater than all the remaining pledged delegates who have not pledged yet."

All three are different measures of success.

I am referring to the third measure.

This is just one measure of success among many, the 24 more pledged delegate threshold is just a different threshold. All thresholds are just weigh-stations on the trip to 2025 delegates.

clinching the pledged delegate lead would absolutely eliminate Hillary mathematically. That means he's halfway through metric #2, and the mission should be accomplished on Tuesday.

:headbang:
rocknation

Is people feel free to make their own arbitrary metric, and when one can do that you can find one that shows their chosen candidate as winning, or at the very least not eliminated. The popular Clinton metric is to include FL and MI fully seated and to view SD endorsements as quite loose, making determining a winner all but impossible shy of a floor vote. And of course Obama supporters view things differently. They run the numbers excluding FL and MI completely, include the SD endorsements as solid, take into account flipped pledged delegates from both Edwards and Clinton, and sometimes even include assumed add-on SD advantages from upcoming appointments.

From my perspective I choose not to focus on any particular metric of position, but rather direction. Obama now holds his largest delegate lead of the entire contest, and it increases week to week. If Clinton were going to win, at some point she would have to slow Obama down, at some point she would actually have to start to reduce his lead, at some point she would have to tie him. The same could have been said as far back as after Wisconsin, and at the time what was argued was there was plenty of time for "some point" to be reached. Now with 3 days of contests left, the time has long since past to reach the first point, let alone the second or third. The only way Clinton can "win" is exactly the same as the same way she only had months ago, wait for an Obama implosion that forces him to drop out. If Obama is still a candidate at the convention, he is our nominee.

I am an Obama person who as you can tell never replys to anything but your post are just false if you are going to include super delegates in the total then you have to include the 232 supers that are left along with the pledge delegates.

The magic numbers are 24 for the pledged lead and 127.5 to clinch the nomination with supers per the Obama site.

a mathematically insurmountable PLEDGED DELEGATE lead. I'm offering as a different metric the fact that once his overall lead exceeds the total number of pledged delegates who have not yet pledged, that gives Hillary one less basis on which to pretend that she can possibly win the delegate majority.

I am NOT using the terms "delegate" and "pledged delegate" (i.e., "voter-selected delegate") synonymously. If I meant "pledged delegate" every time I typed "delegate," the information would be false, but that is not what I typed and not what I meant.

and she can be refused a speaking spot.

Ask Jerry Brown.

...."Refused a speaking spot"? Are you serious? Oh, I see. We don't need a unified party to fight McCain and the Republicans.....

I get it.....

and sorry, that is the number unless the RBC and DNC change it, or when he reaches whatever number the RBC decides on (please read the AP's article and interview with RBC members that makes clear that they won't be giving Hilly what she so desperately wants and needs) Clinton's campaign will be over. The SDs have made it crystal clear they won't let this go to the convention. And Hillary is completely and totally done when he reaches the number needed for the nomination. And he now only needs 123. She needs 309. Do you get the picture? If she keeps going after that, she'll reap a whirlwind of fury from SDs and pledged delegates alike.

...by the credential committee. States have held elections but delegates haven't been certified.

http://www.demconvention.com/certified-delegates-ec

It appears that he may have "provisionally" crossed the rubicon. Assuming that Edwards' delegates go to Obama (which is pretty likely), then Obama's lead over Clinton is 196 -- more than the remaining number of pledged delegates remaining.

Hillary would have to win every remaining Pledged Delegate and then win 120 of the remaining 232 Super Delegates in order to be ahead. In other words, in a race that has been dead even for the past three months, she would suddenly have to sprout wings and win nearly 75% of what's left.

Not very likely.