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Obama only needs about one superdelegate endorsement a day on average and this is over on June 3

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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 02:21 AM
Original message
Obama only needs about one superdelegate endorsement a day on average and this is over on June 3
Look, it's simple math. Obama needs 122 more delegates. Giving him the following numbers:

Kentucky - 16
Oregon - 29
Puerto Rico - 24
Montana - 9
South Dakota - 8

And he wins 86 more pledged delegates. That leaves 36 more needed to win.

Between now and June 3, Obama will likely pick up the add-ons from these states:

Today - Kansas and Colorado
Sunday - 2 from California (state chair has said he'll appoint 3 Hillary and 2 Obama).
May 24 - Alaska, Georgia, Vermont and Wyoming. Georgia has two, and Obama could easily take both.
May 25 - Hawaii
May 31 - Maine

That's 10 more for Obama (possibly 11). Counting only 10, he then needs only 26 more superdelegates.

Then there's those who have pledged to support the delegate winner. Declared we have:

Maria Cantwell
Nancy Pelosi
Christine Pelosi
Jimmy Carter
Betty Richie
Denise Johnson

That's 6. No doubt many more who haven't declared publicly, but for the sake of the case, let's count only 6. That means Obama needs 20 more.

There's 18 days until the final primaries on June 3. So outside of this, Obama needs to average only a little more than one superdelegate endorsement a day. Something he's easily gone over the last few days. I suspect Obama is timing his endorsers going public so he can have Montana and South Dakota, not superdelegates, put him over the top.

Just do the math. This is going to be over very soon.
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Endangered Specie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 02:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. Obligatory Hillbot: "But wait its 2209" post.
Edited on Sat May-17-08 02:29 AM by Endangered Specie
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Double T Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 04:32 AM
Response to Original message
2. ALL the STATES have NOT had their primaries. Florida and Michigan VOTED........
and THEY still have NOT been 'officially' counted. How can ANY candidate declare 'victory', 'it's over' and 'I'm the nominee' when in FACT the process hasn't even finished, Two STATES and their voters have been disenfranchised and the campaign race is TOO CLOSE to call UNTIL important decisions are made that include ALL THE VOTERS? I thought DEMOCRATS were supposed to be about fairness and making certain ALL the votes by ALL the voters were counted. Hypocrites? It appears so.
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 05:09 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. We are NOT going to Include ANY numbers from those states until after a deciision is made on them.
Edited on Sat May-17-08 05:10 AM by Zachstar
Note the end date of June 3 Not May 20

It effectively is over on the 20th because the committee is NOT going to seat the 2 states as is. At that point it becomes impossible for Clinton to retake the pledged delegate lead. That is 17 from now not the 50 or so he will net after the next Tuesday.

Also be aware that the average is likely wayyy off because a number of supers are waiting for that point to endorse. So the average will likely be 3-4 not 1

So the OP is actually quite the side math.
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EmperorHasNoClothes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 07:45 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. FL and MI will be decided at the end of this month.
And however they are counted, it won't make a difference. Obama still wins in pledged delegates, superdelegates and the popular vote.
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Double T Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. YOU must own a crystal ball. Looks like YOUR crystal ball may need some Windex.
HRC will ultimately WIN, BO will be OUT.
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EmperorHasNoClothes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-18-08 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. .
:spray:
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ninja8590 Donating Member (73 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 04:34 AM
Response to Original message
3. Well he has the planned one(s) for after KY
Just like after WV right? The planned endorsements for strategy right?

--I'm so in awe of Obama's campaigning - seriously these were some great strategies! (GoBama!)
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-17-08 05:14 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. More than likely. Notice the slow day of supers yesterday.
In my view however I think what is going to be the shocker is going to be 10-20 Clinton supers switching to Obama. As at that point I think many news and other organizations will assume Obama is the presumptive nominee.

Along with likely Gore and thats that. Onward to the GE.
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