Boston Globe: Clinton closing in Oregon polls

The latest pre-primary polls suggest that Hillary Clinton has faint hopes of stalling Barack Obama's march to the Democratic nomination.

Obama had been leading by double digits in Oregon, where he expects to win on Tuesday, enabling him to declare victory in the pledged delegate race and perhaps sew up the nomination.

But the latest polls in Oregon show Clinton within striking distance. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent refusing a response, according to a Suffolk University survey released this morning. An American Research Group survey puts Obama's lead at 50 percent to 45 percent.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/05/clinton_closing.html

less people to talk to pollsters.

you will be that much more dissapointed.

I'm baffled. After listening to Hillary Clinton and her lemmings talk about
her uncanny talent for attracting "white" voters (and Obama's inability to do so),
I'm shocked that Obama is leading Clinton in Oregon, a predominantly white state.

How in the world did this happen?

Was Hillary Clinton wrong? Or are the voters of Oregon just confused?

:sarcasm:

they're just a bunch of dirty hippies. They don't count.

People who finished high school don't count either. And forget any
whites who have college degrees. They're just latte-lovin elitists,
who are just pretending to be white people!

They're clear.

Have you ever tried driving a stick-shift Audi TT while drinking
a hot latte with your Birkenstocks sliding on the clutch?

It's not only hard work, but it requires talent!

Please don't discount the strength and fortitude of these people.

you cant have smart people running things! with their fancy book learnins and big shot ideas.
everybody knows you vote for the idiots. that way you dont feel like youre an idiot and therefor you dont have to be jealous and youre massive ego can continue to grow with the excitement of knowing youll get to keep your ignorance a lil longer.

lol.

Kind of.

Woll = wool on Planet Hope.

Remember it's not about her "white" support. It's about the "HARD WORKING" white support. Us white folks that support Obama are all lazy trust fund babies. None of us have ever done shift work. None of us get up everyday at 4am to drag our tired asses into work for another 12 hour shift.

We are all sexist as well.

If/when Hillary loses by double-digits, it will be by more than the media chattering class expect and perhaps they will start telling the truth about how this campaign is effectively (if not mathematically) over.

that had Clinton tied with Obama in North Carolina...as an Obama supporter, I am ALL FOR upping the expectations for how Clinton will perform in Oregon tomorrow. I'm not worried.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/or/oregon_democratic_primary-298.html

:eyes:

primary season. Neither, I believe, was close in NC or IN. Secondly on an average, he's up 10.8. He'll win by 17+ in OR.

the longer this goes on!

This is worrisome.

27th and 22nd in median error and 20th and 24th in average error.

The only polling group that has done multiple polls here has been Survey USA, so it's hard to judge the one that had him at 20 or the one that had him at 4. It's poll movement in the same poll that tells much.
Survey USA had him at 6 up 4-30, 11 up om 5-09 and 13 up today so a gradual trend up.

And not just giving your preference.

Go back and look at the polls from just a few months ago.

Go back and look at the polls from just a few months ago.

Please stop or switch parties. Thanks.

Please stop!

Newspapers are biased against OUR NOMINEE!

:rofl:

Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 49.0/Clinton 41.8

The nomination poll is an average of the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and ABC News/Wash Post

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

----------

Real Clear Politics NATIONAL Average: Obama 47.2/McCain 43.4

The general election poll averages the latest polls from Gallup, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac,ABC News/Wash Post,POS/GQR and LA Times/Bloomberg

link:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 62.0% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189"

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up"

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

...are the campaign internal polls.

Clearly, the Clinton campaign knows she is going to lose by a great deal--she left the
state early.

Conversely, Obama will be in Iowa--celebrating where it all started, as he finally reaches
the magic number. He won't declare that it's over, but the handwriting on the wall will
be clear as he returns to Iowa--to celebrate hitting a major undeniable milestone in the
delegate count.

The decision to do this in Iowa wouldn't have been made if their internals didn't show
at least a double-digit lead--and probably a blowout.

After Tuesday, the math will be even more crystal clear. It will be a fantastic day for
Obama supporters.

say no more. They are consistently wrong and down right biased.

They get paid off-the-books by campaigns and then cook up skewed, "unbiased" numbers for the media.

Just who are they calling? If they can not get cell phone I do not think land line phones are so good any more.

Clinton is closing the gap in Oregon?

Where are her crowds of 80,000 if this is the case?

and all their whoopty doo hoopla and cheering.

:sarcasm:

Obama was projected to lose BADLY in Indiana, and possibly lose in NC. That was the story the day before the election.

for necroposting tomorrow.

Population as of July, 07 - 3,745,455; approx. 1/3 of which actually live in Multnomah and Washington - 1,221,100; 75,000 of which rallied in Portland. However the numbers are sliced & diced it's still good to see people excited about future prospects; whether they are there to support them, or on the periphery absorbing what they are able like sneaking into a Pink Floyd concert.

The numbers tightening represent some views in Oregon quite beyond the financial, educational, retirement/work-from-home centers. East of the Siskiyou there'll be pockets of Obama support i.e. Bend, and elsewhere...but the state fans out into territory not unlike California's range land & Central Valley where Obama lost. In fact, Obama didn't even carry Napa, which I thought was a given.

There are probably too many people in the populations centers that give few concerns for folks out in the outbacks of many locales I'll bet. Even though it will be interesting to see the breakdown of voting in Oregon; I suspect that with some variation, it will seem the same.

I see a poll in this thread that claims a spread of 11 pts I think it is...aside from Oregon saying they'd hand Obama a landslide; I'd still find it daunting to gather sample data from Eastern Oregon. And so I do I wonder if they are being properly represented.

than it may be in many other states. Our different regions seem to be inhabited by some very different kinds of people. Not surprising to see a massive rally in Portland...they are accustomed to them for almost any cause. And, in Portland, any day when it doesn't rain is great for rallies. (lol)

Bend is primarily a California community transplanted to Oregon. Eastern Oregon and south central Oregon are really difficult to read...aside from the Repug majority endemic to those communities. My county, Klamath, has 17,000 registered Repugs against 10,000 registered Dems for example.

We may have some early numbers tonight.

I don't know if its just Klamath Falls or not, but there are almost NO bumper stickers on any vehicle here. Not many signs this year either. Perhaps this will change after the primary.

Pendleton of all places!
Pendleton!

He will say he has the majority (Will be impossible for Clinton to catch up) but he is not going to say he won the nomination.

really, MM, who gives a fuck who you have on your ignore list? I certainly don\'t.

btw, I didn\'t write the article

sheesh, the arrogance

has she even BEEN in Oregon?

And while she didn't have 75K at a rally, she did manage to get 240K to show up to vote for her in West Virginia.

(After the media had declared the race, for all intents and purposes, over*)

Remember NC and Indiana.Most polls had Obama with a narrow lead In NC and Hillary with a large lead In Indiana.Obama won NC by 14 and lost Indiana by 1.

:rofl:

Some of you are just bad :rofl:

not so close after all....

:evilgrin:

four or five points separate them and he won by what, sixteen points? The poll was ridiculous.

for good

http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/05/presidential_results.html. w/72% in.

:rofl:

Really. I mean it.

:silly:

Can't wait to hear what's next!

:dem:

Fail.

:rofl:

It doesn't seem to be getting much airplay on the cable news shows for some mysterious reason.

Obama should have won by a landslide. Oregon is supposedly his demographic. People are beginning to lean towards Hillary...They seem to admire her strength and her tenacity of not giving up and are applauding her with their votes! Americans love an underdog..what more can be said.

amusement...................

As junior Senator from New York, definitely.

The only way she can win now would be to have the superdelegates overturn the elected delegates with Obama having won an absolute majority of elected delegates already.

How will she convince them to do that? By winning Puerto Rico?

>>>"The only way she can win now would be to have the superdelegates overturn the elected delegates with Obama having won an absolute majority of elected delegates already".<<<

The first sentence of your post doesn't make sense. The Super delegates are not imbued with any special power to overturn pledged delegates. I don't know where that notion came from but it's grossly overstated and misleading.

The Super delegates mean nothing until they vote at the Convention. They may do whatever they please between now and then. They can remain non-committal as many have chosen to do. They can chose a candidate now and observe first hand how the candidate is managing during the final primaries. At the Convention, they can walk to the other side if they feel the rival candidate has demonstrated the "strength" and the best chance of beating McCain.