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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:50 PM
Original message
KY crossover same as Bush/Kerry
MSNBC just did an analysis about the number of dems that said they would vote McCain if Obama won. They indicated that they where the exact same number that claimed they would cross from Kerry to Bush in 2004. essentially, KY and WV and demographic issues but geographic issues.

They also mentioned that they where shocked at the numbers of people who openly stated that race was a part of their decision.
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redstate_democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:51 PM
Response to Original message
1. Bill Clinton: Thank God for Ross Perot!
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MonkeyFunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #1
21. It's well accepted
that Bill Clinton would've won without Perot in the race.


But it's always nice to see an old freeper talking point used here.
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redstate_democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #21
35. You gotta be kidding, right?
:rofl:
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kerry lost Kentucky by 20%.
Is that the bar we are trying to meet with a Democratic nominee?
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. So would Clinton. KY is a long-term project, not a 2008 one.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. It's not a long-term project with Hillary. She would come much closer.
She would have a chance to win the state if she won the national popular vote by more than 5%.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Clinton would lose KY by 15-20 points. If she's won KY, then a dead rat could have beaten McCain.
Edited on Tue May-20-08 10:58 PM by Occam Bandage
"Much better," meaning we lose by 15 instead of 20, is kinda pointless in a winner-take-all system.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:00 PM
Response to Reply #13
17. False. Kentucky has a significant Democratic electorate.
Democrats consist of 45% of the electorate in Kentucky. Republicans consist of only 40% of the electoral in Kentucky.

If a Democratic nominee could hold onto that 45%, they could win the state. Kerry couldn't. Gore couldn't. Obama won't. But Bill did and Hillary can.
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virtualobserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. they are DINO's.......they don't vote for Democrats in the GE
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. They are culturally conservative Democrats.
I guess you could consider them DINOs. But they will vote for the Democratic nominee if there is a certain candidate that appeals to them. They voted for Bill in 1992 and 1996. They would likely vote for Hillary in 2008.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. They will vote for the Democratic nominee if they find that nominee more culturally appealing than
the Republican. Clinton certainly was more "like them" than Dole or Bush were. Do you really think the New York Liberal First Lady is gonna out-folksy the Old Republican War Hero Maverick?
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. That is your opinion.
Edited on Tue May-20-08 11:14 PM by NJSecularist
I consider Hillary more "like them" than a out of touch senator from the Southwest.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #28
33. I didn't think I was presenting someone else's opinion, but thank you. I'm not saying
that Obama is going to win KY. He won't. I'm not saying that HRC wouldn't do better. She would. But "better" in this context does not mean "win." KY is the longest of longshots, and invoking it for the GE is ridiculous. If Clinton wins KY, it means the Republicans have just suffered the most epic landslide since Reagan won re-election.
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #33
37. Exactly. And in the GE, states are winner take all.
So it means little if Hillary would do "better." A loss is a loss in the GE.
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:11 PM
Response to Reply #28
34. Which is ALSO your opinion. And Obama is from the Midwest, dummy.
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virtualobserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:13 PM
Response to Reply #25
38. they didn't vote for Bill in 92 and 96
Bill didn't even win a majority of voters in the entire country in 92,96

43 percent in '92 48 percent in '96

Perot captured a lot of these voters
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. Exactly. Perot got 19% of the overall vote in 92.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:03 PM
Response to Reply #17
24. There are few states without a significant Democratic electorate. People are often surprised
by the number of registered Democrats in solid Republican states. However, red-state Dems can't be expected to vote for blue-state Dems--and despite her "workin'-class" push this primary campaign, she's not going to be able to keep that image for more than a day in a general campaign.

This isn't the '90s, and HRC isn't Bill.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. Hillary has a chance to win the state.
You can say whatever you like. But Hillary is more like Bill than she is like Kerry or Gore. She will make Kentucky much closer than Gore and Kerry did.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Repeating that axiomatically does not make it so. HRC's cultural-conservative appeal is deeper than
Obama's, but isn't likely to withstand the slightest degree of heat. Pinning our GE hopes on HRC's ability to convince old down-home white guys that she's more of an old down-home white guy than John McCain is not a very smart idea.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:10 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. Kentucky is only a bonus to Hillary.
She does not need to win Kentucky to win the general election. But it's another state that she can win and Obama cannot.

What about those old down-home white guys from Ohio? Do they not count? :crazy: :crazy:
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #32
36. Correct. KY is not a meaningful state in the GE. It's like NE is to Obama--great if he wins it,
and he can win it while Clinton can't, but it's only going Dem if it's a landslide anyway.
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msallied Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #32
39. Are you effing kidding me?
She's a blue state Democrat. While registered Democrats will turn out in their state to vote for her in the Primary, it will not be enough to overshadow the overwhelming right-wing evangelical conservative vote that time and time again turns out for the Republican.
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. no, its the bar we face every cycle
and the same bar that Hillary would face.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. No, it's not. Hillary would do much better in Kentucky. n/t
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. gore lost KY and i doubt Hillay could do much better.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. Go look at 1992 and 1996. n/t
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. While this may be hard to believe, this is not 1992, nor is it 1996.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. And this isn't 2000 or 2004 either.
What's your point?

Do you have one?

A certain type of Democrat can win Kentucky if they can keep the conservative Democratic vote for crossing over.
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. bill clinton is a man
it is safe to assume that any demographic that contains racism will most certainly contain sexism as well.

Essentially, is solid red for us this year, just like WV.
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:09 PM
Response to Reply #15
30. That was over a decade ago
And Bill Clinton barely eeked out victories in Kentucky both times, likely thanks to a little help from Ross Perot.

But more importantly the landscape has changed since then. There were no red states and blue states and the electorate was less polarized. Look at some of the states Bush beat Dukakis in in 1988: Vermont, Connecticut, California, and Illinois. McCain wouldn't have a prayer in any of these states today even if we ran a nominee as poor as Dukakis. This is because their electorate has changed since 1988 and has become far more Democratic. The opposite effect has happened in places like West Virginia and Kentucky.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:10 PM
Response to Reply #15
31. Ross Perot
He took 13% to 15% of the vote.

Taking anywhere from 70,000 to 200,000 votes in KY and WV in 1992 and 1994.
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VolcanoJen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
3. Of the 21% who said race was a factor in their vote, 81% voted for Hillary.
Yes, that is pretty shocking, even to me, and I know Kentucky.

That was a very interesting segment just now. And the ever-excellent Rachel Maddow pointed out that Republicans have been winning the "hard-working white American vote" by about 9 points, consistently, for pretty much ever.
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gabeana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
6. This is why it is a hollow win for Hillary
as said early in the night, a battle ground state is Oregon, and who won that -- Obama
SD will take this into account, last week Obama received 18, I think Hillary got 3,
the same could happen this week
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slinkerwink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
7. it's Appalachia that has a problem with Obama
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
10. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
Raine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
12. I'm glad someone finally covered this
it shows how much the Democratic Party can ever really count on these Raygun Democrats. x(
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JMDEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
14. They've been smoking too much blue grass. nt.
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Hamlette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
19. oh shoot! I just wasted a OP on that same issue...was interesting thought, no? n/t
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Hamlette Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-20-08 11:03 PM
Response to Original message
23. what's left of the Dixiecrats I fear. Gawd I hate the south (no, not all of you!) n/t
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