SUSA North Carolina GE Poll: Obama -8%, Clinton +6%

"In a vote for president today, 05/20/08, 24 weeks until election day, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama, according to this exclusive WTVD-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's McCain 51%, Obama 43%.

"But, if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, Clinton defeats McCain. With Obama on the ballot, the Republicans carry the state, 51% to 43%. With Clinton on the ballot, the Democrats carry the state, 49% to 43%.

"Against Obama, among men, McCain leads by 14 points; among women, McCain leads by 1. Obama wins the youngest voters by 10 points; McCain wins voters 35+. McCain takes 63% of the white vote; Obama takes 89% of the black vote. 28% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Against Clinton, among men, McCain leads Clinton by 10 points; among women, Clinton leads McCain by 19 -- a 29 point gender gap.

"Clinton leads among voters under 65; McCain leads among those 65+. 17% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain."

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=89a1b144-de19-4715-bb6f-97b2e817a23b

How can these results be reconciled with the recent NC primary?

:crazy:
These polls don't matter, we're still in the primaries with two democrats running against each other.

from the gen election/

How did this work out for them?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=06dd4624-776e-440d-811a-79584a511f2f

I never look at them credibly, even when they are the outlier in favor of Obama.

...I expect McSame to win NC. This poll is meaningless, IMO.

I missed my sister's wedding damn it!

but on the bright side, I didn't have to buy her a present!

;-)

Clinton supporters are still piqued and saying they'd vote for McCain.

They'll come home.

And he isn't even a nice person.

Steve

I think the personalities of both Clinton and Obama have been stretched on these boards. They both seem very nice.

Even if Hillary loses NC by 1%, she gets NOTHING. Same as Obama. It's winner take all. This parsing over a few percentage points over a state that will undoubtedly go red in November is a waste of bloody time.

SUSA recieved very high rankings for the quality of their polls this year. Zogby has been the big bust of the year.

I understand what people are saying about how it is 6 months away from the election, but please don't use that excuse too often. Even if it does seem like there is plenty of time... when we see something like this we should all jump to action and do what we can. I live in NC and these numbers should not be acceptable, and we shouldn't accept them until our new nominee is beating McCain by double digits. We just have to work harder. I think it is doable, maybe, (I know NC is a tough state to crack). I think with Hillary as VP it might help to pull some people over for him, and he'll get a LOT of the AA vote, and cities like Charlotte and Greensboro will work well for him. Hillary or Bill could campaign in the mountain areas. Plus Edwards can campaign heavily for him. There ARE some of us who still really like the guy around here.

So I wouldn't say NC is a waste of time. Not this time around. We just need to work extra hard to make sure it can happy with Obama as our new nominee.


:)

Take any state and compare two or three polls of your choice. Polls are only useful if you realize they're like a compass with no letters.

Nifty :)

If people really believe Hillary would win a state that Bill Clinton couldn't win they are removed from reality.Hillary loses the primary by 14 points and we are suspose to believe she will win the
state In November.Oh Please.

What a joke these polls are sometimes

Those numbers look "right" - I just don't buy the presidential ones at all. She loses by 14 here, only to turn around and have a 28-point swing among the results two weeks later. SUSA sucks in the South this year. I don't know why they can't make the proper adjustments to their samples.

for Hillary. Hillary supporters are bitter right now, so they aren't voting for Obama at the moment.

But if the SD's gave Hillary the nomination over Obama his supporters would then be bitter and it would be Hillary polling weak in North Carolina. Imagine Hillary trying to win NC without the black vote. It's not possible. She's polling strong because Obama supporters are in a good mood, but if they have a reason to be pissed off Hillary's numbers would sink in a heartbeat.

I still can't help but have a bad feeling about all of this.

I still think Obama will compete there strongly.