Clinton Needs 181% of Remaining Delegates

By David Swanson

Pledged delegates are awarded by voters and caucus goers. Super-delegates are antidemocratic Party control freaks who have no business deciding anything. Of pledged delegates, now that Oregon and Kentucky have had their say, Senator Obama has 1,648 and Senator Clinton 1,493. There are 86 pledged delegates remaining to be awarded in Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. This means that Clinton can still pull it out if she picks up 181 percent of the remaining delegates.

This calculation doesn't count the 19 delegates whom John Edwards has encouraged to back Obama, or the delegates pledged to Clinton who have begun flipping for Obama. And it doesn't count Michigan or Florida, where no real contest has ever been run and from which states no delegates are being counted. It also doesn't count the Super Delegates, in which Obama holds a substantial lead.

Experts agree that Clinton stands a good and improving chance of pulling out a victory in the end, given her momentum, determination, and appeal to dumb people. Like soccer moms and Jews for Buchanan before them, dumb people are shaking up this election and coming into their own as an identity group with ever rising "self pride." The group intentionally avoids the term "self esteem" as being too difficult to spell.

"Dump People for Hilary" bumper stickers are showing up across the country and being shipped by the truck load to South Dakota, Montana, and Puerto Rico. (The trucks to Puerto Rico have been driving off bridges in the Florida Keys.) The stickers and other "dumb people" paraphernalia are being paid for by the Clinton campaign, even while the campaign's supporters have organized to stop making contributions and instead buy lottery tickets in all 50 states.

While her husband's campaign headquarters in 1992 famously posted a sign reading "It's the economy, stupid," Hillary Clinton's now boasts a three-foot high quote from H.L. Mencken:

"As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

Senator Obama has faltered in trying to portray himself as one of the dump people too, but Senator McCain has taken advantage of the latest election trend in a major way by inviting President Bush to join him on the campaign trail.

I still find it hard to believe that a Dem is relying on Karl Rove and Richard Mellon Scaife.

Maybe both a real and an altered one found its way into the WH back in the day (bought for Chelsea, natch)...

You're kinda freaking me out...

I chose this username a couple years ago (about halfway into my now years-long lurk) and only recently started posting in earnest.
PDX and prog though I be, lemme see what I can do about that.

Edited to add: Evidently there isn't much I can do about that. I'll do what I can to help dispel confusion should there be any, though.

My longevity doesn't matter since I haven't been posting most of that time -- I defer to your journal and post count. I will be back in very short order as a different person whose nick I hope isn't too close to somebody's.
Hope this helps.

Look completely foolish and removed from any sort of reality at all. Now she is fighting simply for the sake of having a fight.

He'll tell you that's exactly where they want to be and exactly how they planned it all along :rofl:

1. It's exciting

2. Hillary has the momentum

3. Send money to HillaryClinton.com

They have been in the glow of Reich-wing 'reality' for some time now. 181% should be no problem

to end it and end it now.

Remember what that did to Dean?

She may be waiting for that

The Iowa caucus. We're way beyond that point. Having said that, I must confess to not being aware of you're referring to.

The VERY next day, they started the "Dean is angry/Dean is crazy/Dean is unelectable" horseshit. And eventually they took one electronically manipulated feed from a condenser microphone and turned it into the "YEEEEEEAAAAAARRRRRRGGGGGHHHHH" heard around the world, as "evidence" that what they had claimed about Dean was "right" all along.

Sadly, people bought it. Dean finished third in Iowa, but so did Hillary. There's no way Iowa alone would have stopped him.

Math is part of the problem not part of the solution. I call on all Americans to denounce and reject math.

I rebuke you!

After the FEC report debacle.

Pythagoras was no lady, as far as I know. ;-)

I KNEW one day it would ruin something BIGTIME. Now I must go back and taunt former teachers.

that they are doing "Dumb People for Hillary" or "Dump People for Hillary?"

I wasn't sure if you were being sarcastic or doing a parody of the supposed "white working class people" who vote for Hillary. Do you really mean to say that white, working class people, soccer moms and Jews for Buchanan (what's that) are all "dumb" or should be "dumped."

Can you please clarify. I seem to be the only one who didn't get it... sorry...

proving i'm dumb

but i like it better that way

because it makes a point about how dumb people are as well as carrying a second meaning

:D

the pundits last night were saying the total pledged delegates will be 2118 or 2130 in the end. That means 50% of FL and MI equals either 83 or 105.

FL was about 50% to Hillary and 33% to Obama. MI was 55% to Clinton with 0% to others. Remember these primaries were very early on so all names were still in the race.

MI offered a compromise of 69 to Clinton and 59 to Obama. Obama accepted it, Clinton did not. (That must be seating the full delegation, not 50% as everyone is saying.)

Obama now has 1957 delegates. Say they allow 105, give Clinton 60 and O 45 of those. Obama then has 2002 but needs 2130 to win, or 128. With 86 yet to be decided he'll pick up 35-40 there so he'll need 80 or so of the super delegates with only 212 undecided. Can he do it?

Will he still be ahead in pledged delegates if they give FL and MI 50% with some division for C and O?

Following includes the estimated 29 delegates Obama is winning in Oregon.

Obama Has ... Total to Win ... Difference ... % of Remaining ... Description
1677 ... 1626.5 ... (-50.5) ... (-59%) ... FL/MI get zero delegate votes
1710 ... 1704.75 ... (-5.25) ... (-6%) ... FL/MI delegates get half a vote each
1744 ... 1783 ... 39 ... 45% ... FL/MI delegates get a full vote

If they do give FL and MI delegates half a vote (it is half a vote for each delegate; not half the number of delegates) then Obama already has a majority. Otherwise he would have to win 39 of the remaining 86 elected delegates, or 45%. Since Obama is expected to win two of the remaining three by wide margins, for the sake of this election it wouldn't matter if they gave Florida and Michigan a full vote.

Also, all of the above assumes Obama gets ZERO in Michigan and ZERO from Edwards. With only half the Edwards and Michigan uncommitted delegates, Obama would be well past the majority in all cases.

I can think of an alternate punishment for Florida and Michigan. If they don't want their votes halved this election, then make them hold their presidential primaries in July in all future elections!

And as for elected delegates changing their vote they would have to keep this decision a secret because the candidate can switch any of his/her delegates anytime he/she chooses prior to the convention.

About 98% of the delegates elected as uncommitted delegates are til-death-do-us-part Obama supporters.

Julie

I have a feeling that the Superdelegates who were waiting for this to all be decided will now start flooding in for Obama.

she seemed to be winding this thing up until that speech. It made no sense.

I do think they will wait until the 31st to see what the party does about seating FL and MI

If Pelosi joins Obama today it will mean a flood of supers to Obama.

HILLARY WILL BE THE NOMINEE!!11A1A1111111!!! IT DOESN'T MATTER IF WE HAVE TO CLONE ALL THE OLD RACISTS IN WEST VIRGINIA AND KENTUCKY AND MOVE THEIR CLONES TO PUERTO RICO, OR IF WE HAVE TO BRING IN ALL THE HILLARY VOTERS FROM ALL THE ONLY STATES THAT COUNT IN A PARALLEL UNIVERSE, OR IF WE HAVE TO GO BACK IN TIME AND REPROGRAM THE DIEBOLD MACHINES IN OHIO AND TRANSLYVANIA FOR A 300% HILLARY WIN, SHE WILL BE THE NOMINEE!!!!11!!!1

YES SHE WILL!!1111!!!

SIEG HILL!!

After the first round of voting in Denver, pledged delegates begin to lose their meaning.

"A brokered convention refers to a situation in United States politics in which there are not enough delegates obtained during the presidential primary and caucus process for a single candidate to obtain a majority in the first round of voting of the presidential nominating convention. Once the first ballot has been held, and no candidate has a majority of delegate votes, the convention is then considered brokered, and the nomination is decided through political horse-trading and further ballots."

She has deluded herself that she is actually popular and that all women want her to be president and that she is actually fighting for every vote and for every blue collar worker LOL. She is out for herself and she is out to ruin Obama's chances and the Democrat party in the process. She needs a good swift kick in the a**. She is nothing but bad news.