1st line will be Obama-Mccain. 2nd line will be Clinton-Mccain
CO
Obama: +6
Mccain: +3
FL
Mccain +10
Clinton +6
Gerogia:
Mccain +10
No poll
Missouri:
Mccain +3
Clinton +2
North Carolina:
Mccain +8
Clinton +6
UT:
Mccain +35
Mccain +45
VA:
Mccain +8
Mccain +8
It's worth nothing that Obama's numbers will likely go up the further we get from the nomination, so it's important he becomes the official nominee soon. The Dem base will coalesce around Obama, and if there is one trend in all of these polls it's that the Dem base has not yet rallied behind him and Mccain is almost always pulling more Democratic support vs Obama than vs Hillary (while Obama pulls less Democratic support than Hillary). The fact Hillary pulls low-education voters and the fact Hillary voters are more likely than Obama voters to support Mccain if their candidate does not get the nomination are not unrelated, in my opinion.
Obama has two realistic ways to win the nomination as we currently stand:
For Obama, his electoral map is sharpening. He's presently winning all Kerry states except for New Hampshire, although he makes up for that with a safe-looking lead in Iowa. In order to win the election, he'll either need to:
1) Win Ohio (while holding Michigan and Wisconsin), or
2) Win two or three of the Western "four corner" states (NV, CO, NM) and either Ohio or Michigan.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/I personally believe option 2 is more likely. He currently leads in CO, NM, and Michigan. I don't see those leads dropping much. In fact, as I mentioned before, I see Obama's poll numbers going up as the party reunifies. Barring a major gaffe, I don't see anyway he doesn't win two out of three four corner states and Michigan.
Ohio is a tossup, although the RCP average only has Mccain +1. Obama should take the lead soon after Hillary drops out.
Either way, it's Obama's election to lose. Hillary currently polls better in many of the key states, but when you dive deeper into the numbers you can see it's because the Democratic base is rallied more behind her than Obama. If history is any indication, this will change. Obama typically does better among independents.
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