Superdelegates will decide this in a couple of weeks

. . . and, I really don't think any significant number of the pols who comprise the superdelegates will bull past the results of the primaries and discount the importance (and primacy) of the delegates allotted by the states.

It could happen, but I don't believe it will.

:-(

Are you feeling down?

If so...

:hug:

have already decided for Obama and are either on hold at the request of the Obama campaign or waiting until the last vote is cast. I also think we'll see Obama pick up another 30+ between now and the end of the month. One thing I do actually know is that the SDs, as a group, do not want to see this go to the convention.

I can't imagine there is some contingency of superdelegates which is waiting to mount some assault on the voters by substituting the state's allocation of delegates with their own biased interpretation of the voters' intentions.

initiate a floor fight at the convention. As she says "I never quit".

The superdelegates can (and likely will) make it clear that she'd lose that effort.

she can do that with 2-300 of her most loyal supporters and create a problem as a floor fight.

She has plenty of Geraldine Ferraro type supporters who are delegates and would be happy to do that.

despite your assertions and estimates

she says continually "I do not give up" and that she is considering taking the fight to the floor of the convention.


What I think has triggered this, quite frankly, is that the Obama campaign has made it clear that she is not going to be on the ticket and she is taking her pound of flesh on the way out.

She will not be successful - Michigan State Party has already accepted a sensible compromise that everyone but Hillary accepts and the Florida compromise will not be difficult to accept - unless she continues to pour kerosine on the fire.

And yes all of the above is conjecture without any source. But her change of tone after two weeks of conciliatory tactics seems to have been brought on by something.

that's precisely what she's aiming to do.

Everytime someone says she'll do "what's rational" she shows that she doesn't calculate "rational" the way others do, but strictly in terms of what she needs to do to win. Paraphrasing Rachel Maddow, at this point the only hope for her to win is to take it to the convention (tho' her chance there is vanishingly small - on the level of divine intervention) and everything she and her surrogates say confirms and amplifies the fact that she intends to do just that. So it's best for those who care about the Dem's chance of winning the GE to take her at her word about this, and act accordingly.

or loyal to party over personal fortune for the last two months. I no longer think she has any capacity to bow out gracefully and will instead, even without any support, head straight to Denver after the last primary, and after SD commitments have clearly put Obama over the top by any calculation including awarding all the Florida and Michigan delegates to Clinton. She is stuck inside some idee fixe narrative inside her inner circle, and perhaps just inside her own head where this all makes sense. Outside of possibly acting as a spoiler for 2008 and thus enabling a Clinton in 2012 campaign, continuing makes no rational sense and has no realistic prospect of success.

And I am glad you are back to discussing ideas and events.

Nothing she's said so far indicates otherwise.

inconvenient

To be fair to Clinton, if this goes to the convention it will be the superdelegates fault for not making a decision before August.

they can close this down anytime they want. It wouldn't matter what argument she might make.

Obama will declare victory with the help of most delegates and most super delegates Tuesday night..

And she will drop out Wed or Thursday..

Webb had an interview today where he said he didn't think there really are any undecided SD's, just those who won't declare for one reason or another - their constituency is on the fence, or they don't want to step into the fray until their decision doesn't really "count".

I hope all of this works out well. I don't think McCain stands a chance in November, and we won't have to deal with incompetence for the next four years. And I hope Hillary keeps all of her good assets and opportunities for the future intact.