Thursday **Obama magic number 61** (5 FL/MI Scenarios)

1) The current magic number for Obama to secure the nomination is 61 delegates.



2) Demconwatch has 5 likely scenarios for resolution of FL/MI
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html

a) Enforce current rules - Obama magic number is 61 and there are 301 delegates left (Obama needs 20%)

b) FL gets 1/2 vote MI Party compromise is accepted Obama's magic number is 91 with 331 delegates left (Obama needs 27%)

c) FL and MI get 1/2 each: Obama's magic number is 115 with 344 delegates left (Obama's need 33%)

d) FL/MI get 1/2 each and Supers get full: Obama's magic number is 124 with 359 delegates left (Obama needs 35%)

e) Give Clinton what she wants Obama gets nothing from Michigan: Obama's magic number is 168 with 386 delegates left (Obama needs 44%)

The other two are too extreme. Rumor has it that there is going to be a deal offered before the committee meets and if Clinton doesn't take it, the superdelegates are going to come down on her like a ton of bricks on Jun 3rd.

and everyone but Hillary has accepted it.

Florida they may just give a compromise number in order to settle it.

Andrew Sullivan has this up on his blog today:

Florida and Michigan

Andrew Sullivan 21 May 2008



Axelrod is getting ready to pull the rug right out from under Hillary Clinton.

even with Michigan? Maybe she and her people don't realize it. I mean your numbers prove that she can't win. Maybe she needs to know this.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/HELP/CONTACT/

and if she can't she won't press to count them in that way.