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No matter what she says, the chances of her taking it to the convention, are infinitesimally small

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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 04:41 AM
Original message
No matter what she says, the chances of her taking it to the convention, are infinitesimally small
It's a stock line. It keeps supporters on board when they might me tempted to peel off because it looks hopeless. It fits with her supposed fighter character. JE said it days before he dropped out. For a dozen or so reasons it's unlikely.

BUT

Having said that, let me repeat what I've said before: If Hillary takes it to the convention:

GIVE HER THE FUCKING USELESS NOMINATION. LET HER HAVE HER PRIZE.

She'll lose in November. Hugely.

She'll destroy the Clinton legacy and the Clinton brand.

I don't hate Hillary Clinton.... yet. If she keeps this going to the convention, I'll find myself fighting off that emotion. If she throws a fit about the RBC ruling because Obama gets delegates out of MI, I'll have to fight off that emotion. If she keeps it going despite Obama having enough delegates to make him the presumptive nominee, well..

I believe that off stage, Obama has been assured by insiders and lots of SDs that he has this wrapped up. He's certainly acting that way, and comments from Pelosi, Dean and others seem to confirm that. So what is Hillary doing? I haven't a clue.
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 04:53 AM
Response to Original message
1. HC does not care about any party other than the Hillary Party
It's all about Hillary.

Everything else that she says she cares about is only a Bosnia smokes screen.

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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 04:58 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I don't pretend to know what goes on in her head but
I do know that a contentious convention in August is democratic poison in November.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
3. The chances are currently about 46.4%
Edited on Thu May-22-08 07:08 AM by IWantAnyDem
There are 28 members and 2 co-chairs on the Rules and Bylaws Commmittee. The co-chairs are undeclared and only cast votes in the event of a tie.

Of the other 28, 7 are undeclared, 8 have declared for Obama, and 13 have declared for Clinton.

Clinton is trying to get the MI and FL delegates seated as-is with full votes. Currently, she has the vast majority of the uncommitted delegates through back channel manipulation.

If she can scrape up 2 votes on the R&BC, she will be in striking distance of the nomination and will take it to the convention.

13 is 46.4% of 28.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 07:19 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. no. those aren't the chances. If the RBC hadn't decided in a way
that changes nothing, the DNC and the Obama campaign would not be working on a transition to put his people in place there. Period.
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 07:46 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. The R&BC has made no decision yet.
What Howard Dean adn Barack Obama are doing has little to do with the R&BC.

I beleive some assumptions have been made, but nothing is concrete on this one until the decision comes down.
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H2O Man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 07:11 AM
Response to Original message
4. There is a near zero chance
that Senator Clinton will pursue the nomination up to the convention. Of her top advisers, there are only a couple who are advocating that she continue after June 3. The party elders have made clear that they will not allow it. Pressure has increased in the past 24 hours for Al Gore to step up to the plate and address the nonsense that what is happening today is anything like what happened to him in 2000. And even some of her strongest supporters in the party's leadership are telling her in private that they can't support her taking it past the first week in June.
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Jersey Devil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
5. The political makeup of the comm doesn't matter. They can't give her what she wants
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livingmadness Donating Member (347 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 07:15 AM
Response to Original message
6. Even the posts of her supporters here confirm it.
After all, if they believed she had a real chance of being the nominee, they'd have to consider how to get disillusioned Obama supporters onside. That some (not all) are as virulent as ever, sows how little faith remains IMO. Just disappointment for many, and fury for some.

Roll on November.
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Window Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 07:54 AM
Response to Original message
9. As smart as Hillary is supposed to be, I don't think even she has a clue as to what in hell she's
doing at this point in the game. Other than being a spoiler, she has nothing and has taken this "tough, ballsy woman" business a little too seriously.
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Cheap_Trick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
10. If there wasn't so much at stake here
I'd gladly sit back, let her have the nomination and watch the ensuing blood bath. But we need to retake the White House in November, and we need the best person for the job at the helm. Hillary is proving time and again that although she may have more "experience", she doesn't have the temperament . She's acting more and more petulant, like a female version of bush. This country needs to get off of the bush/clinton/bush treadmill. We need a fresh, new direction.
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