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I was thinking today about what the foreign policy priorities for the Obama Administration ought to be. Here is the off-the-top-of-my-head list:
• Engage Iran. We need to have direct talks that are aimed at showing Iran that we don’t have hostile intentions, but are prepared to react if they act militarily outside their borders. We should show Iran the benefits of playing ball with us, while being willing to totally isolate them if they don’t. • Engage Russia and China on arms control and security. Those two countries have a lot to gain from avoiding an arms race with us. And we have a lot to gain from avoiding an arms race with them. And, to the extent that we can work together against terrorism and rogue states, we should pursue that. • Improve cultural and scientific ties with China and Russia. Exposing their young people and intellectuals to the Western way of doing things can only help us. • Withdraw troops from Europe, except for a token presence to facilitate coordination with NATO. Western Europe has a huge economy now; it can defend itself. • Ditto for Japan. But, in that case, we’d want to move more slowly so that Japan could build up to counter China. We’d also probably want to improve and expand our facilities in Guam and Hawaii, in order to send a message to China that we aren’t ceding control of Asia to them. • Get out of Iraq. Doing it right could take 18-24 months. But we should get started. We cannot baby-sit that country forever – and the cost is too great, in comparison to any potential benefit. • Look seriously at a troop surge in Afghanistan. Obama should sit down with the generals and ask: “What could you realistically accomplish if the effort in Afghanistan were not starved for resources?” • Improve border security. I doubt that a big fence will be that effective. But, the cost would not be that great, so we might as well do it. Meanwhile, we should get engaged with Mexico and lean on them to reform. There are loads of penalties and rewards we could use. We should make Mexico a priority.
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