Sit FL and MI delegates - Hillary still loses by 63

According to the CNN website

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

O Pledged 1658 Super 307 Total 1965
H Pledged 1500 Super 279 Total 1779

If you add Florida

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL

H gets 106 O gets 70 (assume Edwards is not counted)
106 = .50 X 211
70 = .33 X 211

If you add Michigan

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MI

H gets 86 O get 0
86 = 0.55 X 157

Adding these to the current totals:

O Pledged 1728 Super 307 Total 2035
H Pledged 1693 Super 279 Total 1972

H still loses.

Am I missing something?

They hold the key to this whole thing.

How many of Obama's SDs have switched to Clinton? Why has he picked up so many more endorsements as the campaign goes on? Why would anyone think they're going to go Clinton's way?

What are they waiting for?

they pile on and come out in support of Obama now with only 2-weeks left and it looks like "the boys club" is trying to put the woman back in the kitchen, thus dividing the party in a hard way that will make it difficult for Obama to heal...i was predicting this way back. It is best for them to wait until June 4th before coming out (and lets not forget the May 31st thing).

They are politicians who are being prudent.

Many of the supers remaining are people like Nancy and Harry Reid, and Jimmy Carter who already have a candidate preference but refrain from making a public endorsement because they need to appear impartial or they don't want to damage their relationships with the candidate they plan to vote against. Some of them have hinted at their preference: For example, the Clinton campaign has said it believes Pelosi is privately an Obama supporter and Carter has hinted that he is an Obama supporter, but neither of them will endorse until all the primaries are over and we know what the final numbers look like, and settle the question of Florida and Michigan. Then most of them will probably just endorse whoever happens to be the winner at that point.

Remember that George Bush didn't endorse McCain until he mathematically clinched the nomination even though it was obvious for weeks before that, that McCain would be the nominee. I don't believe Bush nominated McCain because that's who he supports. He just endorsed the winner.

There are 180 remaining unpledged Supers out of 766 total.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/index.html


If FL and MI are seated as I mentioned before there would be a total of 4187 total delegates or 2094 for nomination. Obama would need 33% or 59 of SDs to win in the case that FL and MI are seated in the way I described.

I thought the 766 number did not include the supers from FL and MI

I've seen the number 797 which might be the difference (31 supers for MI and FL)

But I have REAL trouble seating FL and MI without consequence.

Then how will we ever enforce the rules in the future?

We'll start having primaries in the summer of 2011 or even 2010. Hell, we could be holding primaries right after the inaguration.

And of course, New Hampshire will be first. (It's in their constitution).

I wouldn't mind a wholesale rewrite of the rules, something that gives states other than Iowa and NH such a big voice in picking the prez. But this year we need to stick to the rules.

And how delegates aren't REALLY democratic.

Because that will be her mantra.

How can she say that Michigan voters who voted uncommitted cannot be counted because they were told to vote like that if they supported Obama or Edwards?

Is that not Zimbabwe-like?

The Michigan and Florida Democratic Leadership wanted to cheat. The only way to seat the delegates fairly is to summarily fire and replace all those that thought it was a good idea to disenfranchise their voters in their states by breaking the rules.

If they pay some sort of fine as well, perhaps then they could get seated. Otherwise, it's set a precedent later that states can do whatever they want...

PB

It's lost to us this year in November.

Not MI though. We still have a chance of winning Michigan in November. I'm not ready to toss them under the bus yet an disenfranchise all the voters who didn't vote for Hillary.

goes up to 2209. It does not remain at 2025.

because the last thing they want is a non-presumptive leading up to the convention...they will have picked their "offical" nominee on June 4th and their is nothing Hillary can do

They can not expect anything more than 1/2 delegates.