Clinton Touting Popular Vote Projections

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/23/clinton-touting-popular-vote-projections/

With her expected big win in Puerto Rico on June 1, a collection of votes could give her the popular vote lead without including the disputed results from Michigan and Florida. The Clinton campaign is circulating an opinion article from the Philadelphia Inquirer, which analyzes the vote possibilities. It buttresses the heart of her new argument to the superdelegates — that if she wins the popular vote across the whole country, how can they overturn the will of the people?
From the Inquirer’s analysis:

Real Clear Politics keeps track of six versions of the popular-vote total. They are, in ascending order of inclusivity: (1) the popular vote of sanctioned contests; (2) the total of sanctioned contests, plus estimated votes from the Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington caucuses; (3) the popular vote plus Florida; (4) popular vote plus Florida and the caucuses; (5) the popular vote plus Florida and Michigan; (6) popular vote plus Florida, Michigan, and the caucus estimates. After Tuesday, Clinton now leads in two of these six counts.

If you believe that the most important precept in democratic politics is to “count every vote,” then the sixth category is the most inclusive, and here Clinton leads Obama by 71,301 votes. Of course, this includes the Michigan result, where Sen. Obama had removed his name from the ballot. So while it may be the most inclusive, it may not be the most fair.

The third and fourth counts - the ones which include Florida - seem more fair. Here, Obama is clinging to a slight lead of 146,786 votes (257,008, with the caucus estimates). However, with Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota remaining, he will almost certainly finish behind her in these counts, likely by a few hundred thousand votes.
But could Clinton take over the lead in all of the popular-vote tabulations? Quite possibly. In Puerto Rico’s last major election, two million people voted. Let’s assume that turnout for this historic vote - Puerto Rico has never had a presidential primary before - will be equal to or greater than that turnout.

If Clinton were to win Puerto Rico by 20 points she would pick up at least a 400,000-vote margin. This would allow her to swamp Obama in the popular-vote counts, which include Florida, making her the leader in four of the six permutations of the popular vote. At that point, Obama would be left clinging to the least-inclusive count, which he now leads by 441,558 votes (551,780, including caucuses).

Her popular vote argument isn't winning over any Superdelegates, so she can tout it all she wants. More sad than anything.

That won't work.

I'm so TIRED of the Clintons' BS!

:silly:

If not, why not?

I mean, they will actually be voting in the general election unlike the citizens of Puerto Rico.

and unless she's trying to win a game of horeshoes here, 'close enough' doesn't count.

Iowa had around 239,000 people participate in the caucuses. Since there is no 'hard count' of the first alignment we'll never know how many stood for Clinton in the first round compared to how many moved from a non-viable candidate to Clinton in the second alignment (or moved away from Clinton to a different candidate). Which 'vote' should count? the first alignment or the final one? And since there is no record, how will we ever know?

However, the argument doesn't mean a thing in a process that uses delegate count as the ultimate determiner. And Clinton is aware and has been aware of that since 1991 (if not sooner).

It is completely absurd to even discuss "the popular vote" if you can't include the caucus states.

in PR, how does anyone know Clinton would even win, much less by 20 points?

That's gonna be embarrassing for her when she finds out! :D

:rofl:

:scared:

Bill Clinton played by the rules and gained the nomination AND the Presidency WITHOUT a majority of the popular vote. Where were the complaints then???

Where the FUCK were Bill and Hill when Gore won the majority of the popular vote???

The nomination is decided by delegates, not popular vote. And even if it were, Hillary's vote counting scheme is fundamentally flawed, counting rogue states like FL and MI while ignoring the caucus states.

Once more we see Hillary trying to change the rules, move the goalposts. She is willing to do anything and everything in order to satisfy her ambition, including sacrificing the party, the country and the rest of the world.

How did Hillary count caucus states?

322,954 votes cast for Kerry in 2004 in Montana and South Dakota

Obama makes up a popular vote deficit with a 44 point win in those states.

Also, I wonder why all 2 million Puerto Rican voters are voting in the Democratic primary? Are there no Republicans on that island? If that's true, I should move there.

but it was all well and good when they were voting for Obama...:P

but who can know the heart of a Republican?


Heck, who can even find it? :o

...I am fucking sick and tired of hearing about this supposed "metric"...

IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER!!!

Although metrics without counting caucuses are disenfranchising.

How about grace and toughness under pressure? I prefer Obama's two speeches about Wright, and the gas tax opposition more presidential and defining. How about Hillary having a different persona for each primary, with the kitchen sink thrown in.

Primaries are about showing many aspects of leadership, organization, and facing crises. With many weeks of constant pounding about bittergate, pastorgate and naftagate, voters still wanted Obama and the promise of an Obama.

Certainly more important than the popular vote based on name recognition in many cases. What about Hillary's votes not voting for her but her husband.

Let's hope the continuing display of her lack of grace under defeat changes some minds of women voting for her-just as a woman-and not the superior candidate. A once in a lifetime mix of skills and likability.

six months into the future says she can get more electoral votes and she can win all the swinging red states. You gotta give her props for creativity. It would all be laughable if it weren't so tragic.

Leave it to Hillary to exclude caucus states that WILL vote and puff up her total with a territory that will not.