Clinton appears to have miscalculated this week. Since the Oregon and Kentucky primaries, she has ratcheted up her rhetoric, linking Michigan and Florida to the disputed election in Zimbabwe, slavery and the Constitution. Knowledgeable Democrats say such talk has played badly with the very people Clinton needs most right now, superdelegates and members of the rules committee.
The Clinton campaign's proposal (seating 100 MI & FL as is) has almost no prospect of prevailing. Having sanctioned Florida and Michigan earlier, the committee members appear unwilling to approve a solution that could be seen as now letting the states off without some punishment.
Roosevelt said one of the principles of any likely resolution is that "the rules have to be honored, not only because they have the force of law, but also because if they are not honored we will have primaries in 2011 and total chaos in 2012."
Don Fowler, a former DNC chairman and a current member of the rules committee, offered a similar assessment. "As much as I disagree with what the Rules and Bylaws Committee did -- at least the harshness and timing -- even I would assert that there has to be some kind of retribution, some kind of sanction," he said.
Fowler's views hold weight not just because of his past role as party chairman but also because he has endorsed Clinton for president and is sympathetic to her position. As he put it, "I would be inclined to support what the campaign wanted, but there are limitations."Obama campaign officials have said they are willing to compromise. Chief strategist David Axelrod told National Public Radio the Obama campaign is "willing to go more than halfway" and give up more delegates than the rules might otherwise dictate. "The question is, is Senator Clinton's campaign willing to do the same?"
But so far the most the campaign has done is embrace a proposal from Michigan Democratic leaders that is more generous to Clinton that the Obama campaign's initial proposal to award each candidate half the delegates, but less generous that would be the case of the primary results dictated the allocation.
Throughout the long dispute over Michigan and Florida, Obama and his advisers have demonstrated their willingness to play hardball politics. When there was growing pressure to conduct a new election in Michigan, the Obama campaign held firm in its resistance. Eventually legislation for a makeover primary collapsed, dealing another blow to Clinton's hopes of winning the nomination.
Now the Obama campaign is just as resistant to a compromise in Michigan that would not directly award him any delegates. And because his team believes Clinton's standing is rapidly being eroded by her rhetoric, they seem to have less incentive to move in her direction.
But this is more than a test of wills in the final hours of the long nomination fight. Obama already is looking to the general election. A smooth convention and relatively harmonious relations with the Clintons and their campaign are clearly in his interest.
Obama's core message is the politics of change and the politics of unity, not a continuation of the hard-line tactics that Republicans and Democrats have embraced in Washington. Practical politics dictate that he help find a solution that also does nothing to diminish the Democrats' chances of carrying either of the two states.
For Obama, all that points in the direction of being in the forefront of finding a solution, not being a bystander who, in the end, simply accepts what the committee decides. Although he is not yet the Democratic nominee, he could enhance his position as the putative leader of the party by starting to act like it in this fight.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/23/a_leadership_opportunity_for_o.html