Per Obama Camp: Under 50 SDs to go...

Depending on whose math you use, it could be up to a few more than 50. In any case, I think this is a psychologically significant number, particularly with Hillary about (again, depending on the count you use) 200 delegates behind this.

I wonder whether being in the "red zone" to the nomination will have the effect of eroding those superdelegates who are still reluctant to commit.

If they don't get on board soon, their votes will not be considered helpful by the Obama folks. As politicians, I would think they'd want to be considered a strategic ally of the winning team.

Do you think this number will start a waterfall effect in the final week before the last primaries and Saturday's DNC meeting to determine the status of Michigan and Florida?

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http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-delegate-math/

COUNTDOWN TO THE NOMINATION: 49 delegates to go.

Including the 2 additional Edwards delegates who are now pledged to Obama, the 3 superdelegates whose support we received in Hawaii (Hawaii Democratic Party Chair: Brian Schatz, Vice Chair: Kari Luna and unpledged Add-On: James Burns), the 3 superdelegates whose support we received on Saturday (former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles, Georgia State Party Secretary Stephen Leeds and Wyoming state Rep. W. Patrick Goggles.) and the 3 superdelegates who announced their support on Friday (Oregon superdelegate Jenny Greenleaf, Congressman Jim Costa and Dennis Cardoza); Obama is now just 49 delegates away from securing the nomination.

The Math

Total Pledged Delegates: 3,253

Pledged Delegates needed for majority: 1,627

Total delegates needed for nomination: 2026

Edwards pledged delegates now supporting Obama: 11

Obama Pledged Delegates: 1,648.5 (21.5 more than needed for the majority)

Obama Superdelegates: 317.5

Obama Total Delegates: 1,977

Number of delegates Obama needs to secure the nomination: 49

through pledged and super delegates.

...this coming week, before any more primaries would give him a chance to gain delegates and before the DNC meeting on Saturday.

It would require a big break among the superdelegates to put him over the top by Saturday, but I'm thinking this proximity to the final number might shake some loose... And, the closer he gets, the harder the shaking will be, as SDs realize they might miss the bus if they wait.

Good job.

who will fall for the race baiting sexist campaign and also be willing to be bought out.

That covers your tripe doesn't it?

So is an uphill and ultimately losing battle in the GE.


Obama's campaign has consciously made these choices in their campaign strategy. They alone have to deal with it.

while when the campaign started Hillary flat lined.





you actually need to get out of all those pro Hillary sites and actually read a little bit.

I found this at a pro hillary site

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/012574.php

He has been for Hillary the whole time - an early and enthusiastic endorser.

But now he is for Obama and he says that one of the reasons is electability

Voters know what they want and they prefer Clinton over Obama vs McCain.

Obama would have been the nominee for a week now.

We're being railroaded by Hillary/McCain Dems--but once she drops out and drops out graciously, those numbers will change.

Just go away :rofl:

BTW "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow."

But we will watch the Obama folks screw up the election and pick up the pieces afterwards.

By trying to validate every fear or talking point the right wing could come up with. Stuff that normally we would just ignore, has been falsely validated from within our own party. Gee, hillary is our own new Lieberman.

... lashing out @ everybody & everything this can't be healthy for you.

Go for hike .... do something but trying to be nasty to people here @
D.U. is really a dead end. I hope you find peace.

As for me this will be the last time i will ever respond to you.
Good Bye

If we lose, we lose. Dems have done it many times before. As I've said, I'll be ok. I'm not in the category of people who get hurt by repressive GOP administrations.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

"If we lose, we lose. Dems have done it many times before. As I've said, I'll be ok. I'm not in the category of people who get hurt by repressive GOP administrations."

:(

or Stormfront.com or
Lucianne.com?

I think most of us here will be tryng our best to defeat Mccain...

People who want to defeat Obama, will have to link up with republicans or maybe Bob Barr

and your candidate will lose to McCain if he gets the nom, because his campaign and supporters have been such a negative, destructive and divisive force within the party.

You really don't expect fellow Dems to vote for your candidate after you've called them racists, pigs, a**holes, liars, etc.

Its obvious from your scorched earth tactics, the most destructive members and supporters of Obama's campaign have never worked for a winning presidential campaign before. And they won't be this year either.

but if the other "shoes" fit..well, I may have called them that:)

Division started with Clinton's cadre, and Obama has shrugged it off & continued winning.. I know that's got to irritate the hell out of Clinton's peole, but it just is what it is..

She was ahead, she ran a shitty campaign and she lost..
the ONLY thing different about her campaign, is that she decided to stalk instead of suspend..and if her helpers want to keep loaning her money to schlep all over the place throwing shit at the candidate, that's her (and their ) choice.. He's moved on..so have we :)

but forget about getting Bill Clinton's support. You hate him so much, why would you want his help?

Hopefully you can all go create your own Obama worshipping party elsewhere - some place where people worship candidates and ignore the issues.

Hillary Clinton can "beat" John McCain, but she can't beat Barack Obama... so she should be the Nominee? Man, why even have primaries? We should just POLL who can beat the Republicans and make them our Nominee, right? I mean, it seems to be the most logical of things to do. It's not like the election isn't 5 months away or anything. Heck, lets just make Hillary our President now since she's beating McCain in polls. That sounds fair and American to me too.

This sort of post doesn't do much to further the cause of the democratic party you mention in your screen name -- nor does it help Hillary to be seen in a better light.

Am I misreading your post? Is it really "Hillary or nobody" for you?

and as a result it appears likely that he will be the nominee. If you and the other supporters of Senator Clinton had done a better job, perphas she would be the likely nominee.

But, you didn't, did you?

You sort of blew it, didn't you?

You just couldn't hack it, could you?

Or, did you? Maybe you did the best job you could and the electorate and the Democratic Party weren't convinced, and they preferred Senator Obama. I understand that you're unhappy about that, but please stop trying to make the rest of the world unhappy with you; we're busy trying to continue to do a good job until we elect the guy we like.

We could use your help, when you're through being unhappy.

That will set up guaranteed clinch on Junes 3rd.

meaning that it could take more delegates than that

and since popular vote is a NO DEAL, the few thousand extra Mzzhillie "may" have will be inconsequential, since the candidate will already have been selected..

She can have a mainstreet, victory parade in Pyrrhicville

They may seat some of the delegates, but I don't think they will leave any Uncommitted. In other words, there won't be a greater number "in play". And I doubt they will give superdelegates from FL/MI a seat, and will probably give only partial credit on the Pledged.

The number to clinch might be higher than 2026, but I doubt will be 2209.

I think Obama has plenty of Supers waiting to tip it, no matter what the final clinch number, and will do it on June 3rd.

This give HRC about 30.

Now he would still have it locked up, I'm just saying it could delay his victory

on friday we started @ 63 or 65 away .... now @ 49 :bounce:

It will go up. It would behove Obama to wait until we all know what the final number will be until declaring himself the winner. I agree that is WILL BE the winner, but until we all know exactly how many delegates are needed, I hope he doesn't declare too soon and then find out he needs more delegates to have a majority. Since the Puerto Rico election isn't until the day after the DNC Rules Committee meeting, the timing might be good.

I think that, if Obama makes it to 2026 before Michigan and Florida are seated, he will have to be very careful about how and when he goes about declaring victory.

He's been pretty careful so far. I think he'll be doubly careful about this. He knows it would be bad to offend women, Michigan voters, and especially Florida voters.

I suspect the strongest language he'd use would be to call it "a clear indication of the inevitable result."

You can count on that.

And he'll more than make up for the additional delegates he'll need in the coming week.

and no superdelegates, then Obama will need 101 delegates and Clinton will need 240 (out of 341) to win the majority.

In that scenario, the total delegates needed will be 4233; a majority would be 2117. Obama current has 1976, he picks up half of what he won in FL (37) and half of what he won in MI (3) giving him 2016, so he would need 101. Hillary currently has 1776, she would pick up half of what she won in FL (57) and half of what she won in MI (40) giving her 1876, so she would need 240. Those "needed" counts encompass both the delegates from the final 3 elections, the uncommitted pledged delegates (including the ones from MI), the 7 remaining Edwards delegates and the remaining super-delegates (except FL & MI which wouldn't get any).


I hope we know sometime on Saturday what the actual counts are. All this speculation and playing with different scenarios is mind-boggling.

MI will not go the way anybody thinks it will because the DNC directly requested candidated not campaign or participate. Obma chose not to participate. He will not be punished for following the rules.

End of the day, Obama will need about an additional 10-30 delegates to win.

Also, I doubt we'll have an answer on May 31. They may wait for four days to let the rest of the contests play out.

I guess there were some write-in votes for Obama because he actually won about 5 delegates, so I halved that and gave him 3. It's sort of a "if we go by the rules but discount the delegate count by half instead of completely). It's only 1 of a number of possibilities and certainly isn't the best-case scenario for Obama. My "needed" numbers of course will be reduced by whatever delegates will be awarded from the last 3 contests.

You're right, it doesn't take into account some other apportionment that they could come up with for MI. Time will tell, so we'll see in the next week or 10 days how it shakes out.