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When was the last time a candidate for nomination trailed her opponent in her home state?

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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:45 PM
Original message
When was the last time a candidate for nomination trailed her opponent in her home state?

All of these comparisons of the GE are so tiresome. The fact is the actually have a campaign for a reason.

Eight months ago Hillary was at 45% and now she is at 42% and for polling that is about a flat line as you can get.

The only conclusion is that she is a terrible campaigner and that in a GE campaign she would not do well.

The more she campaigns the flatter she is. The more Obama campaigns the higher his numbers go




Now look at this amazing statistic. In NY Obama now holds a bigger lead against McCain than Hillary.

When was the last time somebody was considered a serious candidate when they were second in the polls in their own home state?







BTW in Illinois - Obama's home state and Hillary's birth state, Obama 60 McCain 31 Clinton 50 McCain 37
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:49 PM
Response to Original message
1. Thanks, Grant. This is something I've never understood. To say that
"Obama can't win X state because Hillary won it in a primary" is beyond the pale of ludicrous !

We're talking about Dem v Dem, for goodness sakes.

And polling this far out means NOTHING when we don't even (officially) have a nominee that is agreed upon by the party. Certainly not when there is a scorched earth campaign being waged against him from two sides.

So thank you.. I'm sick of seeing it, but it's all they got.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. well its so infantile we shouldn't even have to address it.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. Low information..or low
something.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 08:17 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. how low can they go/
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 08:23 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I guess we're gonna
find out.
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roguevalley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #10
20. Ed Rendell said Obama would get Pennsylvania in the GE. The
idea that they can vote dem only once (in the primary) and not after that is ridiculous. McCain has parts falling off his campaign. I bet I could get Pennsylvania this time around.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #20
32. Yeah, Obama's gonna need a few days of
RnR and then he can barnstorm all 57 statesB-) and the Dems will love being told the truth.
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izquierdista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:56 PM
Response to Original message
3. Which home state is that?
IL? NY? AR? PA? any others?
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K Gardner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:57 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Puerto Rico..? Zimbabwe ?
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 08:07 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. Bosnia
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:05 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. I think she said something about being in Texas going door to door
and shit. Appears she met everyone who lived there during this time, 35 years ago.
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IndyOp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. She went door to door for George McGovern, the anti-war candidate,
Hillary and Bill went door-to-door for McGovern in Texas because none of his other supporters had the guts to go down there and try.

I support Obama. I do not support ripping anything & everything Hillary Clinton has ever done.

:(
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ekwhite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #14
43. Good point Indy
Hillary and Bill Clinton have done a lot of good for our country, although it is hard to remember that in this primary season.
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PM7nj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 08:03 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. I think she lived in CA for a while as well. nt
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roguevalley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:44 PM
Response to Reply #7
21. she worked in Alaska doing herring I believe but we still went
77% for Obama.
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Window Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:59 PM
Response to Original message
5. K/R. Thanks Grant.
:kick:
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Oleladylib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 08:59 PM
Response to Original message
11. NewYork is behind Hillary..make no mistake about it..poll if you will...
McCain has a huge support base in Northern, Central and Western NY...Hillary has the capital district and NYC...Don't know who they poll..but it certainly goes to show the limitations of said polling
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BklynChick Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:12 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. living in NYC, I know so many people (elected officials and regular folks) who have switched
Edited on Mon May-26-08 09:13 PM by BklynChick
allegiances and are now for Obama, many of whom say they won't even vote for her when she comes up for re-election inthe Senate, no matter who her opponent is.
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roguevalley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #15
22. I truly am interested in her next election there.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. One things for sure, Obama will get more than ZERO from Harlem in the GE
..He did not whine and demand a do-over after that did he??
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TahitiNut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:58 PM
Original message
I wonder how long it'll take Bill to move his offices out of Harlem.
:evilgrin:
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:55 PM
Response to Reply #11
28. well lets just put the polling aside for a minute - why is her campaign bankrupt?
They aren't aware where to go to punch their little credit cards in?
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:31 AM
Response to Reply #11
37. are you saying that yoru empiracle awarness is better than this polling?
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EmeraldCityGrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:03 PM
Response to Original message
12. Familiarity breeds contempt.
The more familiar people are with her representation, the least likely they are to support her.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:15 PM
Response to Original message
16. Has she ever surpassed her own negative ratings?
Edited on Mon May-26-08 09:16 PM by SoCalDem
she's usually in the high 40s negatives, and she's also about the same in positives.. She DEFINES polarization... not a good thing to have in a political candidate..
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Spider Jerusalem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Her negatives seem to have a floor of about 45%, and I don't think that they've gone down at all.
And considering that she's not JUST a polarising figure in general, but is one within her own party (even Mol;ly Ivins, before her untimely death, wrote that she'd support anyone but Hillary for the nomination), I'm not really sure why anyone can view her as 'more electable' than Obama; it just doesn't make any sense.
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samdogmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:45 PM
Response to Reply #18
25. I don't think it's "Democrats" talking when you hear the "more electable"
saga. It's Republicans who want her on the ticket because if that happens, McCain is a shoe-in!
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Nite Owl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:22 PM
Response to Original message
19. A lot of people I know were
Hillary supporters here until she did that only her and McCain could be good CIC's. That turned people off big time here. Not a lot of Hillary support left and those that do are fully aware that she can't win this.
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 09:51 PM
Response to Original message
23. Thanks, Grantcart - Where, exactly is she winning at this point, again??
This week? Today??

K&R
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:37 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. West Virginia still loves her
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samdogmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. Yeah--all those KKK members who voted for her in the primary....
but will support McCain in the General. Even if she got the nomination, they won't vote for her in the General--DOES ANY ONE GET THIS?
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #26
30. almost everybody does.
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samdogmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:25 AM
Response to Reply #30
35. You think?
Then why all this nonsense talk of "popular vote"? Like she doesn't realize that a. She hasn't won the popular vote; and b. much of the vote she's won is from right-wing wackos trying to throw a monkey wrench into our primaries. So either way she's "screwn" (sorry a freeper term I couldn't resist).
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PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:53 PM
Response to Original message
27. And how many polls in that data set show McCain winning NY against Obama?
And how my show McCain winning against Hillary?

Yeah. I thought so.
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
29. Trends, trends, trends. The trends tell it all. Many thanks.
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muryan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
31. I have a feeling you wont see any Hillary supporters post on this thread
theres not much to argue about, and they cant spout their regular bs in the face of this.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 11:31 PM
Response to Reply #31
33. no but I have it in my journal and when I find a stupid thread about
future GE I can just take it out and post it as a reply.
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 11:37 PM
Response to Original message
34. Could you be any more dishonest?
Actually, considering the source, I guess you possibly could.

Obama in NY: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=36
Obama: 49
McCain: 38


Clinton in NY: http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/polls.php?fips=36
Hillary: 52
McCain: 37



Your cherrypicked polls and graphs fool no one.
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Barrymores Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #34
36. STFU, doofus.
Nobody pays attention to your chumming bullshit.
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mkultra Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:32 AM
Response to Reply #34
38. didnt you just cherry pick too?
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Alexander Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #34
39. And who is our resident Shillbot pretending to support THIS week?
BTW, pollster.com is an aggregate of polls - in other words, the total opposite of cherry-picked.

Could you make yourself look any more idiotic?
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catcher Donating Member (45 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #39
40. I betting he's going to attempt
NJSecularist the resident laughingstock.
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ekwhite Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:04 AM
Response to Reply #34
42. Pollster.com is a pretty well trusted source
US Election Atlas, I've never heard of before. They appear to use a 3-poll rolling average, where Pollster.com appears to use a regression analysis. What I see from both metapolls is that EITHER candidate beats McCain in NY state.
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Douglas Carpenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 12:54 AM
Response to Original message
41. Personally I think all this talk about who is more electable is a bunch of nonsense
First of all, -- It's irrelevant now. Sen. Obama will be the Democratic Party nominee for President. All rational and honest people know that. I certainly have not come across one single credible and independent and nonpartisan expert who thinks otherwise.

Secondly, there is simply no consensus among independent polling and opinion monitors except that it is fair to say that had Sen. Clinton rather than Sen. Obama won the race - she would have also had a very good chance of defeating Sen. McCain also. But that's no longer a relevant issue.

Nonetheless, I did like your article. And does raise the point of just how ridiculous the pro-McCain/anti-Obama crowd really is.
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Gore1FL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:17 AM
Response to Original message
44. Yes we can
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