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Gallup 5/27: Obama widens lead over Clinton to 8%, but does 6% worse than HRC against McCain in GE

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highplainsdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:27 PM
Original message
Gallup 5/27: Obama widens lead over Clinton to 8%, but does 6% worse than HRC against McCain in GE
Edited on Tue May-27-08 01:29 PM by highplainsdem
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107491/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-Clinton-51-43.aspx

After a string of five days with a double-digit lead over Clinton last week, Obama has held slightly smaller advantages over Clinton -- ranging from five to eight points -- in the last four releases based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking. Since May 1-3 polling, Obama has held at least a small advantage over Clinton, and has held a statistically significant lead most of this month. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

Though Obama's nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate seems highly likely, Clinton actually is running better versus presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in general election trial heats among registered voters nationwide.

The latest update, based on May 21-25 Gallup Poll Daily tracking, shows Clinton with a 3-point advantage (48% to 45%) over McCain, while Obama trails McCain by the same 3-point margin (47% to 44%).

That net difference of six points in the gap (+3 for Clinton and -3 for Obama) is typical of what Gallup has observed in the last four releases, and rank among the largest net differences in either Democratic candidate's favor since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March.
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fascisthunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. I Don't Buy It
I don't buy that McCain is doing this well.... I really think polling is a political tool.
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BonnieJW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
22. I agree.
Every day there is another poll showing someone else ahead. It's like the weather.
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DevonRex Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. It's over sweetie. nt
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nichomachus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
3. Nonsense -- polls this far out aren't worth wiping your butt with
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MadBadger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:30 PM
Response to Original message
4. She's running against herself. Who is there to bloody her...except herself?
Edited on Tue May-27-08 01:36 PM by hnmnf
McCain and Obama attack each other everyday. McCain doesnt bother with her.
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Doctor_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. True. Obama has started to ignore her
If she would get on the team this farce could stop.
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DerekJ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:30 PM
Response to Original message
5. Primary HEATTTTT...many O supporters are willing to vote for Hillary, many Hillary supporters are
not (because they’re losing so they're bitter). It'll change later.
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jobycom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:34 PM
Response to Original message
6. That says something, but not much about the GE.
November will be a different world, anyway. What this poll may show is that a lot of Clinton supporters are bitter at Obama right now, and are saying they don't know how they'll vote in the GE if Obama wins. They aren't likely to vote for McCain in November, though.
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4_Legs_Good Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:38 PM
Response to Original message
8. Remember these 3 way races give people 2 chances to vote against Obama
you have three people voting here:

1. McCain fans
2. Obama fans
3. Clinton fans
3a. Clinton fans who when asked the Obama v. McCain question answer honestly (they'd vote for Obama)
3b. Clinton fans who when asked the Obama v. McCain question answer in a way to favor their first choice - McCain

Also, I'm on the Gallup panel and their latest internet survey asked the question:

Who would you support if the election was held today

A. John McCain
B. Barack Obama
C. Hillary Clinton
D. Other
E. Undecided

This is a 3 way race card, not a head to head.

David
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ColonelTom Donating Member (415 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. More accurately, Clinton voters may say they'd vote McCain over Obama
to make their own candidate look stronger in the GE, thus supporting her argument for the nomination. The poll can't unpack whether those people would really vote for McCain or Obama if/when Hillary is out of the picture entirely.

Obviously, the same applies to Obama supporters as well saying whether they'd support Clinton or McCain in a head-to-head, though I suspect there are fewer of them shading their answers to support their candidate's nomination (since Obama's not depending on that argument alone to sway superdelegates).
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4_Legs_Good Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #13
31. Exactly!
Further Obama supporters know he's already got the nomination sewn up, so there's no real reason to be deceptive. Sure if Hillary got the nomiation, I would vote for her over McCain. There's no benefit in me pretending I wouldn't as my candidate already has it.

David
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rurallib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:42 PM
Response to Original message
9. Don't forget Bob Barr!
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
10. Those are Hillary voters gaming the poll...
Everyone understands that.......but a few. It has been this way since Texas.





The data suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November's election. A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.

Clinton supporters appear to be somewhat more reactive than Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of the former indicate that if Clinton is not the nominee -- and Obama is -- they would support McCain. That compares to 19% of Obama supporters who would support McCain if Obama is not the nominee -- and Clinton is.

It is unknown how many Democrats would actually carry through and vote for a Republican next fall if their preferred candidate does not become the Democratic nominee.

The Democratic campaign is in the heat of battle at the moment, but by November, there will have been several months of attempts to build party unity around the eventual nominee -- and a focus on reasons why the Republican nominee needs to be defeated.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx...
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Higher Standard Donating Member (499 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. Poll flawed
The flaw lying in the fact that ones asking the question about voting for the primary opponent over the Republican in the GE don't take into account the high passions that exist for the primary candidates at this stage. There are a lot of people who seriusly believe it right at this moment when they say they'll vote for McCain over . However, once the primary race is over and there is a Democratic nominee, either Clinton or Obama, as the heat of the primary battle fades, many will come to the rational realization that they just cannot vote for McCain over a Democratic candidate whose stance on the issues are closer to those voters' own. That's not to say that some won't stick to their guns, but there's no way those numbers accurately reflect what will happen in the fall.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
11. and intrade shows Obama slaughtering McCain in the fall
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Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:56 PM
Response to Original message
14. "typical of the last 4 releases"
it's a 4 day rolling average, no?

oy.
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cbc5g Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
15. GE polls mean nothing right now
With Hillary still around
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Mike L Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 01:59 PM
Response to Original message
16. Obamorons wanted him, now they're stuck with him. em
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against all enemies Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Good news, we didn't want Hillary and we aren't stuck with her. Ha Ha
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Freddie Stubbs Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 02:07 PM
Response to Original message
17. I am much more interested in how he is polling against McCain in the swing states
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NJSecularist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #17
23. Obama is polling terribly in the swing states.
He's losing Florida and Ohio and he is only tied in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, Hillary leads decisively in all three states.
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NWHarkness Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 02:34 PM
Response to Original message
19. Outlier
No other polls are showing those sort of results.

And Gallup's reputation has been eroding for years. They haven't called a race accurately in a long, long time.
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PBS Poll-435 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. Actually, Rasmussen's daily poll has IDENTICAL results.
The cries of "Outlier" don't square.
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
20. He has the current EV lead, and that's what matters....
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VotesForWomen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 03:28 PM
Response to Reply #20
25. i highly doubt that; he loses a number of key, must-win states.
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Mike L Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 04:25 PM
Response to Reply #20
28. You can delete OH from your list. The last poll was invalid.
SurveyUSA overweighted Dems 2:1 over Repubs. McCain is up 2.5 points.
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VotesForWomen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 03:27 PM
Response to Original message
24. this mirrors what i'm seeing; the far left dem enthusiasm for O is not shared by the general public.
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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. I suggest taking off your blinders will help you see better........
As for the mirror, it's a maze that you are trapped in!

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Mike L Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. True. Obama is another Dukakis. em
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ErinBerin84 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 04:21 PM
Response to Original message
27. Chuck Todd was just on Hardball
and said that Bill Bradley, Edwards, and John McCain (in 2000) all started polling much better in the general election matchup polls than they had previously when the "end of their campaign was near", because no one was running a campaign against them anymore. Todd said that both McCain and Obama had essentially stopped running campaigns against Clinton, so it made sense that she was polling better. I would be interested to see polling data for the previous cases he cited, because it was a point that I haven't heard anyone in the MSM bring up yet.
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Dinger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-27-08 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #27
30. Whistling , No Worries
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