The numbers if they give 1/2 votes to Florida and Michigan

Redbear

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Wed May-28-08 08:59 AM
Original message

The numbers if they give 1/2 votes to Florida and Michigan

Based upon giving 1/2 votes to Florida and Michigan pledged delegates and full votes to their supers:

New winning number: 2130.5

Obama total 2032.5 (including 9 from MI uncommitted plus those Edward delegates who have switched)

Clinton total 1884.0

Remaining:

PR 55
MT 16
SD 15

Edwards uncommitted 12.5
Michigan uncommitted 18.5
Supers uncommitted 227.0

Scenario:

PR splits 30-25 for Clinton
MT splits 8-8
SD splits 8-7 for Obama

Obama 2073.5
Clinton 1929.0

The Edwards/Michigan/Supers block (assuming no more of them commit before June 3)would be 258.0

Obama would need 57.0 of these to be the nominee
Clinton would need 201.5 of these to become the nominee

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Hugabear

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Wed May-28-08 09:04 AM
Response to Original message

1. Shhh...don't spoil their delusion!

They somehow think that if FL and MI are counted, then it will automatically catapult Hillary into the lead. Don't spoil their delusions with cold, hard reality!

They prefer to think that Hillary has a 100% probability of winning in November (despite the fact that you will NEVER find a pollster, statistician, or bookie to give you those odds).

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LSparkle

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Wed May-28-08 09:07 AM
Response to Original message

2. Interesting ... my prediction is

Big block of Supers will move toward Obama on Monday
(6/2), so that the pledged delegates he wins from SD
and Montana will put him over the top. Talk is that
the Supers don't want to be his margin of victory, and
they'll only have that one day to make their move in
order to avoid that scenario.

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Liberal_Stalwart71

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Wed May-28-08 09:11 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. The mistake that some us Obama supporters are making is that...

The metric that the Clintons and The Enablers are using is NOT the number of pledged or superdelegates. The metric they are using is the Popular Vote. It doesn't matter how many delegates they give Hillary; she knows that she cannot overcome his delegate/superdelegate lead. This is about making her case in terms of the Popular Vote. There's at least two arguments that she makes:

1. She won the Popular Vote so the SD's cannot overturn the will of the people.
2. She won the Popular Vote so the SD's and DNC must make her the VP running mate.

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VolcanoJen

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Wed May-28-08 09:11 AM
Response to Original message

4. Hillary has always benefited more from the FL/MI ambiguity...

... than she could ever benefit from this issue being finalized, once and for all.

Once any kind of agreement and decision on the FL/MI delegates is reached, the final door closes on the Clinton candidacy.

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Redbear

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Wed May-28-08 09:16 AM
Response to Reply #4

5. Its true that ambiguity let her play for time

her only hope now is that the SDs who haven't committed yet, haven't done so because of real reservations about Sen. Obama's candidacy.

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