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I've been pretty inactive lately on the good ol' DU (I think my pony is about to arrive in the mail!!!), But over the last few days I keep seeing posts about "Hillary Wins in Polls Against McCain" or "If She Gets The Popular Vote Then The SD's HAVE To Support Her".
Am I missing something?
Obama is winning. Period. I'll explain my logic in the following and I welcome any counter points of view because I'm always open to being corrected. But in my mind, the first Super Tuesday sealed the deal. And without projecting malice, I truly feel that any other candidate would have dropped out given the enormous lead Obama held over Clinton after that day. It's her choice to stay in, but the consequences of doing so will be on record for history to judge. Anyhow, here are the reasons why the SD's will not change sides for Senator Clinton:
1. She can't catch him in Pledged Delegates. This is the metric set by the DNC and the game the several candidates agreed to play when they chose to run as a Democratic nominee oh so many months ago. Even if they seat Michigan and Florida, she still falls behind. Oh and by the way, I have a feeling The Hillary Support group isn't going to like the outcome of May 31st. It may be a compromise but it's not going to completely benefit Senator Clinton. My speculation is somewhere around 50% of 50%. Of course, I'm just licking my thumb and putting it in the air. Anyhooooo...
2. As much as some of the mouthbreathers on TV would like you to believe otherwise, the Super Delegates will take pledged delegates into account more than any other made up metric now in play. Maybe there's something to 'more states in the electoral college/swing state polls' or the 'popular vote' argument. But even if there was, then howcome the SD's have been continuously flowing towards Obama? Truthbetold, polls today mean nothing - they change. The popular vote is skewed and inaccurate due to caucuses and the MI/FL debacle. The only test which can be quantified at this point is the Pledged Delegate assignment. See my point #1 for amplifying detail on why this is so important.
3. He's run a better campaign. People like winners and his campaign is nothing short of a fairytale (hehe) - y'know, the kind that ends in 'They All Lived Happily Ever After'. We can argue all day about who's the better candidate, but in most people's eyes the better candidate is the one holding the flag on top of the hill (see point 1).
4. This contest needs to end. The next one is just around the corner and there's plenty of work to be done. Most SD's can argue after next week, we've reached the end and they can cast their preferences thus allowing us all to move on.
So, you can argue your new metrics and invented merits all day. You can argue that new polls show that John Holmes has a better shot than Obama at winning the General Election. You can hold your breathe until your face turns blue. It's really not going to matter. We have a nominee. If you choose to disagree, I remind you that plenty is at stake if we lose this election. If any candidate takes this to the convention, no candidate will benefit and we'd be forced to endure another 4 years of a Bush third term. If you choose to vote for McCain because you can't have your way, may I respectfully say, Fuck Right Off.
These people we vote for are politicians, not family members. You don't have to love them to vote for them. I don't particularly like either candidate as much as some of the one's that dropped out. Guess what? That's life. But I tell you this, if Obama doesn't stir your soul, then think about 4 more years of rising oil, dead soldiers/airmen/marines/sailors, unchecked corporate greed and outsourced jobs. Be a good democrat and do what's right.
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