Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Obama/Clinton delegate total projection come June 4th

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
Politics_Guy25 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 10:12 PM
Original message
Obama/Clinton delegate total projection come June 4th
Edited on Wed May-28-08 10:14 PM by RMP2008
I just played around with demconwatch and the slate delegate calculator.

I predict that, first of all, the Rules and Bylaw commitee will seat Michigan and Florida at a half vote each for both pledged and superdelegates. Using the demconwatch scenario 3, Obama is at 2030.5 delegates right now. I predict Senator Obama wins 22 delegates from PR, 10 from Montana, and 9 or 10 from SD. Obama will finish the primary season with 2,071 delegates (pledged and super) for sure. I'll say he gets 10 more superdelegates between now and June 3. Being conservative.

I project that Senator Obama will have 2,081 delegates or so on the morning of June 4th unless he announces a flood of superdelegates after he wins Montana and South Dakota. He'll be 36 delegates away from the required 2,117.

If he can then get the remaining 18 John Edwards pledged delegates who haven't committed, he'll just need 18 or so superdelegate endorsements.

In short, Senator Obama is pretty much guaranteed to be no more than 35 or 36 delegates away from the nomination come June 4th. There will be a pool of 180 or so superdelegates and John Edwards pledged delegates remaining after this point. Even if Senator Clinton won all of them, she'd be 16 short of the nomination with 2,101 delegates (which won't happen of course). She's close to the point of being mathematically eliminated if she isn't already. Of course, she already is eliminated for all intents and purposes.

For history's sake, I project Senator Clinton to finish with 1,921 or so delegates for sure.

To take a wild guess at what the final results will be. I'll say.
Obama-2,201
Clinton-1,981
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC