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Polls in May and June are WORTHLESS

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Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
George_Bonanza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 11:33 PM
Original message
Polls in May and June are WORTHLESS
If they were of any value, then John Kerry would be running up for re-election and people would be saying "Barack who"? There is so much that can happen between now and November that current polls are absolutely meaningless. You'd think that Hillary of all people would've learned her lesson by now in trusting too much in polls that are taken before a single vote is cast. Remember August 2007? Hillary was 20 points ahead in every single poll!
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cliffordu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 11:34 PM
Response to Original message
1. YEP - absolutely correct.
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smalll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 11:38 PM
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2. What about polls in July? IN AUGUST?
Edited on Wed May-28-08 11:39 PM by smalll
What if Obama continues to LOSE to McCain in general election match-ups throughout the summer?

If so, the SuperDs will go for Hillary. As is their right. ON TO DENVER!
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Wetzelbill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. they really don't start to matter until after the conventions
In all honesty. After the candidates get artificial bumps from their conventions things start to even out a little, then you get a better idea of where everybody is at. Most of the voting public couldn't even tell you a thing about either McCain or Obama right now. Not much anyway. Later on they start figuring things out when the race starts getting down to the wire. It's how it always works. Mondale was even up on Reagan for a short time after the Dem convention. Dukakis was up about 14 points. Kerry was consistently 5 points up on Bush until the GOP convention. Clinton was behind Bush and Perot most of the spring and summer, then Perot pulled out and the dynamic changed. Then he got in and it changed again. Polls right now are hardly indicative of the final result. But regardless of what the GE polls look like, the SDs are going his way, they have been. They won't go to her unless he is hit with something so bad he has to get out. Like a sex scandal or something. She's really been done for awhile. Close enough to hang in, but she's been out of it for about 3 months now. February killed her.
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featherman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 11:38 PM
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3. As many of us keep saying... for entertainment purposes only
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MarjorieG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-28-08 11:56 PM
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5. Kinda like primary states won by name recognition more than campaigning, also not as meaningful.
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