Who can do the math to get to 2210? - Democratic Underground

NotThisTime

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Thu May-29-08 07:15 AM
Original message

Who can do the math to get to 2210?

Since that is the NEW math & the math that needs to hold NOT to go to convention, who can get there and how? There are 86 electoral votes left, I don't know what the breakdown of FL & Mi is if it's split by half.... so who can get there & how many Supers will they need?

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berni_mccoy

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Thu May-29-08 07:17 AM
Response to Original message

1. First, 2210 probably won't be the number. It will be closer to 2100. And electoral votes

Edited on Thu May-29-08 07:18 AM by berni_mccoy

have nothing to do with a primary.

The RCB committee that meets Saturday can, at best, grant 50% of the *pledged* delegates to MI and FL, the minimum penalty for violating the rules. The SDs are out.

Here's the likely math after Saturday (Obama still wins): http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/347

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tekisui

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Thu May-29-08 07:19 AM
Response to Original message

2. It won't be 2210, it will likely be 2117 or less.

That is half of MI/FL's delegates. Obama can easily get there. He will stand only 90 from it, with 36+ coming from the remaining Primaries and the rest from the remaining Superdelegates.

Hillary would need some 240 more. It's virtually impossible for her.

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berni_mccoy

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Thu May-29-08 07:20 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. It's even lower than that. The SD's don't get added back in

See the math from my post yesterday: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/347

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tekisui

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Thu May-29-08 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #3

9. Thanks. I was wondering what would happen with the SUpers.

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NotThisTime

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Thu May-29-08 07:20 AM
Response to Reply #2

4. But right now the Clinton camp is saying it will be 2210 or they will bring it to convention, can

Obama get there? Are there enough Supers left to make up the difference? I'd prefer NOT to see a floor fight...

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berni_mccoy

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Thu May-29-08 07:21 AM
Response to Reply #4

5. They can do that, but no one will respect them and they will be ignored.

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tekisui

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Thu May-29-08 07:22 AM
Response to Reply #4

6. He can get to that number as well. With the Superdelegates.

But, it won't be that number, and Hillary will not have the support to take it to the COnvention.

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NotThisTime

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Thu May-29-08 07:24 AM
Response to Reply #6

10. I really hope you are right... I so strongly feel she will not bow out unless he gets 2210 & even

then she may not get out <sigh>

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Kierkegaard

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Thu May-29-08 07:49 AM
Response to Reply #4

11. What the Clinton camp says is like the weather...

wait a few minutes and it will change.

This is just an excuse to bring it to convention because they know reaching 2210 isn't very likely.

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Jersey Devil

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Thu May-29-08 07:22 AM
Response to Original message

7. delete per berni_mccoy's response

Edited on Thu May-29-08 07:28 AM by Jersey Devil

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cali

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Thu May-29-08 07:23 AM
Response to Original message

8. bzzzt. nope. that's not the new math. It couldn't be clearer that

MI and FL will NOT be seated fully. Try 2117. And Obama gets there with ease.

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WeDidIt

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Thu May-29-08 07:51 AM
Response to Original message

12. There is no way under the rules where it will be 2210

There are lots of numbers floating, but it will never be 2210. Under the rules, the minimum punishment to Florida and Michigan is to strip half their delegates.

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