If Obama loses Michigan in the fall, is there any shot for him to win?

Two recent polls show Obama trailing against McCain by 4 points. Michigan is now in danger with Obama as our nominee. If he loses it, can he make it up anywhere else?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

As to the question , if either Obama or Clinton couldn't held a nominal Democratic state like MI it raises concern about how they would do in states less Democratic...

just keeps wanting to lose to McSame....

Hillary!! In it to win it!!!!


:sarcasm:

There's a real case to be made for your words to be true. Like it or not.

You shouldn't be so sarcastic about Hillary like that.

oH noeEEEESSSS!!!!

:evilgrin:

just like no Dem is going to lose Oregon, even though some polls show Hillary losing Oregon to McCain.

two things worry me: grumbling about the primaries that flares up here and there, and Obama's alleged hostility toward the auto industry. I don't know if either of these will ultimately cost him many votes, but they are brought up repeatedly.

What reputable source alleges that?

pnorman

The sentiment is that he wants to put an unfair burden on an already floundering industry; that he's demanding upgrades on a boat that's barely treading water.

It stems from this last year:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/08/us/politics/08obama.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

They still talk about it. So does the media.

Now, I'm not saying they like or trust McCain, but you'd have to be a fool to think auto workers appreciate being scolded in this economy. Obama's come some way toward redeeming himself with the recent trip here, but he'd be wise to stay sensitive to the raw wounds in this region and keep from wagging his finger at them any more.

He has said that the auto industry has to work towards better fuel efficiency and/or other energy sources.
I can see that some might see that as a burden - but its a necessary burden to keep the industry competetive and reduce fuel consumption.

Just look at the fervor for Obama. Against Obama. And ever other candidate who makes a mark.

I can't read tea leaves but I would say Obama has deep vulnerability in many states needed to win.

the prevailing force. Logic of course backs what Obama says about what the industry should do/should have been doing. The issue is what workers hear, emotionally, in this climate.

My own union is a maritime one (http://d1meba.org), and I'm frequently appalled how many of my brothers & sisters are rabidly Republican. They pretend that it's from a position of "moral superiority" (ie: "guns, gays, god, & flag"), and a few even viciously red-bait me for my opinions/beliefs. But beyond a doubt, many are acting primarily from a crass perception of economic interests (as short-term as they may be in fact.)

My father was a life-long Wobbly, and that has largely shaped my own unionism beliefs. And not being a card-carrying Christian, Unionism is my religion. Moreover, I've been retired from 2000, so I can take "the long view". I'm also getting close to my expiration date, and I'm getting a bit DESPERATE to see a sign that the Tide is Turning. But hard-bitten and life-long leftist that I am, I still get a clear message of HOPE from Obama. And I passionately HOPE that all other Americans will vote for the long term interests of our Nation (and our World). I truly believe that there is absolutely NO margin for error this year. Please try to convey this to your family & union members.

In Solidarity,
pnorman

I didn't know the British had the UAW in country....

As in, Michigan. Where I have lived for 15+ years. And where my family on my mother's side has lived and worked for 70+ years, mostly in the auto industry. So take your loaded ellipses elsewhere. And, again, anyone who doesn't respect the fact that emotions are very raw here and that sensitivity toward that will be vital to winning this state, doesn't know shit about politics or the economy, much less this region.

"And, again, anyone who doesn't respect the fact that emotions are very raw here and that sensitivity toward that will be vital to winning this state, doesn't know shit about politics or the economy, much less this region."

And because Bill and Hillary started up this Nafta thingy and the American auto industry couldn't make a car woth a shit for about 15 years Obama needs to come and kiss your ass??

My wife is from Indiana. I know all about what happened to that area and it's industry.

But I did love my Gremlin.

The primaries are (essentially) over. Time to switch out of that mode; time to stop blaming the Clintons, because we're painfully aware of the effect of their NAFTA. You can trash the industry and look down on us and say it's all our fault all you want, but if you want to win this November then Obama had better take the opposite approach. So, yeah, kiss our ass a little. God knows we could use a pep talk and a plan for fair trade more than your cliched contempt.

.

Obama will blow that slim advantage into next week once he is formally recognized as the nominee.

- as

Many states I'm unsure of including my own (Virginia just may turn blue), but NOT Michigan. It's struggling so much financially, they won't vote for a GOPer for President. No Way!

Because that kind of arrogance will cost us the White House.

Bake

THAT is what I think about Clintons and their loyalists and all the lies that surround their role in the Democratic party.

When do REALLY IMPORTANT QUESTIONS about your nation matter to you?

n/t

You mean Michigan isn't the end-all, be-all?

Or is that West Virginia?

Or Kentucky?

Or Puerto Rico?

Or non-caucus states?

OMG!

I'm so confused! :cry:

No wait! It's the yellow one, right?

Oh, shit! Maybe it's the white one!

Damn it! I'm STILL confused! :cry:

:rofl:

Do I take the white pill after I turn blue?

Or, can I take another color pill to change my color to something else? :shrug:

Dang it, papapi! I'm STILL confused! :crazy:

...if they somehow slip (by hook or by crook) that brainless, witless McLame on us. GObama!

Never mind. You've been alerted, you know why.

Campobama has, so far, conceded OH, FL, WV, and several other states that ought to be battleground states. But at least we'll pick up VA!

Keep conceding the battleground states, and the rest won't matter.

Bake

:rofl:

Bake

He's going to win, and there will be some surprises to go along with his win.

but possible.
But to be hoped for. But not blindly.

The SUSA poll had 22% undecided and McCain winning 26% of the black vote. IOW, it was an outlier.

I'm a student in VA so I definitely plan on helping him win there.

I have a really good feeling about Obama taking VA. Call it old timers intuition. Worked at UVa many years.

I finished my 2nd year at George Mason earlier this month. For Obama to win VA, Nova Democrats are going to have turn out big time. I hope Warner and Webb can help with that.

He has to win both NOVA and HampRds. If he loses HampRds, his shot of winning it is slim to none.

There are a few reasonable ways.

Assume as a baseline him winning all the Kerry states + CO + IA + NM (all very reasonable to put in his column). That's 273 EV.

1. He loses MI, but wins VA, that's 269 EV. He would win the presidency in Congress since the Democrats control Congress.

2. He loses MI, but wins OH, that's 276 EV

Less plausible scenarios (from more plausible to least) would be:

3. He loses MI, but wins NC (271 EV)

4. He loses MI but wins a combination of any two southern states except Arkansas + MS.

5. He loses MI, but wins FL.

6. He loses MI but wins TX

There are some other possibilities, like losing MI but winning NV and IN, but I won't include them. Bottom line is that 4 points down 6 months out isn't a problem.

Hmmm, seem to have a Grandma and Grandpa complex. LOL

Sad when people live out their lives confused.

All of these polls will be meaningless once we start rallying around a candidate.

it's a good thing Obama didn't give up 5 months before the primary voting started when he was behind.

He needs MI, and he will get it.

They're essentially political porn.

Michigan: visiting does not constitute campaigning? I believe he has also been other places in the state as well.

Quit showing polls five months out.

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Even the Republican oriented Rasmussen acknowledges that Sen. Obama will probably win in November:

"The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.2% chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants)."

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up."

link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

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Even the financial markets recognize that Sen. Obama will likely win in November:

Intrade Prediction Markets: http://www.intrade.com / (The Rasmussen Market figures are pretty much in the same ball park: http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/ )



Intrade Prediction Market gives a 61.5% to 63.4% chance that the Democrats will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 57.5% to 57.6%chance that Barak Obama will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 5.8% to 5.9% chance that Hillary Clinton will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.6% to 37.7% chance that John McCain will be elected President in November

Intrade Prediction Market gives a 37.0% to 38.7% chance the Republicans will win the White House in November

Intrade Prediction Markets gives Hillary Clinton 83% to 83.9% chance of dropping out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 30 Jun 2008 (This is up 14.8%)

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"

Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. We will stop tracking the Democratic race in the near future to focus exclusively on the Obama-McCain match-up":

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

campaign, once she is put out to pasture the party will come together.

and has no plans for the economy

There's no question about it, imho. The Democrats have a lot of campaigning to do in Michigan to heal the damage caused by the FUBAR in January. (Don't tell me about who's to blame - IT AIN'T THE VOTERS!)

but, as many have noted in other contexts- however irrational, those are the rules.

As Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin go- so goes America. Indeed, when you play with the map and make reasonable projections, it's easy to foresee another popular vote victory and electoral loss, for either of these two candidates.

While most states have 10% undecided. That means that a lot of Clinton supporters are probably answering undecided and will come over to Obama once he officially is the nominee.

Don't get me wrong, We'd LOVE to have any of those to come along for the party, but IF they choose not to, He can and WILL win without them, if necessary..

Money spent in those BIG states, goes a LOT further in some smaller, contiguous states where he's polling quite well.. He has his ground game up and running in them already, and Mccain is going to deflate like a balloon once Baravk starts actually running the GE race..

Alaska hates Mccain and they have been republicanized long enough. Theres been one scandal after another up there..

Barr's in it, so we have a real shot at Georgia & NC ..The Ron Paulists & fundamentalists will share their republican votes with him..

Two maps... One cautious & one "possible"..





and another possible

but history and the nature of the electorate in the South dictate otherwise to me.

Absent a McCain meltdown, I can't see ANY Democrat carrying a single southern state, considering that almost every single one requires a double digit swing.

Look back to our two most recent presidential candidates..neither one had that "it-factor"..

Kerry and Gore were nice enough guys, and smart too, but both had that "drone-y" way of speaking, and neither had an energized base.. We have that NOW..anf McCain still cannot count on republicans supporting him..

someone that they can vote FOR as opposed to voting against the Republican. Haven't seen that in my adult lifetime, at least.

Whether it will make up enough of the swing in certain states is doubtful, but there's along way to go and stranger things have happened.

The Republican advantage there is less squishy than in some other southern states.

:)

:evilgrin:

...then what?

they have McCain pulling 30 percent of the AA voters... ya right.

Was that discussed at today's meeting?
Your "concern" is noted.

Obama is currently:
Solid in states combining 186 electoral votes
Winning outside the MOE in states worth an additional 65 electoral votes
Winning or tied within the MOE in states worth 49 electoral votes
Losing within the MOE in states worth 36 electoral votes
And
within striking distance in states worth 78 electoral votes

headway in that state. What I enjoy about his campaign, is that he does seem to have a grasp of the numbers. He has the resources, and hard feelings will begin to heal after the decision this weekend. The polls will move, bank on it.