Mitofsky said that Gore's real votes were more than the Exit Poll totals

In other words, an exit poll reflects the outcome of an election with extreme accuracy. It never states the opposite result.

http://www.ajr.org/Article.asp?id=519

n/t

In the race to be first, NBC "won," jumping even before VNS at 7:49 p.m.

CBS waited one minute.

Warren Mitofsky, who invented exit polls in 1967, has been in the race-calling business for 33 years. He ran CBS' election unit from 1972 until 1990 and is known for his caution. Mitofsky, working for CBS and CNN, had vote totals from 12 of 120 sample precincts and data from 38 exit poll precincts. Gore was doing so well that he concluded exit polls had been overstating Bush's numbers. "The real votes were telling us Gore was ahead," says Mitofsky. "The exit poll data gave us a slight lead for Gore, and the overlap of the two was telling us that the exit poll data should have given Gore more support."

Okay, so why did Mitofsky all of a sudden get so stupid in the 2004 race???

My goal is very simple...I want to put Bush and Mitofsky out of business!:nuke:

PS: All of us have read millions of pages in information related to the fraud, I'm sure.

I think is a world record.

that he thought that the election was solid -- something must have "skewed" the exit polls (I'm paraphrasing, though I've posted about it before -- it was either a direct quote from him during a Report By Pam Fessler (NPR All Things Considered/Morning Edition) on November 3rd or 4th or a quote attributed to him by Pam Fessler on the same dates.

Only later did I start to see that he, too was questioning things.

Democratic bias. Or is that just in battleground states where the opponent's brother is the Governor?

Which is it?

"If you don't eat yer meat, you can't have any pudding. How can you
have any pudding if you don't eat yer meat?"

A message to warren mitofsky@mindspring.com
I urge you to abide by the polling standards promulgated by the
American Association for Public Opinion Research by publicly:

-- Releasing exit poll data so researchers can verify your results and replicate your calculations.
-- Discussing possible sources of error.
-- Describing any special scoring, editing, data adjustment or
indexing procedures (or calibration) used.
-- Describing your sample design.
-- Describing your sample selection procedure.
-- Delivering a full accounting of the final outcome of all "sample
cases."
-- Describing how non respondents differ from respondents.

The data no longer have proprietary value to your subscribers.
Election Night is long over, they hired you to help them promptly
report results. Now it's time to make a transition to public service,
Mr. Mitofsky.

I posted this message, and here is the response I received from Mr. Mitofsky himself:

I do abide by the polling standards of AAPOR. See www.exit-poll.net for the methods statements that meets these standards. There is no standard that even suggests I release my clients data. We will issue a report some time in January with our investigation of the NEP data. The raw data from the exit polls and the questionnaires will be archived at two universities, as all previous exit polls have been. I started that trend in 1972. This should satisfy all your requests and those of all the other people who sent almost identical letters.
warren mitofsky

Does anyone know if the university archive is open to the general public?

It says that exit polls are the least accurate of the information they use. The "raw votes" and "actual votes" are more accurate.

"There are three sources of data that VNS uses for its projections. Exit poll results, the least accurate of the three, come in three times during the day. They are only used to project winners. Once the polls close, raw votes from sample precincts are phoned in and measured against exit poll data. The tally that counts--the actual vote total--comes in throughout the evening."