Ohio pre-certification oddities - vanishing votes etc.

(on edit - I should point out that I am one of your neighbors to the north, a Canadian, and am unfamiliar with many of the names to whom people are suggesting that I send this. If you feel that someone else would benefit from this info, please feel free to forward it directly.)

On election night and on subsequent days, I captured readings from the Ohio SoS election results website. They're all loaded now into one huge spreadsheet and I'm seeing some disturbing things - some of which have been reported before and others, to the best of my knowledge, have not.

Readings were made regularly through Nov 15th. On Nov 17th, the site appeared to have been reset to 0 for all races, and on the 18th SOME but not all counties continued to be reported with updated totals, with others showing 0. Since many of these occurrances may have perfectly sound explanations, with the exception of the Lake and Lucas Counties vanishing votes, I have tried to avoid commenting on them.
HG
All times listed are CST starting on Nov 2nd - times like 0010 or 0840 are Nov 3rd.

VANISHING VOTES
Fairfield County - election night by 2235cst, BADNARIK had recieved 523 votes, however between 2340cst and 2350cst his total dropped to 187 where it stayed until certification, at which point he gained 3 more votes.

Fairfield County - election night by 2235cst, PEROUTKA had recieved 708 votes, however between 0010cst and 0035cst his total dropped to 189 where it stayed until certification, at which point he gained 2 more votes.

Hamilton County - election night between 2055cst and 2130cst, the total for COBB went from 0 to 39541, which was identical to the total for KERRY. Then, between 2130cst and 2200cst, the total for COBB went from 39541 back to 0, but NO other totals changed.

Hocking County - election night by 2250cst SCHRINER had recieved 24 votes, however between 0000cst and 0010cst all of those votes vanished, and he ended with a certified total of 0.

Lake County - election night between 1935cst and 1945cst, the total for COBB went from 0 to 14883, which was identical to the total for KERRY. Those totals remained in place until 2035cst, when the COBB total went back to 0 and the KERRY totals went to 42191. COBB's total stayed at 0 until certification, at which point it went to 8.

Lake County - election night between 2010cst and 2035cst, the total for SCHRINER went from 0 to 90, but between 2035cst and 2055cst it went back to 0, where it stayed until certification, at which time it went to 1 vote.

Lucas County - election night between 2055cst and 2130cst, the total for COBB went from 0 to 4685, but between 2130cst and 2200cst it went back to 0, at the same time as the KERRY total went from 0 to 4685. Shortly after, at 2235cst, the COBB total went back up to 4685, where it stayed until 2315cst, at which time it went back down to 0 and stayed that way until certification, at which point it went to 8. (seems VERY similar to Lake county)

Medina County - election night between 2035cst and 2055cst, the total for PARKER went from 0 to 11, but between 2055cst and 2130cst it went back to 0, where it stayed.

Meigs County - election night between 2010cst and 2035cst, the total for PEROUTKA went from 0 to 103 but between 0010cst and 0035cst on Nov 3, his total went back to 0. Between 0035cst and 0055cst he regained 31 votes, which stayed with him through certification.

ONE SHOT WONDERS
Harrison County - election night posted just one set of results between 2200cst and 2235cst, and had no updates until certification, when BADNARIK lost 11 votes and BUSH and KERRY each lost exactly 44 votes.

Richland County - election night posted just one set of results between 2130cst and 2200cst, and had no updates until certification.

DELAYED REPORTING
Huron County - no election night results were revealed until between 2340cst and 2350cst.

Jackson County - no election night results were revealed until between 0055cst and 0115cst

Miami County - no election night results were revealed until between 2300cst and 2315cst.

Tuscarawas County - no election night results were revealed until between 0010cst and 0035cst.

SHARED VOTE NUMBERS
Columbiana County - sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, BUSH and KERRY each gained exactly 542 votes.

Lake County - sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, BUSH and KERRY each gained exactly 1578 votes.

Harrison County - split loss of 44 each. see ONE SHOT WONDERS.

PROVISIONAL EXTRAS
With my understanding of provisional ballots, I had expected to see totals displayed after Nov 15th rise by no more than the number of provisional ballots issued. I had assumed that absentee ballots would have already been counted by the 15th, which was my last reading prior to the apparent reset of the web site totals on the 17th.

Adams County - although only 184 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 264 votes were added.

Allen County - although only 1374 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 1631 votes were added.

Athens County - although only 2504 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 2579 votes were added.

Clinton County - although only 378 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 491 votes were added.

Defiance County - although only 541 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 671 votes were added.

Erie County - although only 1072 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 1340 votes were added.

Geauga County - although only 668 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 686 votes were added.

Greene County - although only 2127 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 2731 votes were added.

Guernsey County - although only 558 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 1579 votes were added.

Hamilton County - although only 14386 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 15396 votes were added.

Hancock County - although only 791 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 1195 votes were added.

Hardin County - although only 349 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 416 votes were added.

Highland County - although only 494 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 527 votes were added.

Holmes County - although only 170 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 242 votes were added.

Lake County - although only 1975 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 3180 votes were added.

Liking County - although only 1565 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 1637 votes were added.

Monroe County - although only 132 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 135 votes were added.

Warren County - although only 1465 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 2168 votes were added.

Washington County - although only 643 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 791 votes were added.

Wyandot County - although only 138 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 456 votes were added.

PROVISIONAL LOSSES
Harrison County - although 89 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 98 votes were subtracted.

Sandusky County - although 760 provisional ballots were issued, sometime after Nov 15 at 2230cst, 2891 votes were subtracted.

Nominating for HOMEPAGE

I took the data the first day or two from the website but didn't have time to compare it yet with new "certified" numbers --- (I'm looking at differences between 2000 and 2004, but most of the stats guys here did it fast and much easier to understand.

WHY would the provisional votes change? One explaination is that people asked for a provisional ballot in one county, and it counted in another... but the discrepency is too high for that -- really, a lot of them are almost doubled. But the "total" certified votes aren't all provisional.

So -- Where else would the "certified" votes come from -- we don't know for a fact that the "additional" votes were all provisional, AND we know that they threw out something like 1 in 4 provisional ballots right (fix that stat if it's not correct).. so....

???

The figures that I'm using as the 'certified results' are the figures displayed on Dec 12th at 1205cst. While I haven't checked, I'm assuming that these ARE certified. (someone pease correct me if I'm wrong)

'We don't know for a fact that the "additional" votes were all provisional....'

You're right with this. I'm again making the assumption that the numbers by the 15th included the absentee ballots. It's possible that some counties did not have all their absentee ballots counted until later and that the number of those absentees plus the validated provisionals exceeded the number of issued provisionals.

HG

Did they give a count for that before they posted, like they did for the Provisional Ballots? If we know that 150,000 Provisional Ballots were out, how many were "thrown out" and how many Absentee ballots were out, (did any of them get thrown out?) then we can begin to see through totals first if things match up.

Do they post numbers of absentee received by precinct before they combine them in the totals?

thanks again!

....then I didn't see them, and as a result didn't capture them.

I suspect that some counties include the absentees while others might not. Franklin and Lake both had initial totals up by the time of my first capture at 1850cst, so I expect that those included absentee.

HG

He's the minority chair of the house judiciary committee- he's holding the hearings tomorrow in OH. This is the house judiciary dems page:

http://www.house.gov/judiciary_democrats/contact.html

And here's his personal representative page:

http://www.house.gov/conyers/letstalk.htm

I'll see if I can find Arnebeck's email.

Thank you Harmony Guy! :hi:

I've looked for the absentee totals by county, but haven't seen them. Does anyone else have them?

HG

Maybe we should learn your real name because, with this info, you may be one of the star witnesses in Arnebeck's case! We'd have to look for you on C-Span! :)

Seriously, great work, harmonyguy. DUers are some smart individuals. I would never expect anyone over at Freeperville USofSaudi take the time and effort to do something like this - or even have the thought in their heads about how to do something like this.

:yourock:

where can we view the composite spreadsheet? This is exactly the kind of thing that everybody's been trying to get the MSM to talk about.

Now you have time on your hands to help out your brethren here in Ohio.

Good get!

Thanks!

:toast:

Even visited Ohio decades ago - the thriving metropolis of Vandalia. Interesting place.
HG

new at posting... long time lurker

The vanishing vote numbers are odd numbers with exception of 0, the bulk of them division-able by 11. Is that a potential binary artifact I see?

k

I'm not a geek, forgive me, interface between artists and geeks.

a math guy need to look at it.

k

VANISHING VOTES
Fairfield County 523 votes/11=47.54545454545
187 /11=17

708 /11 votes=64.363636363636
189/11 17.181818181818

39541/11=3594.636363636364

Hocking County - 24 votes, however between 0000cst and 0010cst all of those votes vanished, and he ended with a certified total of 0.

14883/11=1353, when the COBB total went back to 0 and the KERRY totals went to 42191/ 11=3835.545454545455
Lake County - from 0 to 90, but between 2035cst and 2055cst it went back to 0, where it stayed until certification, at which time it went to 1 vote.

Lucas County - 4685/ 11=425.909090909091

Medina County - PARKER went from 0 to 11,

Meigs County - election night between 2010cst and 2035cst, the total for PEROUTKA went from 0 to 103 but between 0010cst and 0035cst on Nov 3, his total went back to 0. Between 0035cst and 0055cst he regained 31 votes, which stayed with him through certification.

ONE SHOT WONDERS
BADNARIK lost 11 votes and BUSH and KERRY each lost exactly 44/11=4 votes.

Amazing!

are you talking to me? I just popped out at me, when I read the harmony guys post.

not only is DU new for me .. so are message boards.

I have not sent it.

k

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

don't have that info but come on DU hook up now.

Great work. Oh, Canada!

www.votecobb.org

Where have you been?

...where have I been?

Well, up 'till now, everyone else seems to have been focussed on Ohio, so instead, I focussed on New Mexico, and came up with some interesting stuff there. Now that THAT data has been sent to some feet on the street, I thought it was time to look at my Ohio data and see what I got.

With no disrespect intended, part of me wants to ask where the heck YOU have been? Not YOU personally, or even the other folks here at DU, but I simply don't understand why my neighbors to the south aren't yelling, screaming, hollering, and taking to the streets in protest? (Rhetorical question - no answer needed)

In the Ukraine, they apparently knew within a couple of days that the election was rigged. Hundreds of thousands took to the streets, and stayed put until they were heard.

I think this cartoon from today's paper just about says it all.


HG

feelin' a little paranoid . . .

I first found this forum while desperately seeking news Nov. 3 a.m.

...my God, the amount of diligence it takes to catch all these things - it's phenomenal.

arnebeck@aol,com

way too many Americans...bless you