National Election Poll: Analysis of Voter Demographics

Here's a reference for those who want to see the weighted
national characteristic vote summaries in one spot.

Consistency in the weighted votes across all the categories is
a strong confirmation that the only conclusion one can draw
from the national exit poll is this: 

 **********  Kerry won the election by 50.8%-48.2% ********** 

National Exit Poll 
13047 sampled
Randomly selected
1.0% Margin of Error

...................................    Weighted National Vote 
		
GENDER	     Vert.    Bush Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
Male..          46%     52%    47%	1%	23.5%	21.6%	0.5%
Female          54%     45%    54%	1%	24.3%	29.2%	0.5%
							
             100% 		            48.22% 50.78% 1.00%

........................................................						
						
EDUCATION.......Vert      Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
No HighSchool    4%        47%     52%   1%	1.9%	2.1%	0.0%
H.S. Graduate    22%       48% 	51%	1%	10.6%	11.2%	0.2%
Some College.    31%       51%	47%	1%	15.8%	14.6%	0.3%
College Grad.     26%      50%	48%	1%	13.0%	12.5%	0.3%
Postgrad.....     17%      40%	58%	2%	6.8%	9.9%	0.3%
							
	           100.%			      48.1%	50.2%	1.2%
							
........................................................			
							
RACE AND GENDER	Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
White Men 	      36%	58%	41%	1%	20.9%	14.8%	0.4%
White Women 	         41%	   52%	47%	1%	21.3%	19.3%	0.4%
Non-White Men 	         10%	   28%	69%	1%	2.8%	6.9%	0.1%
Non-White Women 	13%	22%	77%	1%	2.9%	10.0%	0.1%
							
			100%		             47.9%	50.9%	1.0%

........................................................										

 AGE	  Vert. Bush   Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
18-29 	   17%   43%	56%	1%	7.3%	9.5%	0.2%
30-44 	   27%   50%	49%	1%	13.5%	13.2%	0.3%
45-59 	   30%   47%	51%	1%	14.1%	15.3%	0.3%
60 +  	   26%   51%	48%	1%	13.3%	12.5%	0.3%
							
	  100%			     48.2%	50.5%	1.0%

........................................................			

INCOME	   Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry Nader
$0-$15,000  	9%	33%	66%	1%	3.0%	5.9%	0.1%
$15-30,000 	  15%	39%	59%	1%	5.9%	8.9%	0.2%
$30-50,000 	  22%	47%	52%	1%	10.3%	11.4%	0.2%
$50-75,000 	  23%	53%	45%	1%	12.2%	10.4%	0.2%
$75-100,000 	13%	50%	49%	0%	6.5%	6.4%	0.0%
$100-150,000 	11%	53%	45%	2%	5.8%	5.0%	0.2%
$150-200,000 	4%	53%	47%	0%	2.1%	1.9%	0.0%
$200,000 + 	   4%	58%	41%	1%	2.3%	1.6%	0.0%
							
		100%		            48.1%	51.4%	1.0%

........................................................										

PARTY ID	    Vert.Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Democrat 	    38%	    9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Republican 	    36%	   92%	7%	0%	33.1%	2.5%	0.0%
Independent	    26%	   45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%

	          100%			        48.2% 50.2% 0.9%
							
........................................................			

IDEOLOGY	Vert. 	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Liberal 	   22%	12%	86%	1%	2.6%	18.9%	0.2%
Moderate 	   45%	41%	57%	1%	18.5%	25.7%	0.5%
Conservative   33%	82%	16%	1%	27.1%	5.3%	0.3%

	         100%				48.2%	49.9%	1.0%
							
........................................................			


RELIGION	Vert. 	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Protestant	   53%	56%	43%	1%	29.7%	22.8%	0.5%
Catholic 	   27%	49%	50%	1%	13.2%	13.5%	0.3%
Jewish	          3%   23%	77%	0%	0.7%	2.3%	0.0%
Other 	          7%	20%	75%	4%	1.4%	5.3%	0.3%
None 	         10%	29%	70%	1%	3.2%	7.7%	0.1%

	         100%				48.2%	51.6%	1.2%
							
........................................................										

MILITARY	Vert. 	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Yes 	         18%	55%	43%	1%	9.9%	7.7%	0.2%
No 	         82%	46%	53%	1%	37.7%	43.5%	0.8%

	         100%				47.6%	51.2%	1.0%
							
........................................................										

WHEN DECIDED	Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Today 	       6%	40%	53%	5%	2.4%	3.2%	0.3%
Last3 Days 	   3%	41%	53%	4%	1.2%	1.6%	0.1%
Last Week 	   2%	51%	48%	1%	1.0%	1.0%	0.0%
Last Month 	  10%	38%	60%	1%	3.8%	6.0%	0.1%
Before That 	 79%	50%	50%	0%	39.5%	39.5%	0.0%

	       100%				48.0%	51.2%	0.5%

........................................................			

MOST IMPORTANT 
ISSUE	     Vert.    Bush 	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Taxes 	          5%	   53%	47%	0%	2.7%	2.4%	0.0%
Education 	   4%	   24%	75%	0%	1.0%	3.0%	0.0%
Iraq 	         15%   23%	76%	1%	3.5%	11.4%	0.2%
Terrorism 	  18%	   85%	15%	1%	15.3%	2.7%	0.2%
Economy/Jobs   20%	   16%	82%	1%	3.2%	16.4%	0.2%
Moral Values 	 21%	   78%	19%	3%	16.4%	4.0%	0.6%
Health Care 	  8%	   20%	79%	0%	1.6%	6.3%	0.0%

	           100%      			47.9%	50.8%	1.3%


........................................................										
							
REGION	       Vert.	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
East	      22%	41%	58%	1%	9.0%	12.8%	0.2%
Midwest        25%	49%	50%	1%	12.3%	12.5%	0.3%
South	      31%	54%	44%	1%	16.7%	13.6%	0.3%
West	      22%	45%	53%	1%	9.5%	11.1%	0.2%

	      100%				 47.5%	50.0%	1.0%

........................................................			

WEIGHTED SUMMARY
CATEGORY    Bush	Kerry	Nader

GENDER	      48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
EDUCATION     48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
INCOME	      48.12%	51.42%	0.95%

RACE	      47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
AGE	      48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
PARTYID      48.24%	50.24%	0.90%

IDEOLOGY	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
RELIGION	48.19%	51.55%	1.19%
MILITARY	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%

DECIDED     47.95%	51.23%   0.54%
ISSUES      47.92%     50.80%   1.28%

AVERAGE     48.00%     50.80%	 1.00%

The Party ID was 38/35, not 38/36.
This is the number they are fudging.

It makes a big difference.
Kerry wins with 50.69%, not 50.24%.

The odds are astronomical that Bush could end up with 50.73%. 
That's a 3 point move. 

2004 NEP: Dem 38/ Rep 35/ Indep 27: Kerry 50.69%, Bush 47.77% 
 
13,047 respondents,
randomly selected,
1.0% MOE


               HORIZONTAL		WEIGHTED		
PARTY ID	
     MIX	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Rep 	35%	92%	7%	0%	32.2%	2.5%	0.0%
Ind	27%	45%	52%	2%	12.2%	14.0%	0.5%
	100%				47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
				
Probability: Poll(47.77%) to vote (50.73%): 0.00000000329447

         ********* 1 in 303,538,508 ************

Prob = 1 - NORMDIST (.5073,.4777, .01/1.96, TRUE)