The Final Exit Polls: Adjusted to Match the Recorded VoteTruthIsAll http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/MatchingFinalExitPollToTheVote.htm The controversy surrounding the New Hampshire Primary proves once again that the vast majority of Americans are uninformed regarding the exit polls. Final state and national exit poll results presented on corporate media web sites, the television networks, NYT and Washington Post are not the actual raw, unadjusted (“pristine”) results.
The distinction between unadjusted and adjusted (Final) exit poll data is the cause of much confusion and misinformation. CNN has reported the Final New Hampshire Exit Poll results. Now that a recount is going to take place — thanks to Dennis Kucinich — the media should also report the earlier “pristine,” unadjusted Exit Poll results.
The Finals “contaminate” the raw polling data, as they are “adjusted” to force a match to the recorded vote totals. If the vote count is fraudulent, simple logic dictates that the Final Exit Poll does not provide the True Vote, but rather a corrupt one. The demographics would also be wrong.
It’s standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to “force” the state and national Final Exit Polls to match the Recorded Vote — even if it means using impossible weights and implausible vote shares. This procedure assumes a fraud-free election — not exactly a reality-based assumption.
Media pundits and politicians always claim that pre-election and/or early exit polls are wrong, if they don’t match the recorded vote. Few dare mention the possibility of Election Fraud as the cause of the discrepancies. In 2004, the pundits never considered that the recorded votes may have been miscounted and the preliminary exit polls essentially correct. They just accepted that the count was accurate. In so doing, they promoted the myth that the election was fraud-free. They also believed that the final exit poll results were confirmed by the vote count.
They dismissed the accuracy of the early exit polls, claiming they were not designed to predict the True Vote, only to provide a demographic snapshot of the electorate. But if that’s the case, and the recorded vote count is corrupted, then so are the demographics. They never did the analysis which would have proved that the adjusted Final NEP weights were impossible and that the adjusted vote shares were implausible. If they had, they would have come to the same conclusion as the spreadsheet-wielding bloggers — that the election was most-likely stolen (view the spreadsheet analysis below).
There is sufficient evidence to suggest that the 2004 and 2006 elections were fraudulent. Since the final state and national exit polls were forced to match the official results, a serious analyst needs to focus on changes in vote shares and weights from the unadjusted, “pristine” exit polls to the adjusted, “contaminated” final.
- In 2004 John Kerry held a steady 51–48% lead throughout the National Exit Poll timeline:
at 4pm (8349 respondents); 7:30pm (11027); 12:22am (13047) — after the polls closed. But of course Bush won the Final NEP by 51–48% (13660 respondents). The Final was posted the day after the election and was “forced” to match the Recorded Vote count by using impossible weights and implausible vote shares.
The 12:22am NEP “Voted 2000” category indicated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 41% of the 2004 electorate; Gore voters 39% — and Kerry was a 51–48% winner. But in the Final NEP, the weights were adjusted to 43% and 37%, respectively — and Bush won by 51–48%. The 4% increase in the spread between Gore and Bush voters was a major component of the reversal.
- In the 2006 midterms the 7pm NEP “Voted 2004” Bush/Kerry weights were changed from 47/45 to 49/43 in the Final. Once again — just like in 2004 — the exit pollsters had to match the vote count by increasing the spread by 4%! This had a major effect in reducing the Democratic margin — from 55–43% at 7pm to 52–46% in the Final .
The Democratic Tsunami gained 31 congressional seats. But they actually did much better than that. A regression trend analysis of 120 pre-election Generic polls (all won by the Democrats) projected they would win by 56–42% and gain over 40 seats. The 7pm National Exit Poll confirmed the pre-election trend. But the next day, the Final NEP was — once again — forced to match a corrupted vote count with implausible weights and vote shares. The Democratic margin was cut in half. The fraud resulted in the loss of 10-20 seats.
The State Exit Poll Aggregate TimelineEdison-Mitofsky provided four aggregate state exit poll measures.
Kerry won the first three;
Bush won the Final:
- 1) WPE 51.8 — 47.2% (unadjusted)
- 2) GEO 51.0 — 48.5% (adjusted to incoming recorded votes)
- 3) Composite 50.3 — 49.1% (12:22am — adjusted to pre-election polls)
- 4) Final 48.5 — 51.1% (matched to recorded vote)
WPE is the only
unadjusted (“pristine”) measure. It was based on the average discrepancy between the exit poll result and recorded vote for all state precincts which were polled. Measures (2) and (3) are
adjusted estimates which incorporate pre-election polls and recorded votes.
The final state exit polls were forced to match the recorded votes, therefore implying ZERO election fraud. Why should we believe them? And why bother doing exit polls at all, if they will just assume that the recorded vote count was the True Vote? Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates
Recorded Vote
WPE (Within Precinct Error)
Best GEO
Composite
12:40 am
Kerry Bush Margin EV
Kerry Bush Margin WPE EV
Kerry Bush Margin Error EV
Kerry Bush Margin Error EV
Tot 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 51.84 47.18 4.66 7.11 324 51.04 48.49 2.56 5.01 301 50.26 49.11 1.15 3.60 288
AL 36.8 62.5 (25.6) 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 11.3 42.0 57.5 (15.5) 10.1 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 7.5
AK 35.5 61.1 (25.5) 40.3 56.3 (15.9) 9.6 41.2 57.4 (16.2) 9.3 39.0 58.8 (19.8) 5.7
AZ 44.4 54.9 (10.5) 46.7 52.6 (5.9) 4.6 46.5 53.5 (7.0) 3.5 46.8 53.2 (6.4) 4.1
AR 44.5 54.3 (9.8) 44.8 54.1 (9.3) 0.5 46.8 52.4 (5.6) 4.2 47.0 52.2 (5.2) 4.6
CA 54.3 44.4 9.9 55 59.8 38.9 20.8 10.9 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55 56.5 43.5 13.0 3.1 55
CO 47.0 51.7 (4.7) 50.1 48.6 1.4 6.1 9 47.0 52.5 (5.5) (0.8) 47.7 51.4 (3.7) 1.0
CT 54.3 43.9 10.4 7 62.2 36.1 26.1 15.7 7 59.3 39.6 19.7 9.3 7 58.1 40.5 17.6 7.2 7
DE 53.3 45.8 7.6 3 61.3 37.8 23.5 15.9 3 61.5 37.9 23.6 16.0 3 57.7 41.2 16.5 8.9 3
DC 89.2 9.3 79.8 3 90.9 7.6 83.2 3.4 3 91.1 8.1 83.0 3.2 3 90.2 8.4 81.8 2.0 3
FL 47.1 52.1 (5.0) 50.9 48.3 2.6 7.6 27 49.2 50.3 (1.1) 3.9 49.3 50.1 (0.8) 4.2
GA 41.4 58.0 (16.6) 42.5 56.9 (14.4) 2.2 43.5 56.5 (13.0) 3.6 43.0 57.1 (14.1) 2.5
HI 54.0 45.3 8.7 4 56.4 42.9 13.4 4.7 4 56.5 43.4 13.1 4.4 4 53.6 46.4 7.2 (1.5) 4
ID 30.3 68.4 (38.1) 30.8 67.9 (37.1) 1.0 30.9 69.1 (38.2) (0.1) 31.6 68.3 (36.7) 1.4
IL 54.8 44.5 10.3 21 57.0 42.3 14.7 4.4 21 57.5 42.6 14.9 4.6 21 57.0 42.9 14.1 3.8 21
IN 39.3 59.9 (20.7) 40.0 59.2 (19.2) 1.5 40.5 59.6 (19.1) 1.6 41.3 58.8 (17.5) 3.2
IA 49.2 49.9 (0.7) 50.7 48.4 2.3 3.0 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7 50.0 49.0 1.0 1.7 7
KS 36.6 62.0 (25.4) 37.5 61.2 (23.7) 1.7 36.6 62.8 (26.2) (0.8) 34.4 64.6 (30.2) (4.8)
KY 39.7 59.6 (19.9) 39.6 59.6 (20.0) (0.1) 40.6 58.6 (18.0) 1.9 40.9 58.3 (17.4) 2.5
LA 42.2 56.7 (14.5) 44.1 54.8 (10.7) 3.8 43.2 56.3 (13.1) 1.4 44.3 54.8 (10.5) 4.0
ME 53.6 44.6 9.0 4 55.5 42.7 12.8 3.8 4 54.3 44.6 9.7 0.7 4 53.9 44.4 9.5 0.5 4
MD 55.9 42.9 13.0 10 60.0 38.9 21.1 8.1 10 59.4 39.7 19.7 6.7 10 56.6 42.5 14.1 1.1 10
MA 61.9 36.8 25.2 12 64.8 33.9 31.0 5.8 12 66.3 33.6 32.7 7.5 12 65.7 34.2 31.5 6.3 12
MI 51.2 47.8 3.4 17 54.4 44.7 9.7 6.3 17 51.8 47.3 4.5 1.1 17 51.9 47.1 4.8 1.4 17
MN 51.1 47.6 3.5 9 55.7 43.0 12.8 9.3 9 56.7 42.4 14.3 10.8 9 53.7 44.9 8.8 5.3 9
MS 40.2 59.0 (18.9) 45.8 53.4 (7.6) 11.3 46.2 53.2 (7.0) 11.9 43.4 56.0 (12.6) 6.3
MO 46.1 53.3 (7.2) 49.0 50.4 (1.4) 5.8 47.8 52.2 (4.4) 2.8 47.8 52.1 (4.3) 2.9
MT 38.6 59.1 (20.5) 37.7 60.0 (22.3) (1.8) 37.8 59.9 (22.1) (1.6) 37.2 60.0 (22.8) (2.3)
NE 32.7 65.9 (33.2) 36.7 61.8 (25.1) 8.1 37.5 61.7 (24.2) 9.0 36.1 62.6 (26.5) 6.7
NV 47.9 50.5 (2.6) 52.9 45.4 7.5 10.1 5 49.3 47.9 1.4 4.0 5 48.9 48.3 0.6 3.2 5
NH 50.2 48.9 1.4 4 57.0 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 57.1 42.1 15.0 13.6 4 55.1 43.9 11.2 9.8 4
NJ 52.9 46.2 6.7 15 57.8 41.4 16.4 9.7 15 58.4 40.2 18.2 11.5 15 55.3 42.8 12.5 5.8 15
NM 49.0 49.8 (0.8) 52.9 45.9 7.0 7.8 5 51.7 47.5 4.2 5.0 5 50.8 48.0 2.8 3.6 5
NY 58.4 40.1 18.3 31 64.1 34.4 29.7 11.4 31 65.1 33.8 31.3 13.0 31 63.1 35.5 27.6 9.3 31
NC 43.6 56.0 (12.4) 49.2 50.4 (1.1) 11.3 48.2 51.8 (3.6) 8.8 48.1 51.9 (3.8) 8.6
ND 35.5 62.9 (27.4) 32.9 65.5 (32.6) (5.2) 32.3 66.7 (34.4) (7.0) 33.3 64.9 (31.6) (4.2)
OH 48.7 50.8 (2.1) 54.2 45.4 8.8 10.9 20 53.2 46.7 6.5 8.6 20 51.7 48.3 3.4 5.5 20
OK 34.4 65.6 (31.1) 33.5 66.5 (33.0) (1.9) 34.1 65.8 (31.7) (0.6) 34.6 65.4 (30.8) 0.3
OR 51.3 47.2 4.2 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 53.0 47.0 6.0 1.8 7 50.3 47.9 2.4 (1.8) 7
PA 50.9 48.4 2.5 21 55.3 44.0 11.3 8.8 21 56.9 43.1 13.8 11.3 21 54.2 45.7 8.5 6.0 21
RI 59.4 38.7 20.8 4 61.8 36.3 25.5 4.7 4 62.4 36.3 26.1 5.3 4 63.2 34.9 28.3 7.5 4
SC 40.9 58.0 (17.1) 45.9 53.0 (7.1) 10.0 46.4 52.4 (6.0) 11.1 45.1 53.8 (8.7) 8.4
SD 38.4 59.9 (21.5) 36.3 62.0 (25.7) (4.2) 34.9 63.2 (28.3) (6.8) 36.8 61.5 (24.7) (3.2)
TN 42.5 56.8 (14.3) 42.8 56.5 (13.8) 0.5 40.3 58.5 (18.2) (3.9) 41.3 57.6 (16.3) (2.0)
TX 38.2 61.1 (22.9) 40.6 58.7 (18.1) 4.8 36.5 63.5 (27.0) (4.1) 37.1 62.9 (25.8) (2.9)
UT 26.0 71.5 (45.5) 29.2 68.3 (39.1) 6.4 29.9 69.2 (39.3) 6.2 29.9 68.3 (38.4) 7.1
VT 58.9 38.8 20.1 3 66.4 31.3 35.1 15.0 3 67.0 30.4 36.6 16.5 3 64.5 32.8 31.7 11.6 3
VA 45.5 53.7 (8.2) 49.4 49.7 (0.3) 7.9 50.2 49.7 0.5 8.7 13 48.0 51.9 (3.9) 4.3
WA 52.8 45.6 7.2 11 57.0 41.4 15.6 8.4 11 54.9 44.2 10.7 3.5 11 54.1 44.6 9.5 2.3 11
WV 43.2 56.1 (12.9) 40.3 59.0 (18.7) (5.8) 41.6 57.4 (15.8) (2.9) 44.9 54.2 (9.3) 3.6
WI 49.7 49.3 0.4 10 52.0 47.0 5.1 4.7 10 52.5 46.8 5.7 5.3 10 49.6 49.2 0.4 0.0 10
WY 29.1 68.9 (39.8) 31.2 66.7 (35.5) 4.3 34.5 63.6 (29.1) 10.7 31.6 66.4 (34.8) 5.0
The National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) by a 4.6 million vote margin.
Bush won the 2pm Final National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by a 3.2 million vote margin.
Final recorded vote (mil.)
Kerry Bush Other
59.03 62.04 1.23
48.27% 50.73% 1.01%
National Exit Poll — ‘Voted 2000’ Category
Timeline Summary
NEP Sample Poll Kerry Vote
Timeline Size MoE Share Margin
3:59pm 8349 1.29% 51.01% 4.96 million
7:38pm 11027 1.12% 50.90% 4.66
12:22am 13047 1.03% 51.41% 4.63
Final 13660 1.01% 48.48% -3.22
8349 Respondents
11/02 3:59pm Vote Shares Votes (in millions)
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 18.34 15% 62% 37% 1% 11.37 6.79 0.18
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 51.35 42% 9% 90% 0% 4.62 46.22 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 61% 12% 16% 2.98 0.59 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 51.01% 46.95% 1.18% 62.37 57.41 1.44
11027 Respondents
11/02 7:38pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 59% 39% 1% 12.26 8.11 0.21
Gore 46.46 38% 91% 8% 1% 42.28 3.72 0.46
Bush 50.13 41% 9% 90% 0% 4.51 45.12 0.00
Other 4.89 4% 65% 13% 16% 3.18 0.64 0.78
Total 122.3 100% 50.90% 47.09% 1.19% 62.24 57.58 1.46
13047 Respondents
11/03 12:22am
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 57% 41% 2% 11.85 8.52 0.42
Gore 47.69 39% 91% 8% 1% 43.39 3.81 0.48
Bush 50.13 41% 10% 90% 0% 5.01 45.12 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 62.86 58.22 1.19
13660 Respondents
11/03 2:05pm
2000 Votes Weight Kerry Bush Other Kerry Bush Other
DNV 20.79 17% 54% 45% 1% 11.22 9.35 0.21
Gore 45.24 37% 90% 10% 0% 40.72 4.52 0.00
Bush 52.58 43% 9% 91% 0% 4.73 47.84 0.00
Other 3.67 3% 71% 21% 8% 2.60 0.77 0.29
Total 122.3 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41% 59.28 62.49 0.50
NEP Demographic Timeline
In order to match the recorded vote in the Final National Exit Poll “How Voted in 2000” category, the exit pollsters had to adjust all category weights and/or vote shares from the 12:22am update (which Kerry won by 51.4-47.6%).
Change: Category Weight and/or Kerry Vote Share
NEP Update 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Weight 3:59pm 7:33pm 12:22am Final Vote
Respondents 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change 8349 11027 13047 13660 Change
Category Weight ( % ) Kerry Vote Share ( % )
GENDER
Male 42 46 46 46 47 47 47 44 -3
Female 58 54 54 54 53 54 54 51 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.48 50.7 50.7 47.78
VOTE (mil) 61.72 62.0 62.0 58.42
REGION
East 23 22 22 22 58 58 58 56 -2
Midwest 25 26 26 26 50 50 50 48 -2
South 31 31 31 32 +1 44 45 45 42 -3
West 21 21 21 20 -1 53 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.61 50.8 50.8 48.24
VOTE (mil) 61.88 62.1 62.1 58.98
PARTY ID
Democrat 39 38 38 37 -1 90 90 90 89 -1
Republican 36 36 35 37 +2 7 7 7 6 -1
Independent 25 26 27 26 -1 52 52 52 49 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.62 50.2 50.6 47.89
VOTE (mil) 61.89 61.4 61.9 58.55
IDEOLOGY
Liberal 22 22 22 21 -1 86 87 86 85 -1
Moderate 45 45 45 45 58 57 57 54 -3
Conservative 33 33 33 34 +1 16 16 16 15 -1
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.3 50.0 49.8 47.25
VOTE (mil) 61.50 61.2 60.9 57.77
VOTED 2000
Did Not Vote 15 17 17 17 62 59 57 54 -3
Gore 39 38 39 37 -2 91 91 91 90 -1
Bush 42 41 41 43 +2 9 9 10 9 -1
Other 4 4 3 3 61 65 71 71
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.01 50.9 51.4 48.48
VOTE (mil) 62.36 62.2 62.8 59.27
WHEN DECIDED
Today 6 6 6 5 -1 52 54 53 52 -1
Last 3 Days 3 3 3 4 +1 50 54 53 55 +2
Last Week 2 2 2 2 48 48 48 48
Last Month 10 10 10 10 61 61 60 54 -6
Over 30 Days 79 79 79 79 50 50 50 46 -4
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.18 51.4 51.2 47.5
VOTE (mil) 62.57 62.8 62.6 58.07
EDUCATION
No High School 4 4 4 4 50 52 52 50 -2
High School Grad 22 22 22 22 50 51 51 47 -4
Some College 30 31 31 32 +1 48 47 47 46 -1
College Grad 26 26 26 26 48 49 48 46 -2
Post Grad 18 17 17 16 -1 58 58 58 55 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.32 50.3 50.2 47.82
VOTE (mil) 61.52 61.5 61.3 58.46
RACE/GENDER
White Male 33 36 36 36 40 41 41 37 -4
White Female 44 41 41 41 47 47 47 44 -3
Non-white Male 10 10 10 10 69 70 69 67 -2
Non-white Female 13 13 13 13 77 77 77 75 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.79 51.0 50.9 47.81
VOTE (mil) 62.10 62.4 62.2 58.45
AGE
18-29 15 17 17 17 56 56 56 54 -2
30-44 27 27 29 29 48 49 49 46 -3
45-59 31 30 30 30 52 51 51 48 -3
60+ 27 26 24 24 48 48 48 46 -2
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.44 50.5 50.2 47.96
VOTE (mil) 61.67 61.7 61.4 58.64
INCOME
0-15k 9 9 9 8 -1 68 66 66 63 -3
15-30 15 15 15 15 59 59 59 57 -2
30-50 22 22 22 22 53 52 52 50 -2
50-75 22 23 23 23 46 45 45 43 -2
75-100 14 13 13 14 +1 49 49 49 45 -4
100-150 11 11 11 11 44 45 45 42 -3
150-200 4 4 4 4 45 47 47 42 -5
200+ 3 3 3 3 40 41 41 35 -6
PCT 100 100 100 100 51.45 51.0 51.0 48.13
VOTE (mil) 62.90 62.3 62.3 58.84
RELIGION
Protestant 53 53 53 53 43 43 43 40 -3
Catholic 27 27 27 27 50 50 50 47 -3
Jewish 3 3 3 3 77 77 77 74 -3
Other 7 7 7 7 76 75 75 74 -1
None 10 10 10 10 69 70 70 67 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.82 50.8 50.8 47.99
VOTE (mil) 62.13 62.1 62.1 58.67
MILITARY EXPERIENCE
Yes 18 18 18 18 43 43 43 41 -2
No 82 82 82 82 52 53 53 50 -3
PCT 100 100 100 100 50.38 51.2 51.2 48.38
VOTE (mil) 61.59 62.60 62.60 59.15
Forcing the Final EXIT POLL to match the Recorded VOTE COUNT
RECORDED COUNT of VOTES
Kerry Bush Other
100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.01%
122.3 59.03 62.04 1.23
NATIONAL EXIT POLL of VOTERS
12:22am Pre (13047 respondents) 2pm Final (13660 respondents)
VOTED2k Weight Kerry Bush Other Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV2k 17% 57% 41% 2% 17% 54% 45% 1%
Gore 39% 91% 8% 1% 37% 90% 10% 0%
Bush 41% 10% 90% 0% 43% 9% 91% 0%
Other 3% 71% 21% 8% 3% 71% 21% 8%
Share 100% 51.41% 47.62% 0.97% 100% 48.48% 51.11% 0.41%
Votes 122.3 62.87 58.24 1.19 122.3 59.29 62.50 0.50
Naysayers were challenged in the Democratic Underground Game Thread to provide a mathematically feasible and plausible Bush win scenario. In order to comply with the rules of the “game,” they had to use feasible weights based on the recorded 2000 and 2004 vote, annual 0.87% mortality rate and estimated 95% turnout of 2000 voters.
They presented a spreadsheet to show a scenario for Bush to achieve his 3 million vote “mandate.” In order to match the recorded vote, they had to adjust the Bush Final NEP vote shares to implausible levels.
The Bush win scenario was based on the following assumptions:
- Kerry won just 52.90% of DNV (new voters and others who did not vote in 2000).
The 12:22am NEP reported 57% (54% in the Final).
- One in 7 (14.63%) Gore 2000 voters defected to Bush in 2004.
The 12:22am NEP reported 8% (10% in the 2pm Final).
- Just 7.20% of Bush 2000 voters defected to Kerry.
The 12:22am NEP reported 10% ( 9% in the Final).
On the other hand, the True Vote model — which used feasible weights and plausible vote shares — determined that Kerry won a 7.7 million vote landslide by 52.6–46.4%. The assumptions were as follows:
- 0.87% annual mortality for 2000 voters (only Gore, Bush and Nader/other 2000 voters still living could vote in 2004)
- 95% turnout of Gore, Bush and Other 2000 voters in 2004
- 125.74mm total votes were cast in 2004 (Census)
- 12:22am NEP vote shares
True Vote Model Bush Win Scenario Assumptions
Pct Kerry Bush Other Pct Kerry Bush Other
DNV 21.49% 57% 41% 2% 21.72% 52.90% 46.50% 0.60%
Gore 38.23% 91% 8% 1% 37.84% 84.83% 14.63% 0.54%
Bush 37.83% 10% 90% 0% 37.44% 7.20% 92.31% 0.49%
Other 2.45% 71% 21% 8% 3.00% 65.90% 18.10% 16.00%
Share 100.0% 52.56% 46.43% 1.01% 100.0% 48.26% 50.74% 1.00%
Votes Kerry Bush Other Votes Kerry Bush Other
DNV 27.02 15.40 11.08 0.54 26.56 14.05 12.35 0.16
Gore 48.07 43.74 3.85 0.48 46.28 39.26 6.77 0.25
Bush 47.57 4.76 42.81 0.00 45.79 3.30 42.27 0.22
Other 3.08 2.19 0.65 0.25 3.67 2.42 0.66 0.59
Total 125.74 66.09 58.38 1.27 122.30 59.02 62.05 1.22
Which scenario are we to believe: the implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate or the mathematically impossible Bush 43 / Gore 37 weights? Was the exit poll match to the recorded vote based on:
- a) plausible 37.84 Gore / 37.44% Bush weights and an implausible 14.63% Gore defection rate, or
- b) IMPOSSIBLE Bush 43 / Gore 37 weights and a plausible (8-10%) Gore defection rate?
Because the 43 Bush/ 37 Gore weights contradicted the debunked reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis, the naysayers needed to come up with another explanation. They cited a post-election NES 600-sample survey to account for the impossible Final Bush/Gore weights. But they wanted to have it both ways: On the one hand, they said the 43/37 weights were legitimate exit poll samples in which Gore voters misstated their vote; but they contradicted that when they used feasible weights applied to an implausible 14.6% Gore defection rate. But it was a very weak argument, because it implied that 6.6% of Gore voters (8.6% over the 12:22am NEP defection rate) misrepresented their vote when they told the exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000.
They said the reason for the mass defection of Gore voters was due to a long-term bandwagon effect: former Gore voters wanted to associate with the “winner”, Bush. But “false recall” is not a plausible explanation since a) Gore won by 540,000 votes, b) according to the pristine 12:22am NEP, Kerry captured 91% of Gore voters and 10% of Bush voters, c) Bush had a 48.5% approval rating on Election Day, d) false recall is not applicable to pre-election polls and e) the pre-election polls matched the exit polls.
Why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? Even if returning Gore voters lied about their vote in 2000, it’s irrelevant. What is relevant is a) their factual 2000 recorded Gore vote and b) that 91% said they just voted for Kerry. We use this factual data to compute feasible and plausible weights by adjusting the 2000 recorded vote for mortality and estimated 2004 turnout.
False recall cannot be used as an explanation to explain the other demographic weightings. In the 12:22am NEP, 13047 respondents were asked who they just voted for – and Kerry won. But only 3200 respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. Kerry must have also won the 10,000 who were not asked how they voted in 2000. This fact alone totally contradicts the “false recall” argument. Why would respondents lie to the exit pollsters and claim to have voted for Kerry, if they voted for Bush? Did they also lie about their gender? Kerry won the Gender demographic by 50.78–48.22%.
GENDER Weight Kerry Bush Other
Male 46% 47% 52% 1%
Female 54% 54% 45% 1%
What is relevant is who the exit poll respondents said they just voted for in 2004 — and 91% said Kerry. The 2000 and 2004 recorded vote and annual mortality rate are historical demographic facts. They are necessary and sufficient to determine the maximum number of Bush and Gore voters who could have voted in 2004. The final realistic, plausible weighting is just the ratio of 2000 voter turnout to total 2004 recorded vote. The weights multiplied by the corresponding exit poll vote shares determine the national share. Therefore, the only exit poll response which matters is the answer to the question: Who did you vote for in 2004? It follows that even if "false recall" were a factor, it is irrelevant. Voters do not falsely recall who they just voted for five minutes earlier. What would be their motivation to lie? Survey responses are confidential.
Calculates the True Vote using historical voting and mortality data, plausible NEP vote shares, and assumed 2000 voter turnout in 2004
Historical data:
1) Census: 125.7m votes cast in 2004 vs. 122.3m recorded; 3.4m (2.74%) uncounted
2) Census: 110.8m votes cast in 2000 vs. 105.4m recorded; 5.4m (4.86%) uncounted
3) Annual voter mortality: 1.22% (4.88% over 4 years)
Assumptions:
1) 12:22am NEP vote shares
2) 2000 voter turnout in 2004: 95%
3) 75% of uncounted votes to Gore and Kerry 2000 Recorded
Voted Recd Unctd Cast Died Alive
Gore 51.00 4.04 55.04 2.72 52.32
Bush 50.46 1.08 51.53 2.48 49.06
Other 3.96 0.27 4.23 0.21 4.02
Total 105.42 5.38 110.8 5.41 105.39
2004 Calculated
Turnout Voted Weight Kerry Bush Other
DNV - 25.61 20.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 95% 49.70 39.5% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 95% 46.60 37.1% 10% 90% 0%
Other 95% 3.82 3.0% 64% 17% 19%
Total 100.1 125.7 100% 53.23% 45.39% 1.38%
66.94 57.07 1.74
Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll
To derive an approximation to the TRUE vote for all demographics, the 7pm NEP vote shares and weights were adjusted to match a 57.8–40.2% Wikipedia Democratic vote margin. The base case assumptions were: a) 4.0% of Democratic votes and 1.4% of Republican/other votes were uncounted and b) 7% of Democratic votes were switched to the Republicans.
The TRUE 16% Democratic margin was based on the 120-Generic poll linear trend which was confirmed in the Wikipedia early vote count. It has always been the case that millions of ballots, mostly Democratic, are never counted. In this election, uncounted ballots accounted for less than half of the total discrepancy. The major fraud factor was vote-switching at the polling place and/or the central tabulator. The analysis does not include the millions of disenfranchised voters (mostly Democratic) who never got to the polls. The Generic LV pre-election polls, as one-sided as they were, low-balled the intended Democratic vote.
In both the 7:07pm and Final 1:00pm Exit Polls, the results were adjusted to obtain an estimated TRUE vote. For each demographic, switched vote rates were applied to final vote shares to determine pre-switch shares. Uncounted votes were subtracted from the 7:07pm exit poll result. Unlike the Final, the 7:07pm poll was NOT matched to the vote count. Uncounted and switched vote shares were added back to the Final, since it was contaminated in matching to the vote count.
The theoretical Intended Vote is given by:
IV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched + Disenfranchised
The True Vote is given by:
TV = Recorded + Uncounted + Switched
National Exit Poll
Source Dem Rep Other
CNN-7pm 55.2% 43.4% 1.5%
CNN-Final 52.2% 45.9% 2.5%
NYT 53.1% 44.9% 2.0%
Reported National Vote
Wikipedia 57.7% 41.8% 0.5%
CBS- Nat 52.7% 45.1% 2.2%
CBS-State 51.3% 46.4% 2.3%
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem Share = 46.98% + .0419x
Rep Share = 38.06% + .0047x
Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:
Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem = 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep = 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%
National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote
(based on the Generic Poll Trend)
VOTED 2004
-------- 7:07pm --------- ---------- Final -------- --- True Generic Vote ---
MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other MIX Dem Rep Other
Kerry 45% 93% 6% 1% 43% 92% 7% 1% 49% 93% 6% 1%
Bush 47% 17% 82% 1% 49% 15% 83% 2% 46% 17% 82% 1%
Other 4% 67% 23% 10% 4% 66% 23% 11% 1% 67% 23% 10%
DNV 4% 67% 30% 3% 4% 66% 32% 2% 4% 67% 30% 3%
TOTAL 100% 55.2% 43.4% 1.4% 100% 52.2% 45.9% 1.9% 100% 56.7% 42.1% 1.2%
Democratic Vote Share Sensitivity to NEP “How Voted in 2004” Weights
National Exit Poll (7pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
7pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 53.7% 54.4% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.2% 59.0% 59.8%
Final National Exit Poll (1pm)
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 4%
1pm
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44% 43% 42% 41%
Dem 52.2% 53.0% 53.7% 54.5% 55.3% 56.0% 56.8% 57.6% 58.4%
True Vote
Weight: DNV 4%; Other 1%
True
Kerry 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51%
Bush 52% 51% 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
Dem 52.2% 52.9% 53.7% 54.5% 55.2% 56.0% 56.7% 57.5% 58.3%
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