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Bradblog refuted by Prof. Mebane, U of Mich - - NH vote subset study results below

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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 10:38 AM
Original message
Bradblog refuted by Prof. Mebane, U of Mich - - NH vote subset study results below
Using a subset of New Hampshire wards that have similar demographic
features and voting histories but differ in their vote tabulating
technology, we find no significant relationship between a ward's use of vote
tabulating technology and the votes or vote shares received by most of the
leading candidates who competed in the 2008 New Hampshire Presidential
Primaries. Among Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Kucinich and Richardson in the
Democratic primary and Giuliani, Huckabee, Paul, Romney and McCain in the
Republican primary, we observe a significant difference only in the votes
counted for Edwards, and that difference is small (a deficit of between 0.6
and 3.4 percent in the hand-counted votes).

With respect to Hillary Clinton's surprise victory in the Democratic
Primary and the differences across vote tabulation technologies in
Clinton's, Obama's and others' support, our results are consistent with the
differences being due entirely to the fact that New Hampshire wards that use
Accuvote optical scan machines have voters with different political
preferences than wards that use hand counted paper ballots.

Data and program files to support replication should be ready (and posted on my webpage) in a day or so.

Walter
--
Walter R. Mebane, Jr. email: wmebane@umich.edu
Professor office voice: 734/763-2220
Department of Political Science cell: 607/592-0546
Department of Statistics fax: 734/764-3522
University of Michigan WWW: http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane

If anyone wants to challenge his math, don't post to me - just email him and he will respond I am sure - or download the data from his web page next week.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 10:52 AM
Response to Original message
1. NO Surprises in this finding.
There were people making a lot of smoke before the vote, so screaming FIRE was totally expected.

Hopefully, this did not all happen because a real fire is planned!
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Ellipsis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 10:55 AM
Response to Original message
2. You forgot the bold type.
Edited on Sat Jan-19-08 11:06 AM by btmlndfrmr
There's a working copy(pdf) of his study posted on his website now. This report has nothing to with Brad as I think the sentiment here in ER has Nothing to do with Hillary/Obama as much as to whether or not they were "Muskie'd".

It does however articulate what most likely happened in NH.... that is more then welcome.

K&R
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
3. and never mind that 15% vote discrepency in ward 5 or the hundreds of unread ballots due to wrong
ink.

no problems in our voting process we dont need publicly owned vote tabulation machines nor a transparent and verifiable process.

We need to put absolute unverified and unaudited trust in these privately owned companies with their propietary software and hardware to count our votes...

dont buy for one minute the idea that every vote is sacred or democracy is sham crap that david cobb spewed out..
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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jan-19-08 08:25 PM
Response to Original message
4. How is Bradblog refuted? I don't think he said anything more than that the results were suspicious.
Am I missing something?

I think what Bradblog is worried about is not having a democracy.

Maybe you haven't given it much thought, but it seems to me, and I suspect Bradblog would agree, that when the vote is counted in secret by private companies without verification, this is NOT A DEMOCRACY.

Does Prof Mebane propose to refute that statement? I think that's the only thing that Bradblog would wholeheartedly concur with.

However, I applaud the doctor for his proficiency with statistics and his use of statistics to study the demographics of the primary. The more statisticians of high quality the better!
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yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 06:50 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. I tend to disagree.
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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #5
8. Here's a quote from Brad from the link you gave. Please read it carefully:
The results might well be right. But unlike the transparent and verifiable polls, no human being has actually bothered to count or even examine 80% of the ballots in NH. So whose the irresponsible crackpot here? Some of these folks are digging their own November.

"THE RESULTS MIGHT WELL BE RIGHT" Does this sound like Brad is claiming that the results are definitely wrong and that the wrong person has been awarded the votes?

He's saying that the irresponsible crackpot is the one who refuses to see that we need to actually hand count the votes.

This is not difficult to see.
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yowzayowzayowza Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. Itz also not difficult to see that...
far "more than that the results were suspicious" wuz said in that link.
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dailykoff Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 08:31 AM
Response to Original message
6. How odd. A 22-page, multiple author, perfectly typeset article
Edited on Sun Jan-20-08 08:50 AM by dailykoff
complete with notes, figures, tables, executive summary, and reference list, and it's all finished and ready to roll just ten days after the election, before the recount is even complete? And what do you know, the learned professors decide there's nothing to see here:

It is plausible that most or all of the observed differences between vote tabulation technologies in the votes candidates received reflect such background differences and not anything inherent in the tabulation methods.

Such a relief to know that the hand-picked candidate of the MIC really did pull off a surprise "win" despite her 3rd-place showing in Iowa and despite the consensus of pre-election polling!

As to the amazing speed with which three collaborating authors -- at three different universities, U Mich, Dartmouth, and Stanford -- initiated, researched, tabulated, drafted, revised, and posted their analysis, I saw the exact same phenomenon right after 911. Two weeks later learned shills from MIT were rolling out completely preposterous reassurances, decked out in full academic regalia, which were duly trumpeted by every possible media outlet. In fact they're still rolling them out, and they're still preposterous.

Executive summary: this stinks.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. wow -- I will pass along that substantive critique
Edited on Sun Jan-20-08 03:13 PM by OnTheOtherHand
ROFL.

ETA: Remind me, just how long did it take some people to decide that there was fraud in New Hampshire?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. Repeating a falsehood does not make it true....
Please point to the people who decided there was fraud in new hampshire. Most people around here who are concerned about NH merely do not think it is appropriate for votes to be counted in secret by a private corporation on machines which are known to be hackable. How hard is this to understand?
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #9
15. oh, get off it
Edited on Mon Jan-21-08 09:37 AM by OnTheOtherHand
I never said that "(m)ost people around here" had decided there was fraud in NH. You're just looking for a fight. Or if you really think that no one decided there was fraud in NH, you're just wrong.

ETA: Fer instance, I can't be bothered to poke around in the DU archives, but here's a piece on OpEdNews called "New Hampshire Election Fraud," which begins,
I knew it, I knew it, I knew it................I knew it HAD to be election fraud.........let the election season fraud begin.

It appears to have been posted at 11:16 AM the morning after the primary.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. I am not looking for a fight... just annoyed at the misrepresentation....
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 03:37 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. WHAT misrepresentation?
You came in out of left field to criticize me for saying something I never said. And you think you're annoyed?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. Given that you have deleted most of the post that started this convo...
You are hardly in a position to take the high ground.

It is misrepresentation to claim that Brad and others claimed there was fraud in NH.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 03:34 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. say what?!
What do you mean, I "have deleted most of the post that started this convo"? I haven't deleted a damn thing. I made two additions (that's what ETA means).

Are you trying to BS your way out of this, or are you hallucinating, or what? Goodness.

You know damn well that some people claim there was fraud in New Hampshire, and if you don't, you can discuss it with the mods, who would be happy to set you straight. I'm responsible for what I post, not for what papau posts.
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dailykoff Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 06:48 AM
Response to Reply #7
14. I'm simply pointing out that the speedy appearance
of this highly carpentered concoction is suspicious as hell. Academics are notoriously slow and methodical writers and usually vet their work at several levels before publishing it, even on the web, and collaborations require additional coordination (mailing backing and forth etc.)

I'm also very curious as to how the original poster, a Hillary partisan, happened across this article in the first place.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 09:30 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. huh?
What in hell is a "highly carpentered concoction"?

It took Steve Freeman no more than 8 days to distribute the first version of "The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy." Was that also "suspicious as hell"?

Mebane, Wand and Herron have been doing election forensics for at least several years now, and Wand and Herron wrote an extensive paper on NH 2004. There's no substantive reason that they would have to spend more time to release a working paper. (No doubt it would be more polished if they spent longer on it, as they will.)

Basically, it looks like you are looking for excuses to avoid reading the paper. None required. You could just ignore it. But if you want to attaack the authors instead, well, it's an interesting choice.
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #7
23. Edited on Sun Jan-20-08 08:13 PM by OnTheOtherHand
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troubleinwinter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. The edit was made one minute after the post, and noted by the poster. WTF is your point?
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althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-20-08 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. I agree...
It is somewhat remarkable that these authors are throwing away the caution of waiting for the recount results. Normally crystal ball gazing is the domain of folks like us... not professors.
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 12:05 AM
Response to Original message
11. I would like to know..
what the Professor thinks about studies such as the ones listed below that document the need to audit the results of every election conducted with all systems of voting. And why should anyone trust the results of any election using these systems of voting?

Brennan Center For Justice AT NYU School of Law
THE MACHINERY OF DEMOCRACY:
PROTECTING ELECTIONS
IN AN ELECTRONIC WORLD
BRENNAN CENTER TASK FORCE
ON VOTING SYSTEM SECURITY,
LAWRENCE NORDEN, CHAIR
http://brennan.3cdn.net/a56eba8edf74e9e12e_r2m6b86s2.pdf



Security Analysis of the Diebold AccuBasic Interpreter
David Wagner David Jefferson Matt Bishop
Voting Systems Technology Assessment Advisory Board (VSTAAB)

with the assistance of:
Chris Karlof Naveen Sastry
University of California, Berkeley
February 14, 2006

Memory card attacks are a real threat: We determined that anyone who has access to a
memory card of the AV-OS, and can tamper it (i.e. modify its contents), and can have
the modi ed cards used in a voting machine during election, can indeed modify the election
results from that machine in a number of ways. The fact that the the results are incorrect
cannot be detected except by a recount of the original paper ballots.
 Harri Hursti's attack does work: Mr. Hursti's attack on the AV-OS is de nitely real. He was
indeed able to change the election results by doing nothing more than modifying the contents
of a memory card. He needed no passwords, no cryptographic keys, and no access to any
other part of the voting system, including the GEMS election management server.
 Interpreter bugs lead to another, more dangerous family of vulnerabilities: However, there is
another category of more serious vulnerabilities we discovered that go well beyond what Mr.
Hursti demonstrated, and yet require no more access to the voting system than he had. These
vulnerabilities are consequences of bugs|16 in all|in the implementation of the AccuBasic
interpreter for the AV-OS. These bugs would have no e ect at all in the absence of deliberate
tampering, and would not be discovered by any amount of functionality testing; but they
could allow an attacker to completely control the behavior of the AV-OS. An attacker could
change vote totals, modify reports, change the names of candidates, change the races being
voted on, or insert his own code into the running rmware of the machine.
 Successful attacks can only be detected by examining the paper ballots: There would be no
way to know that any of these attacks occurred; the canvass procedure would not detect any
anomalies, and would just produce incorrect results. The only way to detect and correct the
problem would be by recount of the original paper ballots, e.g. during the 1 percent manual
recount.

 The bugs are classic, and can only be found by source code review: Finding these bugs was only
possible through close study of the source code. All of them are classic security flaws, including
bu er overruns, array bounds violations, double-free errors, format string vulnerabilities, and
several others. There may, of course, be additional bugs, or kinds of bugs, that we did not find.
---------------------------------------------

Impact. The consequence of these vulnerabilities is that any person with unsupervised access to
a memory card for sucient time to modify it, or who is in a position to switch a malicious memory
card for a good one, has the opportunity to completely compromise the integrity of the electronic
tallies from the machine using that card.
Many of these vulnerabilities allow the attacker to seize control of the machine. In particular,
they can be used to replace some of the software and the rmware on the machine with code of
the attacker's choosing. At that point, the voting system is no longer running the code from the
vendor, but is instead running illegitimate code from the attacker. Once the attacker can replace
the running code of the machine, the attacker has full control over all operation of the machine.
Some of the consequences of this kind of compromise could include:
could be performed at any point during the day. They could be performed selectively, based
on knowledge about running tallies during the day. For instance, the attack code could wait
until the end of the day, look at the electronic tallies accumulated so far, and choose to modify
them only if they are not consistent with the attacker's desired outcome.
 The attack could print fraudulent zero reports and summary reports to prevent detection.
 The attack could modify the contents of the memory card in any way, including tampering
with the electronic vote counts and electronic ballot images stored on the card.
 The attack could erase all traces of the attack to prevent anyone from detecting the attack
after the fact. For instance, once the attack code has gained control, it could overwrite
the malicious AccuBasic object code (.abo le) stored on the memory card with legitimate
AccuBasic object code, so that no amount of subsequent forensic investigation will uncover
any evidence of the compromise.
 It is even conceivable that there is a way to exploit these vulnerabilities so that changes could
persist from one election to another. For instance, if the rmware or software resident on
the machine can be modi ed or updated by running code, then the attack might be able to
modify the rmware or software in a permanent way, a ecting future elections as well as the
current election. In other words, these vulnerabilities mean that a procedural lapse in one
election could potentially a ect the integrity of a subsequent election. However, we would
not be able to verify or refute this possibility without experimentation with real systems.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
It is conceivable that the attack might be able to propagate from machine to machine, like a
computer virus. For instance, if an uninfected memory card is inserted into an infected voting
machine, then the compromised voting machine could replace the AccuBasic object code on
that memory card with a malicious AccuBasic script. At that point, the memory card has
been infected, and if it is ever inserted into a second uninfected machine, the second machine
will become infected as soon as it runs the AccuBasic script.
------------------------------------------

In addition, most of the bugs we found could be used to crash the machine. This might
disenfranchise voters or cause long lines. These bugs could be used to selectively trigger a crash only on some machines, in some geographic areas, or based on certain conditions, such as which
candidate has received more votes. For instance, it would be possible to write a malicious AccuBasic script so that, when the operator prints a summary report at the end of the day, the script examines the vote counters and either crashes or continues operating normally according to which candidate is in the lead.
Unfortunately, the ability of malicious AccuBasic scripts to crash the machine is currently embedded in the architecture of the interpreter. Any in nite loop in the AccuBasic script immediately translates into an in nite loop in the interpreter (which causes the machine to stop responding, and is indistinguishable from a crash), and any in nite recursion in the AccuBasic script translates into stack over row in the interpreter (which could corrupt stack memory or crash the machine).
http://www.votetrustusa.org/pdfs/California_Folder/DieboldReport.pdf


http://itpolicy.princeton.edu/voting/
Security Analysis of the Diebold AccuVote-TS Voting Machine
Executive Summary
Ariel J. Feldman, J. Alex Halderman, and Edward W. Felten
http://itpolicy.princeton.edu/voting/summary.html

Main Findings The main findings of our study are:

1. Malicious software running on a single voting machine can steal votes with little if any risk of detection. The malicious software can modify all of the records, audit logs, and counters kept by the voting machine, so that even careful forensic examination of these records will find nothing amiss. We have constructed demonstration software that carries out this vote-stealing attack.

2. Anyone who has physical access to a voting machine, or to a memory card that will later be inserted into a machine, can install said malicious software using a simple method that takes as little as one minute. In practice, poll workers and others often have unsupervised access to the machines.

3. AccuVote-TS machines are susceptible to voting-machine viruses — computer viruses that can spread malicious software automatically and invisibly from machine to machine during normal pre- and post-election activity. We have constructed a demonstration virus that spreads in this way, installing our demonstration vote-stealing program on every machine it infects.

4. While some of these problems can be eliminated by improving Diebold's software, others cannot be remedied without replacing the machines' hardware. Changes to election procedures would also be required to ensure security.


Security Assessment of the Diebold Optical Scan Voting Terminal
A. Kiayias L. Michel A. Russell A. A. Shvartsman
UConn VoTeR Center and
Department of Computer Science and Engineering,
University of Connecticut
{akiayias,ldm,acr,aas}@cse.uconn.edu
with the assistance of
M. Korman, A. See, N. Shashidhar, D. Walluck
October 30, 2006
------------------------------------------
In particular we show that even if the memory card is sealed and pre-election testing is performed, one can carry out a devastating array of attacks against an election using only off-the-shelf equipment and without having ever to access the card physically or opening the AV-OS system box. Our attacks include the following:
1. Neutralizing candidates. The votes cast for a candidate are not recorded.
2. Swapping candidates. The votes cast for two candidates are swapped.
3. Biased Reporting. The votes are counted correctly by the terminal, but they are reported incorrectly using conditionally-triggered biases.
Our attacks exploit the serial communication capability of the AV-OS and demonstrate how the attacker can easily take control of the machine and force it to compromise its sealed-in resident memory card. Moreover, we demonstrate how one can make the AV-OS appear to be uncompromised to an evaluator that performs a pre-election test by voting hand-counted ballots, or to an evaluator that examines the audit reports that are produced by the terminal. A corrupted terminal will in fact appear to be faithfully reporting any election procedure that is conducted prior to the day of the election, only to misreport its results on the day of the election.
We also present a low-tech “digital ballot stuffing” attack that is made possible due to the mechanical characteristics of the optical scan reader. This simple attack enables any voter to vote an arbitrary number of times using two Post-it-notes. This attack makes it imperative to have the terminal under constant supervision during elections.
The vulnerability assessment provided in this paper is based only on experimentation with the system. At no point in time had we used, or had access to, internal documentation from the manufacturer or the vendor, including internal machine specifications, source code of the machine’s operating system, layout of the data on the memory card, or the source of the GEMS ballot design and tabulation software. We developed attacks and software that compromises the elections from first principles, by observing system’s behavior and interaction with its environment. Based on this fact, we conclude that attackers with access to the components of the AVOS system can reverse-engineer it in ways that critically compromise its security, discover the vulnerabilities presented herein and develop the attacks that exploit them.
----------------------------------------------
4.1.3 Compromised Election Results
An election is deemed corrupted when the miscounted results get tabulated into the overall election totals. If this is performed manually using the printed receipts that are produced by a corrupted terminal, the corruption of an election would be immediate. The results can also be tabulated electronically, by consolidating memory cards using a terminal and communicating such results to the central tabulation system implemented in GEMS.
The compromised cards that contained the improperly aligned counters are accepted by the central tabulation system without any warning or any other indication that they may be corrupted.
Figure 9: The prepared ballot used for the re-voting attack. Ballot stuffing is as easy as obtaining a couple of standard Post-It notes if the terminal is not closely monitored during an election.
of an election would be immediate. The results can also be tabulated electronically, by consolidating memory cards using a terminal and communicating such results to the central tabulation system implemented in GEMS.
The compromised cards that contained the improperly aligned counters are accepted by the central tabulation system without any warning or any other indication that they may be corrupted.
4.2 Multiple Voting Using Two Post-It R

In this section we present a simple low-tech attack that is based on the following facts regarding the ballot feeding mechanism of the AV-OS terminal:
• The ballot-feed sensor is located on the right side of the slot. Feeding paper into the left side does not trigger the feed mechanism.
• Once a ballot is fed into the AV-OS, the rollers cease. It is thus possible to retract a ballot from the other side of the rollers. This is easily done even when the AV-OS has been properly locked into position atop the ballot box. Moreover, this can be done very quickly, so that the amount of extra votes is only limited to the amount of time the voter is able to spend alone with the ballot box on election day.
• The machine is unable to recognize ballots that have already been cast. Although the AV-OS verifies an election identifier which is global to every ballot in a precinct, it allows the same ballot to be cast as many times as desired.
UConn VoTeR Center Security Assessment of the Diebold Optical Scan Voting Terminal 13
We demonstrate how this vulnerability can be very easily exploited by any voter during the actual election if she is allowed to operate the machine without being observed by a poll-worker. See Figure 9 for an example of an AV-OS ballot with the two Post-it notes affixed to its side. The attacker in this case is allowed to use the machine while unattended and he can pull out and re-insert the shown ballot so that the same vote is cast multiple times.

http://voter.engr.uconn.edu/voter/Report-OS_files/uconn_report-os.pdf


Optical Scan Ballot Design
Douglas W. Jones
Sept 15, 2005
------------------------------
Resource requirements: The perpetrator must be in a position to control the design and printing of the ballots. For attacks targeted at the precinct level, this means that the perpetrator must either work for the ballot printer or the county. The printer can introduce alignment errors, while the county controls all of the textual content. For attacks that exploit different ballot designs from county to county, the perpetrator must either control many county election offices or must work in a supervisory role at the state level. The state officer who approves ballot content can do quite a bit if he simply gives a free rein to incompetent county election administrators in counties controlled by the opposition while extending help primarily to election administrators in counties favoring the ruling party.
Potential gain:
Rates of voter error have exceeded 10% in some jurisdictions during some elections. If this error can be controlled so that these high rates occur primarily in communities where opposition voters are likely to vote, the net benefit, in terms of the final election total, could easily be on the order of 1% or more.
Likelihood of detection:
Anything involving ballot design is public record, and the ballots themselves remain to be examined for 22 months after the election. Should a candidate suspect that there has been deliberate misprinting of index marks or voting targets, this can easily be detected if the ballots are available for examination. There is a common catch-22 here: In many jurisdictions, attempts to examine the actual ballots have been blocked because the person wanting to make the examination had no proof that there was anything wrong. The proof, of course, rested in the ballots themselves. Bad human factors in ballot design is so widespread that any deliberate manipulation of the design can be easily hidden or blamed on incompetent underlings or local officials.
http://vote.nist.gov/threats/papers/optical_scan_ballot_design.pdf

Ballot Definition Files
No Review Is Provided
for a Key Component of Voting System Software

Flawed Ballot Definition Files on Optical Scanners and Punch Card Machines
While the cause of many election miscounts is not clear, many other miscounts suggest that the ballot definitions were programmed incorrectly. Here are several examples of elections in which errors in the ballot definition file definitely caused the problems:
November 2000. Bernalillo County, New Mexico. A flawed ballot definition file for the presidential
election caused 67,000 absentee and early-voting ballots to be counted incorrectly by the Diebold
AccuVote OS optical scan machine. The ballot programmer had neglected to link the candidates'
names to their respective parties.14

September 2002. Union County, Florida. A programming error caused ES&S Model 100 machines to
read 2,642 Democratic and Republican votes as entirely Republican in the September 2002 election.

November 2002, Wayne County, North Carolina. A programming error caused the Optech Eagle optical
scan machines to skip several thousand party-line votes, both Republican and Democrat. Correcting
the error turned up 5,500 more votes and reversed the outcome for the House District 11 state
representative race.20

April 2003, Lake County, Illinois. An ES&S ballot programming error failed to account for "no
candidate" listings in some races on the ballot, and results were placed next to the names of the
wrong candidates in four races. Correcting the problem changed the outcomes in some races.21

May 2004, Craighead County, Arkansas. The chip programmed by ES&S for the county's optical scanner
gave one candidate all the votes for constable. A manual recount revealed the error. 22

November 2004, Medford, Wisconsin. ES&S programmers failed to set up the optical scanners to read
straight-party votes. About 600 of the 2,256 ballots cast were not counted.23

June 2006, Pottawattamie County, Iowa. ES&S set up the ballot data and created the test deck, but failed to account for candidate rotation, so votes were tallied wrong in the rotated races.24
The following miscount strongly suggests that the candidates were simply switched in the ballot data of the computer in "one ward."

August 2002. Clay County, Kansas. The tabulation machine showed that one candidate for commissioner
had won, but a hand recount showed that his opponent had won by a landslide. In one ward, the
computer had mistakenly reversed the totals.25
Though the cause of the following problem wasn't fully analyzed, the symptoms suggest that the ballot definition file in the central tabulation computer didn't match those on the data packs.

November 2002. Baldwin County, Alabama. The ES&S Optech 3P Eagle optical scanners printed out
results of the gubernatorial election when the polls closed. Then the data packs were taken to the
central computer to be tabulated, and the tabulation machine, which gave different results, showed
the election was won by the wrong candidate. Three other counties had the same problem, but they
corrected the problem by typing in the vote totals rather than reading the data packs.26
The ballot program in the memory packs read the ballots incorrectly. The vendor, ES&S, accepted
responsibility for the programming error and paid for a hand recount. 15

September 2002. Robeson County, North Carolina. Ballot tabulating machines failed to work properly in 31 of 41 precincts. Local election officials said the problem was the result of a software glitch, and ballots had to be recounted. There had been a problem in the programming of the memory cards. 16


November 2002. Scurry County, Texas. A landslide victory for two commissioner candidates caused poll workers to question the results. The chip in the ES&S 650 contained an incorrect ballot program. ES&S sent a new chip, and the county officials also counted the votes by hand. The opposing candidates actually won by large margins.18
http://www.votersunite.org/info/BallotProgramming.pdf
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BradBlog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 03:13 AM
Response to Original message
13. BRAD BLOG (me) never said anything of the kind, as you imply - The title of this post = pure disinfo
Edited on Mon Jan-21-08 03:18 AM by BradBlog
How can I be "refuted" for a case I never made?

Your title is as obnoxious as it is incorrect, misleading, and ultimately self-defeating (under the presumption that you give a damn about accurate, verified democracy, anyway.)

Brad
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-21-08 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #13
17. more likely honest misunderstanding
Personally, I thought it was close to "pure disinfo" when you attributed to DHinMI "the conspiracy theory that... the unverified and uncounted election results, as announced, are somehow magically known to be accurate." But that was probably honest misunderstanding as well.

IMHO you could stand to choose your fights more carefully.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-22-08 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
22. Go Walter!1!
Keep propping up the electronic voting machines. They are sure to send a check your way if you can keep them in bizz.

Meanwhile the rest of us would like to have our votes counted as cast and your history is one of no help in that regard. So, Walter, kiss off, eh?
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-23-08 05:20 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. yeah, you really hated his work on FL-13
Democrat Christine Jennings is touting results of an independent study that cites new evidence of machine failure in Sarasota County and concludes that misleading ballot design, voter turnoff and other theories do not account for the "extraordinarily high undervote rate" in the county.

The authors of the report, who said they performed a statistical analysis of electronic ballot and "event log data" from the November election, said they were "unable to propose a convincing mechanism based on voter, machine or ballot characteristics that completely explains the phenomenon.

"In a nutshell," wrote authors David Dill and Walter Mebane, "the excessive CD-13 undervote rate in Sarasota County is not yet well-understood and will not be understood without further investigation."

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2007/01/theres_more_tha.html

Eh, who cares what Christine Jennings thinks?
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Huh?
Mebane hardly did a damn thing. No conclusions, no determinations of what really happened. Heck, anyone could have done what he did, given the resources.

Now, if you can post a Mebane critique of the machines which lays bare the ineptness of using those machines to count the votes, you and him would be getting somewhere, eh?

Don't worry, I won't hold my breath.
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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. wow
Same planet, different worlds.
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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Yep
Obviously you think the VCM are ok. And I don't.

Like you said before, you think NH vote was ok, and I don't.

Why, if you are from this planet, would you think a count by a machine is ok, especially when your Mebane has found the machines to have fucked up?

Why, and what world are you on?

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-24-08 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #28
29. I have a theory
that a random number generator writes your posts.
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