Bingo! "Prima Facie" for New Mexico Part 2 - MORE EVIDENCES!

The 2004 election results of New Mexico



Justice of the Supreme Court and Judge of the Court of Appeals got very similar ratios of Dem vs Rep votes. In every single county, the Dem Justice candidate got more % votes than Kerry! If Kerry got the average % votes of the Justice and Judge democratic candidates, he would have got about 55,000 more votes.

Now, here are the 2000 election results of New Mexico.



The 2000 election was nothing like the 2004 election in New Mexico.

It is well known that there was a "Nader factor" in 2000, and most Nader voters came from the democratic pool of voters. So, the combined votes for Gore and Nader are shown as actual democratic votes for the presidential race.

The table above shows the results of 2 judicial races, Judges of the Court of Appeals Districts 2 and 4. The total number of votes for dem judges (one incumbent and the other challenger) are less than the total votes for Gore and Nader in both races. At the county level, the numbers of votes for Gore + Nader and for democratic judge candidates are not very different. A republican candidate (incumbent) won for the Judge of the Court of Appeals Districts 1, and the dem candidate there got less votes than Gore. There was a Green Party candidate who got a good number of votes for the Judge of the Court of Appeals Districts 3, and the dem candidate (incumbent) there also got less votes than Gore.

There was no sign of "local dems get more votes than dem presidential candidate in the south" or "incumbent candidates always do well in New Mexico." These theories do not stand in the election 2000 in New Mexico.

Let's compare the total number of votes for the judge candidates in 2000 and 2004.

Democratic candidates (both incumbent)

Castillo (2000) Vigil (2004) Difference

290,636 405,044 +114,408

Republican candidates (both challenger)

Neumann (2000) Barber (2004) Difference

257,978 314,077 +56,099

I believe that these differences reflect the true turnout of new voters for democrats and republicans in New Mexico for 2004 election. The new voters who do not know much about judicial candidates would vote for the straight tickets as shown in sample ballots.

I'll give that Kerry might have got about 2% less votes than dem judicial candidates like Gore+Nader did. Then, I would say that Kerry would have got 40,000-55,000 more votes in New Mexico.

The original post "Bingo! "Prima Facie" for New Mexico" is at:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=87333

I accidentally deleted the original picture of the table at the Flickr.com and can’t replace it anymore. Sorry :cry:

There was a lot of interesting discussion in the thread.

Great Work

kick

I am kicking my own thread...

It was posted late last night and deserves more attention.

Please somebody agree with me!

Any more comments?

Without having looked very carefully, my impression is that there was a similar trend in 2000, albeit to a lesser degree, which might support the notion (which many of us here subscribe to) that the 2000 election was the proving ground for the tweaking of the vote. I'd try to get numbers from earlier elections if possible, 2000 is just too suspect still.

Also, you don't show the 3rd candidates in the 2004 numbers, although I imagine they are too small to make much difference (?).

Again, I didn't look very carefully, those are just quick impressions.

But the alarming thing is that this trend continues to appear here and there, so it's good to document.

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

I still think we should have a canvassing of suspect precincts using dem GOTV/ACT/Moveon information and then a revotein if necessary.
Circumvent the whole partisan election officials/courts/media.

Take it to the people.
T

Using your data, I took the margin of difference (Dem minus Rep) for each of the races in each year, then compared the 2004 margin against the 2000 margin. The numbers below in black indicate where the margin for the democratic candidate was increased in 2004; numbers in red indicate the democratic margin was lower in 2004 than in 2000.





Cautions: I did not verify any of your data with the original source. I'm also aware that comparing the 2004 Supreme Court race against the 2000 Court of Appeals race may be meaningless.

However .... there does seem to be a lot of red in the Presidential column, compared to the other two races - meaning the percentage of Bush voters increased from 2000 to 2004. I don't know that this proves anything, in and of itself, it merely provides an observation of a trend. It would take someone with a lot more demographic knowledge of New Mexico than I have to look at this and give it some kind of context.

n/t

n/t

Early exit polls (from freeman's paper) show NM with a Kerry advantage of about 2.6 % which is about the same margin as Gore+Nader vs. Bush in 2000.