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Miami won, or Buffalo choked?

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nickgutierrez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-05-05 08:48 PM
Original message
Poll question: Miami won, or Buffalo choked?
I'm sure the NFL fans here all saw what happened this past Sunday between the Dolphins and Bills, where the Dolphins came back from being 23-3 down in the 4th quarter to beat the Bills. My question is this: were the Dolphins that good, or were the Bills that bad in those final 11 minutes?
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-05-05 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
1. Any 4th quarter reversal of that magnitude is a choke
Just look at the necessity drive by drive. It basically requires:

* Stop
* TD
* Stop
* TD
* Stop
* TD

So any variance in one of the six possessions changes the outcome. You can even add the word "Quick" to the Stop notations. The probability of all six possessions tilting toward the trailing team by that degree is miniscule. If you applied a percentage before each drive it would equate to at least 50/1 against Miami pulling out the game with 3 TDs.

Plus the over/under of 4th quarter scoring in a game like that would have been about 10 points, so the Dolphins more than doubled it all by themselves, with a backup journeyman QB. That qualifies as a choke. Especially since it was so one dimensional. Miami threw to Chris Chambers 27 times during the game. And it's not like Buffalo should have welted in south Florida heat and humidity during December.
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nickgutierrez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Actually, I think the sequence here was:
Stop
TD
Stop
TD
Stop
INT
Stop
TD

Making it all the more unlikely. I think you're probably right.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 09:32 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Right, I forgot about the interception
That's a lot of possessions. Buffalo just needed a few first downs among those possessions and should have been able to get them with McGahee in the backfield. Losman has talent but as a first year starter he's very limited. I think Buffalo would have held on easily if Kelly Holcumb had been in the lineup.

I'm just amazed the bettors were all over Miami in that game. The line went from -3.5 early in the week to -6 on game day. That was my take number. Teams at .500 or lower have an abysmal record trying to cover 6 points or more at home. Yet every year the public is fascinated with giving points with losing teams. The only recent cover this season in that mode was Tennessee coming from behind to barely cover against the 49ers. Yet there's another one this week, Green Bay giving 6 to Detroit. Hell, I'm going to wait. The way things are going the public may steamroll that one up to -7 or higher.
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MsUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. How bout that Chambers kid eh??
Edited on Tue Dec-06-05 05:06 PM by MsUSA
He's from Wisconsin, and that Lee Evans for Buffalo was from Wisconsin too..... edit to add for Buffalo
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 10:25 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. I'm hoping he uses that game as a springboard
Edited on Tue Dec-06-05 10:26 PM by Awsi Dooger
I'm a Dolphin fan and Chris Chambers has been an incredibly frustrating player. He's by far the most discussed and debated player on Dolphin message boards. Chambers has great hands and leaping ability plus very good size and speed, but flubs easy catches every game. Even last week he dropped 3 or 4, plus one or two others that weren't impossible. The ongoing debate: is Chambers a legit #1 (feature) receiver or will he always be a tease who is better suited as a secondary receiver?

A few weeks ago Nick Saban called the reciving corps "decent." Chambers took that personally and demanded a meeting with Saban. According to reports, Saban repeated his critique and challenged Chambers to prove him wrong.

The nationwide perception of Chambers is much higher than among Dolphin fans for simple reason: ESPN, specifically NFL Primetime, always shows Chambers' leaping highlight grabs and ignores his frequent drops.
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MsUSA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-07-05 09:06 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. What do you think of the Packers Robert Ferguson???
Evidently the Packers had a chance to draft Chambers, and Mike Sherman took Ferguson instead. He hasn't had the career that was expected. I just wonder how they compare against each other.
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-07-05 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. I definitely prefer Chambers
Edited on Wed Dec-07-05 08:29 PM by Awsi Dooger
Ferguson is taller than Chambers but Chamber's leaping ability makes up for that. Chambers also plays with more conficence, that athletic arrogance you need in a WR. Ferguson has battled a knee injury this year but even when healthy he hasn't been as good as I expected, this year or since being drafted out of A&M. I don't remember one season in which he had a big impact.

Very true, I remember there being debate which one of the two was better during that draft. Ferguson was picked higher in the second round than i expected then Chambers fell to late 2nd round. Ferguson was one of those guys who improved his stock with offseason workouts and tape measure numbers. Those don't always equate to football ability.
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nickgutierrez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-07-05 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. I remember watching Chambers' highlights during the draft that year
I wondered how the hell he possibly could have dropped to the second round - the catches he made were just unreal. And yeah, he's made a few of them in the pros, too, but he's had a handful of really bad drops this year that arguably have cost the Dolphins a game or two. I like him, and I think he's a very good reciever, but he needs to focus better on the easy catches.
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Politically_Wrong Donating Member (258 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-07-05 08:16 AM
Response to Original message
6. Hello, my name is John...and I'm a Buffalo Bills fan...
It makes me very upset when we loose...but it was even worse that this loss was to the Phins...excuse me while I go cry myself to sleep...
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nickgutierrez Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-07-05 09:59 AM
Response to Reply #6
8. I'm a Dolphins fan.
All I have to say is this: "About damn time we won one of those." You see, we lost two other games in the last drive where we got down inside the 10 yard line and failed to score. I fully expected it to happen again. :)
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Awsi Dooger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-08-05 03:00 AM
Response to Reply #8
12. I did too, especially when we threw the fade on 4th down
That's never supposed to work. It's basically a bail-out play screaming, "hey, we can't think of, or execute, anything else."

Luckily we got a good matchup against Chambers. If that play had failed offensive coordinator Scott Linehan would have been under the broiler again because of the two late game failures you mentioned, against Atlanta and New England.

That game was big for me because I bet Miami to win at least 5 games. Now I can only win or push.
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DaveinMD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-07-05 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
9. doesn't matter
they are both awful teams.
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