NY Giants Big-Blueprint for Victory

(read this whole site; the folks who run it are New Englanders and are thus self-described "Patriots rump-swabs," but 100% of this website is about straightforward statistical analysis of all levels of NFL football...they live to poop from great height upon mainstream-sports-press pundits...and most importantly, they DO NOT do the Pats-homer-fan thing; they stand on the stats, no matter what those stats say, and they have been eerily accurate in their '07-season analyses to date)

New York's Big-Blueprint for Victory
Cold Hard Football Facts
January 29, 2008

Two weeks ago, on the eve of the AFC championship game, the Cold, Hard Football Facts – courtesy of their infinite largesse – offered the world the “baby-blueprint” the Chargers must employ to beat the Patriots. It was, if we might be so humble, the single most cogent piece of analysis offered anywhere on Planet Pigskin in the past 25 years.

We outlined three things San Diego must do – based solely upon its statistical strengths in 2007 – to beat the undefeated Patriots. The Chargers accomplished two of our tasks. They failed to accomplish the third. And, naturally, that failure to follow our baby-blueprint proved the difference between victory and defeat.

All of which brings us around to the Giants, and their Big-Blueprint for Victory. The Giants are overwhelming underdogs, on the short end of the greatest mismatch in Super Bowl or NFL championship game history. The methods they must employ to topple the Patriots are not nearly as clear as they were for the Chargers, who were a statistical juggernaut in 2007.

But there is a way the Giants can win: they must cast aside the cliches of the pigskin "pundits" and the failed strategies of losers past and follow the Cold, Hard Football Facts Big-Blueprint for Victory.

Big-Blueprint: Establish the pass

The pigskin “pundits” will tell you that the key for the Giants is to “establish the run” and “control the clock” with "bruising" Brandon Jacobs (there, we just wrote the introduction to half the stories you'll read on ESPN this week).

The Cold, Hard Football Facts have beat down this "establish the run" myth so many times over the years it reminds us of one of those gopher games you see at the county fair. Teams win in the NFL because they pass the ball better than their opponents. It’s simple as that. And the Giants will win if they pass the ball better than New England on Sunday.

(snip)

Big-Blueprint: Force five negative pass plays

We laugh when we read those inferior “blueprints” for beating New England – as if throwing tired, tawdry clichés onto a computer screen somehow qualify as a “blueprint.” These inferior blueprints always tout the need to “put pressure on Brady,” as if Halas, Brown, Lombardi, Noll and Walsh never thought of pressuring the other team’s quarterback. But John Clayton did. We hate to break this to the socially inept pencil-necked pigskin “pundits” of the world, but we’re fairly certain that getting pressure on the quarterback – let alone on Brady – is part of the game plan for every team in every game in every league in every year in the history of football.

We’re pretty sure, for example, that the Rams planned to put pressure on Otto Graham in the 1950 NFL title game, or that the Giants planned to put pressure on Johnny Unitas in the 1958 and 1959 title games, or that the Bengals planned to put pressure on Joe Montana in Super Bowls XVI and XXIII.

The question is not, “Should Team X pressure the quarterback?” The question any pigskin "pundit" must ask is, “Can Team X pressure the quarterback?” In the case of the Giants, the answer is yes...

(snip)

Big-Blueprint: Throw 0 INTs

We’ll make this very short and sweet: if Eli Manning throws 1 pick – just one – the Giants will not win the game. If he goes his fourth straight game without a pick, a period of 93 pass attempts, the Giants have a fighting chance.

By now, you're probably familiar with the Cold, Hard Football Facts postseason interception ladder. Your chances of winning in the playoffs decline by about 20 percentage points with every single INT your team throws. Here's a look at the records of teams in every playoff game of the Super Bowl Era, based upon number of INTs.

0 INT – 181-49 (.787)
1 INT – 136-109 (.555)
2 INT – 53-115 (.315)
3 INT – 17-76 (.183)
4 INT – 1-26 (.037)
5+ INT – 0-13 (.000)

The chart is pretty clear. Throw 1 INT or less, and you have a pretty good chance of winning. Throw two or more INTs and you're probably going to lose.

(snip)

Big-Blueprint: Pull off another Special Teams explosion

One of the secrets to New York’s ability to lose competitively to New England in Week 17 was their special teams play. Namely, Domenik Hixon returned a kick 74 yards for a TD, a play that changed the entire complexion of the game – at least for the first 40 minutes.

The Giants, however, ranked just 28th this season in our Special Teams Index (he Patriots, for their part, ranked 10th). They hardly have an advantage over the Patriots in this area.

(snip)

Big-Blueprint: Play four quarters

The Patriots have utterly dominated the fourth quarter this year, especially in the few games in which they were given a battle through three quarters. Six opponents this year fought the Patriots into the fourth quarter (Dallas, Indy, Philly, Baltimore, NY Giants and San Diego). The list includes four playoff teams and two final-four contenders.

Apparently, these six teams were content with three quarters of football: the Patriots outscored these six teams 70-24 in the fourth quarter...

...the whole article, good stuff: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2123_New_York%27s_Big-Blueprint_for_Victory.html

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P.S. That "greatest mismatch" claim in the opening paragraph above is explained here:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_2117_Mismatch_of_the_Century.html

Greatest mismatch in the standings
Greatest mismatch on the scoreboard
Greatest mismatch on offense
Greatest mismatch at quarterback
Greatest mismatch against Quality Opponents
Greatest mismatch of win streaks
Greatest mismatch, period

Read on...

:toast:

The one thing the Super Bowl has that the regular season and play-offs don't have... the ultimate pressure!

The advice on the passing game is spot on - I don't think the Giants can run the ball on the Pats consistently enough to control the game - but if Burress, Manning and the rest of the receiving corp have the kind of game they had against the Pack - they do have the ability to move the ball against the Pats through the air.

Let's face it, though - and I say this as a Giants fan - it's going to take a lot of mistakes from NE (which they don't do), a flawless game from the Giants, and a heaping helping of luck from the Football Gods for the Giants to beat the Patriots.

Still, they've surprised me twice already this postseason, and, like they say - "on any given Sunday"...

That's why we bother to watch the game, isn't it?

:toast:

There was no way on paper that the Broncos would beat the Packers.

I wouldn't bet on the Giants. But I hope they make it a game. I don't want to be bored by the 2nd quarter.

Good luck to your Pats. I don't like the Giants, but I hafta cheer for the NFC.

:bounce:

If the Giants don't turn it over, they have a good chance of winning.

If the Pats don't turn it over, they WILL win.

just my 2 cents.

It's going to be closer than most people think and be a good game. Jints will cover the spread, but probably won't win. But they DO have a chance.

This is a good analysis you've posted and I agree with it. Although I would simplify to say that the game will pretty much hinge on Eli's performance alone. Brady could have a bad game and the Pat's could still win. Eli MUST play like he's been playing so far in the playoffs, and then some for the Jints to win.

of course any team that blocks a kick of any kind wins something like 80% of the time.

Just saying.

Score more fucking points.

It has an 100% success rate.