Fate of N.Y.'s same-sex marriage bill hinges on votes of undecided state senators

ALBANY — A small group of undecided state senators could determine whether same-sex marriage will become legal in New York, a survey by Gannett's Albany Bureau found.

Eight senators — including the two who represent Dutchess County — indicated they are undecided on whether they would support same-sex marriage legislation if the bill comes to a vote, a survey of all 62 senators found.

The measure would need 32 votes for adoption in the Senate, and 26 senators, all Democrats, indicated they would back the bill. Twenty-eight senators expressed opposition — possibly leaving the measure's fate in the hands of the eight undecided lawmakers, five Republicans and three Democrats.

The senators who have not publicly declared their stance include Sens. Steve Saland, R-Poughkeepsie; Greg Ball, R-Carmel, Putnam County; and James Alesi, R-Perinton, Monroe County. Alesi and Saland voted against the bill in 2009 when it failed by eight votes.

http://www.democratandchronicle.com/article/BK/20110529/NEWS01/105290395/Fate-N-Y-s-same-sex-marriage-bill-hinges-votes-undecided-state-senators?odyssey=nav|head

crap

Part of the reason some of those Senators are "undeclared" is because it's beneficial for them to be seen as potential pickups. In that case, pro-marriage groups are more likely to work on lobbying them than replacing them.

Frankly, I don't really expect this to pass unless Cuomo cuts a deal, probably giving up something else like non-partisan redistricting.