Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle - Democratic Underground

rman

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Fri Dec-22-06 04:39 AM
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Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle
12.21.2006
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm

Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 "looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.

<snip>

Above: Peaks in geomagnetic activity (red) foretell solar maxima (black) more than six years in advance.

In the plot, above, black curves are solar cycles; the amplitude is the sunspot number. Red curves are geomagnetic indices, specifically the Inter-hour Variability Index or IHV. "These indices are derived from magnetometer data recorded at two points on opposite sides of Earth: one in England and another in Australia. IHV data have been taken every day since 1868," says Hathaway.

Cross correlating sunspot number vs. IHV, they found that the IHV predicts the amplitude of the solar cycle 6-plus years in advance with a 94% correlation coefficient.

"We don't know why this works," says Hathaway. The underlying physics is a mystery. "But it does work."

According to their analysis, the next Solar Maximum should peak around 2010 with a sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25. This would make it one of the strongest solar cycles of the past fifty years—which is to say, one of the strongest in recorded history.

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AndyTiedye

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Fri Dec-22-06 04:48 AM
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1. CQ DX...

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rman

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Fri Dec-22-06 05:29 AM
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2. QTH?

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bananas

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Fri Dec-22-06 05:31 AM
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3. We're all gonna get fried. nt

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soothsayer

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Fri Dec-22-06 07:51 AM
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4. lol, I predict it, too, judging by all the CMEs we've had already!

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