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Is it possible to win the war in Iraq?

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 04:28 PM
Original message
Is it possible to win the war in Iraq?
Edited on Tue Dec-06-05 04:29 PM by ProSense
First, we shouldn't be fighting a "war" in Iraq.

Bush says that it's better to fight them there than here, but it was Bush's war that opened the door for terrorists to enter Iraq. (I keep thinking about an analogy: the police (Bush) enters a home to remove a violent spouse (Saddam) and overstays his welcome, sets up a command post in the house to fight the criminals in the neighborhood and the situation becomes chaotic when the relatives of both spouses join the fight to try to reclaim the family's home.)

The Iraqis want Americans to leave.

Who are American soldiers fighting (in the majority)?

If this war could be won, who would lose? Right now it seems to me the people being killed are Iraqis. If this war could be won, will the terrorists be defeated?

Is the hope that if Americans stay there long enough the Iraqis will come around to accepting US presence? If we're fighting an insurgency (Iraqis), how long before it's quelled?

Thoughts?
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 04:36 PM
Response to Original message
1. Win what???
What can WE possibly win in Iraq? The opportunity for our troops to come home? What else is there? :shrug:

Ending the insurgency? Leave and it'll end. Or they'll have a civil war and it will be THEIRS to fight. They'll have to sell oil to fight it, so we won't be losing that.

I have no figgin' clue what that statement means. Or how anybody can connect it to the war on terror, say Bush is doing a bad job in Iraq, then say Bush is doing good on the war on terror. Makes no sense to me at all.


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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 04:38 PM
Response to Original message
2. No it is not, and except for Bush and his cronies, nobody is saying
we can win it. First, what does that mean: win it. Officially, we went there to change the regime and get rid of WMDs. There were no WMDs. Saddam is no more in power. Why are we fighting now?

- a stable Iraq? It should not be our role to fight for that. If the Iraqis do now, then who will do it?

- defend our interests in the ME? What are they? What will it take?

- avoid Iran involvement in Iraq. Why is it our role to decide with whom the Iraqis will work?

- have military bases and economic interests: ? May be we can win that, but at what price and is it something the American people want?

Some people are just trying to get out while limiting the damages. I think that this is what most Democrats are looking for, whatever their solution is, but I think we all know we cannot win in Iraq. We have already lost.
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sandnsea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #2
13. Based on your criteria
I'd say we already won what we said we were after, Saddam gone and no WMD. If the aftermath didn't turn out the way we planned, well that's democracy. I liked Murtha's take, the military accomplished the goals that Bush supposedly went into accomplish. They won their battles. Now it's time for diplomacy and the regional powers to resolve the rest of it.
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WildEyedLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 04:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. I don't know, but
Dean is once again the Great Leftist Hope for saying that we can't "win" the war. But only Kerry has called for a timed withdrawal based on actually handing over power to Iraqi authorities and NO PERMANENT BASES.

I tend to trust JK's plan more than anyone else's, but that's because I trust HIM more than Dean or any other Dem who has proposed a plan. Murtha is the other one whose sincerity I do not at all question, but I simply find JK's plan better on its own merits.

Why did Dean wait until after Kerry et al. have spoken up about Iraq to make a statement that, to me, seems to degrade ALL Dem plans for withdrawal? Maybe I'm just in a pissy mood and being too harsh and ascribing motivations that aren't there, but this smells funny to me.
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Mass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. WEL, Dean's plan is in fact Korb's plan, and Dean never said it was
HIS plan, to my knowledge.

It has good aspects, such as the fact that the reserve and the NG be brought back just after the election, and there was a good surprise: Dean said clearly that there should be no permanent involvement in Iraq.

I have more issues with the part where troops stay somewhere else in the ME, but I had the same issues with Murtha.

Now, read what Dean has actually said, not the threads on GD. It is really not worth so much anger. Some people read what they wanted and totally distorted what he said in order to go after Kerry.

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WildEyedLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 05:09 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. I'm more frustrated with people than with Dean himself
But that said I do think people are taking his quote about not being able to win and using it to attack Dems who are not "out now" - which of course Dean is not either. They seem unable to understand the difference between saying we can pull out while successfully turning over authority to Iraqis and saying we can "win" whatever objectives Bush has defined for us (which he hasn't). It's just useless semantics that divide liberals who all essentially want the same thing (excepting those like Lieberman who actually are in favor of a continued, permanent prescence in Iraq).
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. I think he may just have a tin ear
Edited on Tue Dec-06-05 05:03 PM by karynnj
Of course there's no way to win, but does he expect people to line up behind someone who says we can't win? Kerry skirted the issue beautifully when he said you have to redefine victory.

What I like about Kerry's plan versus the others (excepting Murtha) is the concern for the soldiers. No matter how the right spins it, Kerry's point that the Iraqis should be going into Iraqi homes, not us would immediately make our soldiers safer, likely spare them additional psychological damage and make the local Iraqis less anti-American.

Someone on the main board was making the point that as a 4 star General, Clark had the knowledge of what to do - and he pretty much implied the others should just defer to him. Aside from the fact that there is a reason civilian leadership is in charge, everyone making a plan has their own background. Kerry's reflects his passion for diplomacy, his seeming ability to see a complicated situation and meticulously work out many little pieces and his observations as a very intelligent sensitive 25 year old who saw the effect of not understanding culture or language and doing similar policing and Search and destroy missions. Somehow, Murtha decades after being a Col and Kerry decades after being a lt both seem to express more feeling for the low level soldiers on the ground than Clark does.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 04:48 PM
Response to Original message
4. it's the #1 question I'd like Kerry or somebody to address!
The RW always says, "we're fighting them there so we won't have to fight them here". I hear this at least once every two days on Washington Journal on Cspan from wingnut callers. I would love for some good Dem to please get into the media and deconstruct that sentence! Until we can shoot holes in this idea, the uninformed will never give it up that notion.

I'd like this Democrat to say that "they" aren't all one self- contained army, and there is no reason that they can't fight us in many places at once. In fact, "they" are only honing their skills in Iraq for whenever they decide to come over and "fight us over here".

Second, I'd like this Dem spokesperson to question the morality of using someone else's country to wage a war, rather than inflict a nasty guerilla war on our own people! This is racism and exploitation at its finest.

These wingnuts need to get over their delusions that this war is making us safer from terrorism!
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beachmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #4
7. Actually, we've already won.
What did * want? He wanted regime change and he wanted to disarm Iraq of WMD. Both are done. Of course, one was done before we went in, but that's another story.

But the second part was the neocon part -- "remaking the Middle East" and democratizing it. I do remember * talking about this at the AEI shortly before the war, but certainly not for the IWR vote. I remember at the time that * was tacking on reason after reason to go to war, especially at the last minute. It was like he already knew the WMD stuff wasn't going to be that compelling once we went in. But what * wants now is this second part. That's what he means when he talks about "victory". Sorry, but I don't want an Empire in the Middle East. I just don't. If democracy flourishes in the ME in a natural way that is just great. But not democracy created solely from the American gun. It's not real, and it will collapse once we leave.

So what we're left with is trying to prevent VERY BAD things from happening in Iraq and elsewhere as a result of this war we wanted. "Victory" has now become what is the least worst result we can create in Iraq with the least amount of casualties. In this sense, I am on board with Kerry, but I just think that the "least worst" result is going to be HORRIBLE. The choice is neverending American casualties or mass ethnic cleansing like what happened in the former Yugoslavia. That's why I am pessimistic.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #4
10. This is Kerry
Edited on Tue Dec-06-05 05:15 PM by ProSense
This information below (snips of key paragraphs) is from the NYT Magazine last year. The media, bent on its warped portrayal of Kerry completely attacked this article by distorting the message. The article itself is colored with a lot of mis-characterizations. When it came out, I wondered why the media kept trashing it. Keeping this in mind, I read it for Kerry's message. And the following are the key points and to me is exactly what this debate is about today---everything that's folded into his excellent strategy to exit Iraq and continue to fight global terrorism:


While Bush and much of the country seemed remade by the historic events of 9/11, Democrats in Washington were slow to understand that the attacks had to change them in some way too. What adjustments they made were, at first, defensive. Spooked by Bush's surging popularity and the nation's suddenly ascendant mood of patriotism, Democrats stifled their instinctive concerns over civil liberties; and whatever their previous misgivings about intervention, many Congressional Democrats, a year after the terrorist attacks, voted to give Bush the authority to invade Iraq.

What few Democrats did at the time was think creatively about the new world of foreign policy. The candidates who began their runs for the presidency last year, from Dennis Kucinich and his peace platform on the left to Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt on the other side of the spectrum, attacked the president's foreign policy from different directions, but if any new ideas emerged during those months, they were soon drowned out by the booming anti-war voice of Howard Dean. When Kerry emerged as the most palatable alternative, he at first ran mostly on the viability of his personal story, focusing more on his combat experience in Vietnam than on any plan to fight Al Qaeda or remake Iraq. Only since Labor Day has Kerry begun to sharpen his distinctions with Bush on national security and foreign policy. In a series of combative speeches and statements, and in a crisp performance at the first head-to-head debate, Kerry has argued that Bush's war in Iraq is a disaster, that troops should be brought home before the end of the next presidential term and that the Iraq war is a ''profound diversion'' from the war on terror and the real showdown with Al Qaeda.

What Kerry still has not done is to articulate clearly a larger foreign-policy vision, his own overarching alternative to Bush's global war on terror. The difference between the two men was clear during the foreign-policy debate in Florida 10 days ago. Kerry seemed dominant for much of the exchange, making clear arguments on a range of specific challenges -- the war in Iraq, negotiations with North Korea, relations with Russia. But while Kerry bore in on ground-level details, Bush, in defending his policies, seemed, characteristically, to be looking at the world from a much higher altitude, repeating in his brief and sometimes agitated statements a single unifying worldview: America is the world's great force for freedom, unsparing in its use of pre-emptive might and unstinting in its determination to stamp out tyranny and terrorism. Kerry seemed to offer no grand thematic equivalent.

Inside liberal think-tanks, there are Democratic foreign-policy experts who are challenging some of Bush's most basic assumptions about the post-9/11 world -- including, most provocatively, the very idea that we are, in fact, in a war. But Kerry has tended to steer clear of this conversation, preferring to attack Bush for the way he is fighting terrorism rather than for the way in which he perceives and frames the threat itself.

The argument going on in Washington has its roots in the dark years of the cold war. Just about everyone agrees that many factors contributed to America's triumph over world communism -- but people differ on which of those factors were most important. The neo-conservatives who shaped Reagan's anti-Soviet policy and now shape Bush's war on terror have long held that the ''twilight struggle'' with the Soviet empire was won primarily as a result of U.S. military intervention in several hemispheres and of Reagan's massive arms buildup, without which democracy and free markets could not have taken hold. Many liberals, on the other hand, have never been comfortable with that premise; while they acknowledge that American military power played a role, they contend that the long ideological struggle with communism ended chiefly because the stifling economic and social tenets of Marxism were unsustainable, and because a new leader emerged -- Mikhail Gorbachev -- who understood that. They see Islamic fanaticism, similarly, as a repressive ideology, born of complex societal conditions, that won't be defeated by any predominately military solution.

In the liberal view, the enemy this time -- an entirely new kind of ''non-state actor'' known as Al Qaeda -- more closely resembles an especially murderous drug cartel than it does the vaunted Red Army. Instead of military might, liberal thinkers believe, the moment calls for a combination of expansive diplomacy abroad and interdiction at home, an effort more akin to the war on drugs than to any conventional war of the last century.

Even Democrats who stress that combating terrorism should include a strong military option argue that the ''war on terror'' is a flawed construct. ''We're not in a war on terror, in the literal sense,'' says Richard Holbrooke, the Clinton-era diplomat who could well become Kerry's secretary of state. ''The war on terror is like saying 'the war on poverty.' It's just a metaphor. What we're really talking about is winning the ideological struggle so that people stop turning themselves into suicide bombers.''

These competing philosophies, neo-conservative and liberal, aren't mutually exclusive, of course. Neo-cons will agree that military operations are just one facet, albeit the main one, of their response to terrorism. And liberals are almost unanimous in their support for military force when the nation or its allies face an imminent and preventable threat; not only did the vast majority of liberal policy makers support the invasion of Afghanistan, but many also thought it should have been pursued more aggressively. Still, the philosophical difference between the two camps, applied to a conflict that may well last a generation, is both deep and distinct. Fundamentally, Bush sees the war on terror as a military campaign, not simply to protect American lives but also to preserve and spread American values around the world; his liberal critics see it more as an ideological campaign, one that will turn back a tide of resentment toward Americans and thus limit the peril they face at home.

Perhaps the most pressing question of the presidential campaign is where John Kerry stands in this debate. The man who would be the first Vietnam veteran to occupy the Oval Office has doggedly tried to merge both worldviews, repeatedly vowing to fight both a more fierce and a more restrained, multifaceted war on terror. Aides say this is evidence of his capacity to envision complex solutions for a complex world; voters, through the summer and early fall, seemed less impressed. In a typical poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News just before the first presidential debate, only 37 percent of the respondents agreed with the statement that Kerry would make the country safer. A New York Times/CBS News poll conducted in mid-September found that half the respondents thought Bush would make the right decisions to protect the nation from terrorism, compared with only 26 percent who said the same thing about Kerry.

What Kerry still has not done is to articulate clearly a larger foreign-policy vision, his own overarching alternative to Bush's global war on terror. The difference between the two men was clear during the foreign-policy debate in Florida 10 days ago. Kerry seemed dominant for much of the exchange, making clear arguments on a range of specific challenges -- the war in Iraq, negotiations with North Korea, relations with Russia. But while Kerry bore in on ground-level details, Bush, in defending his policies, seemed, characteristically, to be looking at the world from a much higher altitude, repeating in his brief and sometimes agitated statements a single unifying worldview: America is the world's great force for freedom, unsparing in its use of pre-emptive might and unstinting in its determination to stamp out tyranny and terrorism. Kerry seemed to offer no grand thematic equivalent.



Even Democrats who stress that combating terrorism should include a strong military option argue that the ''war on terror'' is a flawed construct. ''We're not in a war on terror, in the literal sense,'' says Richard Holbrooke, the Clinton-era diplomat who could well become Kerry's secretary of state. ''The war on terror is like saying 'the war on poverty.' It's just a metaphor. What we're really talking about is winning the ideological struggle so that people stop turning themselves into suicide bombers.''

This was a word that Kerry came back to repeatedly in our discussions; he told me he would wage a more ''effective'' war on terror no less than 18 times in two hours of conversations. The question, of course, was how.

''I think we can do a better job,'' Kerry said, ''of cutting off financing, of exposing groups, of working cooperatively across the globe, of improving our intelligence capabilities nationally and internationally, of training our military and deploying them differently, of specializing in special forces and special ops, of working with allies, and most importantly -- and I mean most importantly -- of restoring America's reputation as a country that listens, is sensitive, brings people to our side, is the seeker of peace, not war, and that uses our high moral ground and high-level values to augment us in the war on terror, not to diminish us.''



But when you listen carefully to what Bush and Kerry say, it becomes clear that the differences between them are more profound than the matter of who can be more effective in achieving the same ends. Bush casts the war on terror as a vast struggle that is likely to go on indefinitely, or at least as long as radical Islam commands fealty in regions of the world. In a rare moment of either candor or carelessness, or perhaps both, Bush told Matt Lauer on the ''Today'' show in August that he didn't think the United States could actually triumph in the war on terror in the foreseeable future. ''I don't think you can win it,'' he said -- a statement that he and his aides tried to disown but that had the ring of sincerity to it. He and other members of his administration have said that Americans should expect to be attacked again, and that the constant shadow of danger that hangs over major cities like New York and Washington is the cost of freedom. In his rhetoric, Bush suggests that terrorism for this generation of Americans is and should be an overwhelming and frightening reality.


In other words, Kerry was among the first policy makers in Washington to begin mapping out a strategy to combat an entirely new kind of enemy. Americans were conditioned, by two world wars and a long standoff with a rival superpower, to see foreign policy as a mix of cooperation and tension between civilized states. Kerry came to believe, however, that Americans were in greater danger from the more shadowy groups he had been investigating -- nonstate actors, armed with cellphones and laptops -- who might detonate suitcase bombs or release lethal chemicals into the subway just to make a point. They lived in remote regions and exploited weak governments. Their goal wasn't to govern states but to destabilize them.

The challenge of beating back these nonstate actors -- not just Islamic terrorists but all kinds of rogue forces -- is what Kerry meant by ''the dark side of globalization.'' He came closest to articulating this as an actual foreign-policy vision in a speech he gave at U.C.L.A. last February. ''The war on terror is not a clash of civilizations,'' he said then. ''It is a clash of civilization against chaos, of the best hopes of humanity against dogmatic fears of progress and the future.''

This stands in significant contrast to the Bush doctrine, which holds that the war on terror, if not exactly a clash of civilizations, is nonetheless a struggle between those states that would promote terrorism and those that would exterminate it. Bush, like Kerry, accepts the premise that America is endangered mainly by a new kind of adversary that claims no state or political entity as its own. But he does not accept the idea that those adversaries can ultimately survive and operate independently of states; in fact, he asserts that terrorist groups are inevitably the subsidiaries of irresponsible regimes. ''We must be prepared to stop rogue states and their terrorist clients,'' the National Security Strategy said, in a typical passage, ''before they are able to threaten or use weapons of mass destruction against the United States and our allies and friends.''


Kerry's view, on the other hand, suggests that it is the very premise of civilized states, rather than any one ideology, that is under attack. And no one state, acting alone, can possibly have much impact on the threat, because terrorists will always be able to move around, shelter their money and connect in cyberspace; there are no capitals for a superpower like the United States to bomb, no ambassadors to recall, no economies to sanction. The U.S. military searches for bin Laden, the Russians hunt for the Chechen terrorist Shamil Basayev and the Israelis fire missiles at Hamas bomb makers; in Kerry's world, these disparate terrorist elements make up a loosely affiliated network of diabolical villains, more connected to one another by tactics and ideology than they are to any one state sponsor. The conflict, in Kerry's formulation, pits the forces of order versus the forces of chaos, and only a unified community of nations can ensure that order prevails.


If forced democracy is ultimately Bush's panacea for the ills that haunt the world, as Kerry suggests it is, then Kerry's is diplomacy. Kerry mentions the importance of cooperating with the world community so often that some of his strongest supporters wish he would ease up a bit. (''When people hear multilateral, they think multi-mush,'' Biden despaired.) But multilateralism is not an abstraction to Kerry, whose father served as a career diplomat during the years after World War II. The only time I saw Kerry truly animated during two hours of conversation was when he talked about the ability of a president to build relationships with other leaders.

''We need to engage more directly and more respectfully with Islam, with the state of Islam, with religious leaders, mullahs, imams, clerics, in a way that proves this is not a clash with the British and the Americans and the old forces they remember from the colonial days,'' Kerry told me during a rare break from campaigning, in Seattle at the end of August. ''And that's all about your diplomacy.''



http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/10/magazine/10KERRY.html?ei=5090&en=8dcbffeaca117a9a&ex=1255147200&partner=rssuserland&pagewanted=all

(note that some paragraphs are in sequence and others skip to snips, check the full article)
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. The problem is that they are simply going on results
Fact 1: There is a war in Iraq
Fact 2: There has no been an Al Queada terrorist attack in the US since 911.

Therefore, 1 prevented 2 from happening.
THEY POSTULATE THIS RELATIONSHIP

Now, we can't prove if we didn't invade Iraq, that there would still not have been an attack. (It's highly likable, but not provable.)

In reality, there were only 2 attacks - one in 1993 (the first WTC) and 2001 - there were 8 years between them. Certainly there was no reason to expect yearly attacks.

Their our brand of logic (silly as it is) is they assume that there are a fixed number (n) of terrorist in the world who want to get us. They actually think if we kill 10,000 terrorists in Iraq - then rather than n terrorists there would be n - 10000 terrorists. They think they are drawn to Iraq likes bugs to a bug zapper and eventually there will be no more terrorists.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. yes, and that is what's so frustrating
In a way, they are thinking of this war as a conventional war like WWII was. We kill enough of "them" and they have to give up. End of war. So many people have that mentality.

Bush keeps talking about victory, but what does that mean? Jeffersonian Democracy in Iraq? It seems he doesn't want to define it so he can end it or extend it at will. And they talk about the Dems not "having a plan"? If people would just listen to Kerry they'd hear a plan--but so many only hear the sound bites.

I got so mad at Lou Dobbs tonight--he was going on and on about how the Dems have no plan and can only criticize, and even played a clip of Kerry from Sunday--a part where he is criticizing, but nothing of him talking about his plan! It is so infuriating!
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paulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-06-05 04:51 PM
Response to Original message
5. I want to scream every time I hear Bush say "win"
or "victory" or "stay the course".

Who defines the win? The victory? What course?

Nothing that asshole has said vis a vis Iraq has been based in anything but the fairyland inside of his (and his neocon buddie's) heads.

What the American people really want when it comes to Iraq is some truth - some honesty regarding what we're doing there and what our options are. Instead we get "victory" and "stay the course" and "anyone who disagrees with me is unAmerican".

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